We take a look at the Saratoga race card today and make our selections. We will be adding in our picks for the Del Mar card (with the Pick 6 carryover) a little later. Hope you have a good “hump day.” And, makes lots of money.
1st: This is a jump race and we stay away from those on “hump day.” It is a case of the jumps and the bumps.
2nd: 1-2-3-5…Top Brass (1) comes from the barn of Jason Servis, who has 3 wins and 2 seconds in 9 starts this meet so far. Add the fact that he has won with .28% of his starts all year (with 227 starters), then you have to figure. This one tried the turf to no avail in his last. Throw that one out and he gets my best number. Blaze’n Prospector (2) had all kinds of trouble in his last — at Churchill on June 4. Rider couldn’t have gotten in worse trouble if he had mapped it out. Gets a rider switch and change of venue today. Better luck makes this one a contender. Avast Matey (3) ships in from Florida with his rider, who is a darn good one. Heavily favored in the last two. Look out. I go with the 1 to win/place and then box the 1-2-3 and the 1-2-5 in the exactas.
3rd: 8-5-7-12-4-3-1…You have to look at the 13 & 9 if rains wash it off the turf, but if not, I go with the 8 — Astounding — on top for a Servis Daily Double. This true closer needs racing luck coming from the back, but when he is clear he can throw a big number at you. Carbon Data (5) is a Chad Brown nominee and they spent some money on this son of Birdstone ($275,000 at OBS March 2015). Hasn’t made it to the track enough to win back that payday, but has talent and this will be his fifth start this year. Cite (7) is owned by Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider. This son of Blame is a consistent sort who has hooked some good ones this year. Another closer who needs a bit of luck, but if he gets it — he could be gone. I bet the 8 to win/place and key over/under all the rest. I box the 8-5-7 in one smaller exacta.
4th: 6-7-1-3…Northern Screamer (6) will be saddled by Danny Gargan, who has 3 wins in 5 starts this meet. This one won by 8 lengths in his last out at Parx. Obviously, she has to step it up today, but she can step it and run it, too. Bon Heir (7) drops all the way from the high end Optional Claimer ranks down South to $20,000 claimers today for Joe Sharp — fresh off his Haskell win. She is a dead closer in a sprint race. Call Her Karma (1) is another one dropping and that, alone, should make her a contender. I bet the 6 to win/place and then box the top three.
5th: 2-6-7-1-4-12…Let’s Get Loud (2) is another Chad Brown entry today, and this one drops to the Maiden Claiming ranks for the first time. Brown is huge with his move, and should be again in this spot. Harlan’s Hunch (6) was picked up by Steve Asmussen two races ago and this one looks like he may be a good claim for the barn. Consistent sort has hit the board in 4 of 7 lifetime starts to date. Likely to do so again. Ninety One Assault (7) ran a real good one against SW Inspector Lynley last year. Always fairly close with no real move at the end. Needs to step it up and the class drop may help today. Key an eye on One Last Strike (12), who is 20-1 ML. May shock. I bet the 2 to win/place and then key over/under all the numbers — including the 12.
6th: 3-4-7-5-2-1…Tiz Super (3) nearly pulled off the trick in her last go at Belmont on July 3. Similar effort today may put her in the circle for the first time. Parade is a deep, deep closer for Shug McGaughey and she closed with a purpose in her last race, too, but didn’t make it up to the preferred one in here. Has a very cold rider named and that may compromise her chances. Devine Union (7) has run two solid ones against Lockdown. Could get there in first 2017 run today. I bet the 3 to win/place and then box the top 3 in one exacta and then wheel the top three over the bottom three in another smaller exacta.
7th: 11-7-8-6-1-5…My Best Bet of the Day is Startup Nation (11) in this spot. He was nipped a nose after a desperate drive from near the back of the pack in his first run in nearly a year on June 11, 2017. Has 2 wins in 3 starts at The Spa and ran a heck of a race against Diversidio in the Pennine Ridge Stakes at Belmont Park way back in 2015. Has trained well since his June run and I think he motors down this field of NY-breds today. Nevisian Sky (7) is another one for Chad Brown and he has won two of his last three. New York Song (8) has two wins in a row and will be coming from the back, too, in what appears to be a race full of closers.
8th: 9-4-7-8-3-5…This one truly has no speed in it whatsoever…or so it seems. That may set it up perfectly for Lucky Long (9), who is 6-1 in the ML and may drift up in the odds game. She is normally a stalker, but did flash a bit of speed three back when going a mile at Aqueduct. She may find herself on the lead in this 1 3/8ths mile marathon, and that may suit her just fine. Church Social (4) is a deep closer for McGaughey, who puts Junior Ortiz up on this one. This daughter of Pulpit has been ITM in 6 of 9 lifetime starts. Two strong seconds in a row. Homeland Security (7) moves up after her first win and faces winners for the first time. But she does appear talented for Chad Brown. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-4-7 and the 4-7-8.
9th: 3-2-1-7-10…Carina Mia (3), who will make her career debut for Chad Brown after having put up $1.1 million under the tutelage of Bill Mott, makes her first start since June 10. She is winless in 2017, but there are no Songbirds or Paulassilverlinings in this group. Winner today, IMO. Indulgent (2), Going for Broke (1), Clipthecouponannie (7) and Wheatfield (10) are all battling for the minor placings. I bet the 3 to win/place and then key over/under the rest.
10th: 5-7-9-8-10…Look out for the 12 if she draws into this one. If not, I go with Imperfect Union (5) on top. Ran a good one, flashing speed, until faltering late in her first career start back on July 1. Has worked very well since and should benefit from that experience. March X Press (7) is a first timer for Todd Pletcher and he scores a lot with these kinds. But his numbers on grass dips considerably and this one is scheduled for turf. May be vulnerable at a low price. Purely Lucky (9) is a first time starter for Brad Cox, who has two thirds in the only two outs this meet. This one is training OK and could pull a surprise. I bet the 5 to win/place and then key over/under all the rest.
Good Luck &
All the Best/Gene