|2018 Overall 1346||495-495-601|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.78%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.40%|
Only had two winners from the 10 races at KY Downs on Thursday, but we did score a nice $33.30 for $1 exacta play, and hit two more exactas that returned $10.20 and $18.50 per $1 wagered.
To date, we have touted 1,346 races this year, and our win percentage is still near .37%. Our top 3 have hit the board — as if you had wagered on them — nearly 40% of the time. Meaning, if I touted a horse first and it ran second, then we were credited with zero. If we touted a horse to run second and it won, we were credited with a second-place finisher. And, so on.
Here is a closer look at our plays at Arlington Park today:
5th: 1-2-5-6…Full Count (1) is our key play here. This 3YO filly by Haynesfield is trained by James DiVito, who is winning with .14% of his 37 horses to race here this meet. But he wins with .26% of those dropping from MSW to MCL and with .25% of those making the first start in a MCL event ever. This one gets back to the turf today, where she has a second and a third in three lifetime tries. The race two back was solid and she certainly figures on top here. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the other numbers listed.
6th: 1-3-2-6…Another grass race, this one going a mile, and I go right back to the rail here with a solid key play in All Call (1). This one is trained by the meet’s runaway leader and will be ridden by the meet’s runaway leading jockey. The two of them have teamed up to win with .31% of the last 67 tries together. This one was re-claimed by this barn two starts back and the 7YO won the last time out when reconnected. In 12 lifetime starts at this distance, he has a 6-1-3 record. And, he has done well over this course in the past, too, with 6-2-3 resume in 14 starts here. Rail is winning at .23% rate. Adds up for me. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the other numbers in the exacta.
7th: 4-3-7-6…Unscathed (4) is my key play in this 6.5-furlong dirt event. This is a 5YO, Illinois-bred gelding under the tutelage of trainer Larry Rivelli, as well. Will get top rider Jose Valdivia, Jr. up, too. This one is returning to Arlington after a short trip over to Presque Isle. Ran a tiring 6th over that artificial surface. But this one has a stellar 7-1-1 record over the all-weather in Chicago and should be right at home at home. My solid pick here. I bet the 4 to win/place and key over/under the other numbers in the exacta.
8th: 4-5-6-7-1-3…This turf sprint affair is a bit more wide open, on paper. I will go with a bit of an upset here with Voodoo Spell (5). This one is trained by Hugh Robertson, who is hitting with .18% of his 55 starters this meet. But he scores with .22% of those returning from this short layup, and he has been on a bit of a hot spell of late, winning 2 of the last 6 starts. This 7YO gelding has started at this sprint distance 25 times in his life. He has a 8-9-5 record. That means he has hit the board 22 of 25 times. Has only 2 wins in 13 attempts over this grass course, but looks ready for a top effort today. Love the 6-1 ML odds. The horse to beat is definitely to his inside, Good Bye Greg (4) — another trained by Rivelli. This one has won two of the last three and was second in the other. Has raced only twice at this sprint distance, and has one win. that was three races ago when he made the 2018 debut off a 8 month layoff. This one looks like he could be a tad better on the all-weather surface, though, and at 4-5 odds? I prefer to take a shot to beat him. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-4 solidly in one exacta. I key the 5-4 over/under the other numbers in two more.
9th: 4-3-1-5-7…Rocket Queen (4) will get my top billing here. This 3YO filly is getting a considerable class drop today, and the lower level should help her immensely. The trainer hits with .13% of those making the first ever start on the sod, and with .18% of those making the second start ever for the barn. Like the recent work pattern, and the new rider, too. Shorter distance could help this one sustain her speed, as well. Trainer hits with .36% of those switching from the all-weather over to the grass. Staria Peach (3) will get the saddle today from a trainer who is looking for the first win of the meet. Currently, she has an 0-2-1 record in just 13 starts. This one did make a nice run at this level last time out over the all-weather. The race before, she tired again at this level. Still figures to be close. Karah’s Channel (1) is 20-1 in the ML and my Upset Special. Gets a top rider and a significant drop in the class level. In the only start to date, she ran over a sloppy track at Fairmont Park. But she is by English Channel — whose progeny do so much better on the grass. Has the potential to move up today, IMO. I bet the 4-1 (take note) across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I key the 4-1 over/under the other numbers in two more.
Good Luck & All the Best/Gene