|Total Day Results||8/6-4-2|
|2021 Overall 412||412 / 138-143-167|
|Win % of Top Pick||33.50%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.25%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 250-412||60.92%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 174-284||61.27%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 99-284||34.86%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 48 / 21-10-3||43.75% Win / 70.83% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 66 / 31-14-3||46.97% Win / 72.73% ITM|
1st: 10-8-11/9-2-3-1/12/(13)-4-5-7…Excursion (10) ships in from Fair Hill for trainer Graham Motion, and picks up on the hottest riders on the grounds. Over the last week, this guy has won 8 of 18 races and that doesn’t include the first two on the card Friday night. Hot. Hot. Hot. This 3YO gelding is a son of Curlin and cost $325,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Took awhile to find his running shoes, but was third the last two times. Must find another gear late, but will run as a first-time gelding here. Barn wins with .17% when shipping in from another venue. Knopfler (8) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This 3YO son of Lookin a Lucky will pick up a huge rider switch to Chris Landeros for this one. Ran huge the first time out with Landeros in the saddle. Went widest of the wides in the last one and lost all ground and all chance. Comes back at 8-1 in the ML here. I love this one. Look out. Conundrum (11) goes for a bright young trainer, who has won with .25% of the first 20 starters here this meet. Ran third on debut here in late January. Been away since then, but the works at KEE are OK and picks up the winningest rider on the grounds. Interesting that Bejarano takes off to ride the top pick. Hmmm. I bet the 10-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10-8 over/under the 11-9-2-3-1-12 in two smaller units.
Pick 5: 10-8-11-9-2/1-6-10-8-2/10-8-9-7-11/10/7-12–$.50-cent wager = $125.00
2nd: 1-6-10/8-2/3-7/5-9/4…Gem Key (1) will draw the rail for the first trip back to the gate since last August at Ellis Park. Barn wins with only .09% when away from the game this long, but this one does pick up Lasix for the first time and a top rider for this circuit. Works in Florida are spot on, and one could/should expect a huge improvement here. The “Place” horse in the lone race came right back to win the next time out, too. Nurturing (6) comes from a barn operation that has won with .23% of the first 13 starters here this meet. You can double that win percentage when the barn sends out a horse for the third time after a layup. With beaten favorites, the trainer scores at a .22% clip. Adds up for a big run here, and this one did finish 2nd two times back. Big chance. Twirling Patti (10) is another long-shot possibility. This one goes for one of the best young trainers in the game today and gets Lasix for the first time. Has been training lights out and the barn wins with .28% when routing for the first time. Look for a big improvement here. I bet the 1-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8-2 in two smaller units and then key the 1-10 over/under the 6-8-2-3-7-5-9 in two smaller units, too.
3rd: 10-8-9/7-11/6-5-4/2…Woke Up to Aces (10) is 2-1 in the Brisnet.com ML, and could drop lower in the odds department by PT. This one has not been out since early February, but the barn wins off the bench at an .18% rate and this one gets a top rider, who is new to the KY circuit. Be fun to watch this guy hang his tack and ply his trade here in the Commonwealth. Rooting for him. Cut back in distance should help and the barn wins with .31% over the AW surfaces. Straitouttapopcorn (8) just loves this track. In 9 starts here? Has 5 wins and 3 seconds. Has won two in a row and the barn wins with .27% when the horse won the last time out, too. Likes the lead. Can she get it easily? Not sure. Paynterbynumbers (9) won the last tim out on the lead, too. Will ensure an honest press up front. Could set up perfectly for something rallying late? Could that be Leeway (11) at a big price? I bet the 10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10 over/under the numbers listed.
4th: 10/7-6-3-4/1/2-5…My first “Key Play of the Day” is no shocker to anyone. Beau Luminaire (10) is 3-5 odds in the ML. Wow. Don’t know if I have ever seen any horse enter the day with those kind of odds. But the one has run 6 straight seconds. Six. In a row. Gets a new rider today and one that knows how to find the winner’s circle. In 10 lifetime starts, this one has a win and 7 seconds. Could be 2nd again. But I am thinking a win. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then key the 10 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas.
5th: 7-12/6-1-(14)-2/8-3-4-5-9…Supremacy (7) goes for the barn of Brad Cox, who has won with .26% of his 31 starters here this meet. This one gets Lasix for th first time and the work at the Fair Grounds on March 21 suggests this one is ready to roll. Gets a top rider for the assignment, and he has won with .26% of the last 39 mounts for this barn operation. Barn wins with .27% in the 2nd career race. Jerry’s Secret (12) breaks from the far outside and will need a clean break and fast shoes to get out and clear. This one does have speed and a familiar rider in the saddle. Barn wins with .33% of those that return to the starter as a beaten favorite. Will have a chance here. I bet the 7-12 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 7-12 over/under the 6-1-14-2-8-3-4 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-7-6/2/1-5-4…Rushaway Stakes…Donegal Bay (3) is a 3YO gelded son of Uncle Mo and trained by HOFer Todd Pletcher. Last time out, this one was 7th and beaten 17 lengths in the G3 Withers Stakes. That one was won by Risk Taking, one of the more interesting candidates for this year’s KY Derby. The time before, though, this one won at Gulfstream Park to break the maiden by an impressive 4+ lengths. So, who is the real Donegal Bay? Probably somewhere in-between. Has been working very well of late and the barn is known to put their horses in the right spots. Could be a big threat here on the rebound. Be Here (7) won her impressively on March 4 for the tandem of trainer Jonathan Thomas and rider Chris Landeros. They have teamed up for 11 mounts this meet. They have won on .45% of the time. Nice. This one has trained lights out since the win, too. So of Ghostzappper could be good. Really good. I def bet this one. Cave Hill (6) is a homebred of Godolphin Stables and comes off a b better-than-looks 6th in the Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park last time out. Swung way wide in that one. Gets a new try here over the AW and the barn wins with .16% when switching from the turf to this surface. Chance. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2 in two smaller units. I will also key the 3-7 over/under the numbers listed in two more.
7th: 7-2-(14)-(13)-1/3-12-10/9-8-4…Latonia Stakes…Evil Lyn (7) is a 4YO daughter of Wicked Strong and comes into this one with a 6-2-3 record in the 17 career starts. Last time out was in mid-January, when she was 6th in the G3 Marshua River at GP. Before that, ran a good 2nd in the Pago Hop Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Will make the AW debut here, but does have a 5-1-1 mark over the sod. Like the last work and the rider is leading the jockey standings here. Threat. Ujjayi (2) was bred and is still owned by a great, long-time friend in T.L. Wise. Hoping that they get the money here. Comes off a nice 2nd against tough ones down in the Houston Ladies Classic last time out, and that is a G3 event. In lone attempt over the AW, this one has a 3rd. Trainer wins with .25% when going from dirt to the AW. Has a nice stalking style, which should fit this group just fine. If the #s 14 and/or 13 draw in, take a serious look. Both figure. If not, I got to use Dreamalildreamofu (1). This is one from the Brad Cox barn and comes off a near 10-length win over the mud at the Fair Grounds. Will be stepping up in class here, but has talent. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 7-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 4-8/2-1-6-3/7-5-9…Animal Kingdom Stakes…This Stakes event is named after the only horse to win the Jim Beam/Jeff Ruby and go on to win the Kentucky Derby. In this 6.5-furlong sprint, I will give the edge to Outadore (4). This 3YO Outwork colt returns as a beaten favorite when he was the fan’s choice in the Springboard Mile to finish up the 2020 season. Ran 5th in that one after getting pressed the entire trip. If this one can carve out a nicer and more gentle lead, this watch this one on the cutback in distance. Could be a real threat at a square price. Gagetown (8) is my horse to bet here. This one has never missed the board and nearly won the Sugar Bowl Stakes three back. Ran up against Big Lake last time out and couldn’t handle that one, but gets the cutback in distance here. The Cox barn wins with .29% when going from a route to a sprint. Work at KEE on March 20 was on the mark, and a top rider takes the reins. My pick. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the 4-8 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
9th: 6-2/1-7/3-9-8-4/(13)-5…Kentucky Cup Classic…This Stakes is named for from a concept that I developed so many years ago. It is the long last race from a day full of Stakes that we crafted after the BC model. And, some real good ones have won this one in the past. A good one could win it again today. Finnick the Fierce (6) returned from a vacation that lasted 8 months to win here impressively on March 3. Did it in absolute style. this 4YO has faced some real good ones in the past and if he doesn’t bounce off that stylish win last out, he could dominate here again with a late move. Gets one of the hottest riders in the world right now. Adds up for me. Set Piece (2) won here twice earlier in the meet, including a listed Stakes event. Went down to try the Fair Grounds Stakes, a G3 event, last time out. Ran much better than the 4th may suggest. Only beaten 2 lengths in a G3 event by Captivating Moon. Look for this one to come very late, but come with a real purpose. I bet the 6-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 6-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
10th: 10-7-9/8-3/4-1-2-6/5…Bourbonette Oaks…Candace O (10) draws an unfortunate post, but this 3YO daughter of Declaration of War certainly looks to be the best on paper. Ran 4th last time out in the G3 Sweetest Chant Stakes on the grass at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 30. Has been training very nicely in South Florida and gets a hot jock up on Saturday. Broke the maiden two back and immediately jumped into a G3. Should appreciate this distance and class level. Threat at a square price. Into Vanishing (7) is another from the Thomas-Landeros team. Won here by over 6 last time out and is a perfect 2-for-2 here this winter. Will face tougher here, but appears to have the predominant speed factor. Will be interesting to see if she can carry that speed against the likes of these. Wouldn’t be surprised if she answers that with the affirmative. Forever Boss (9) comes out of a G3 at Tampa Bay, when she never was able to stretch her legs following a rough start. In the two starts before, she showed both guts and courage. Is 12-1 in the ML? Seriously. My Upset Special of the Day II. I bet the 10-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8-3 in two smaller units. I will also key the 10-9 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
11th: 7-10-5/6-2-8/11-12/1-3-4/9…G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks…Tarantino (7) gets my top number in the 50th running of this Stakes event, which has now been elevated to a premium prep for the KY Derby. This 3YO son of Pioneerof the Nile has the pedigree to be a Derby contender. This one has the running style to be a threat in the Triple Crown, too. Was previously trained by Team Baffert. Now resides in the barn of Rodolphe Brisset. Ran 4th behind Greatest Honour in the G2 Fountain of Youth. But was 2nd to the same horse in the G3 Holy Bull. That may be good enough to dominate here. Maybe. Gretzky the Great (10) is my pick. I love this 3YO son of Nyquist, who I think is going to be a top sire for years to come. This one tired in the 11/16-mile John Battaglia Stakes here on Feb. 26. But he set all the early fractions in that one and was coming off a 3 month layup. Should be fitter here and the works are top notch. I hope that the new rider takes a bit of a hold in the early stages and saves more for the lane. A stalking position would be ideal. And, I think this one has the talent to be right there at the wire at a very nice price. I bet the 10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-10 over/under the 5-6-2-8-11-12-1 in two smaller units. I will box the 7-10 sternly in two more.
12th: 3-5-11/4-(13)-7-10-12/9-6-1…Today’s finale is a 6-furlong test for the MSW ranks. I give the edge to Dark Honey (3), who is my next “Upset Special of the Day.” This one will make the career debut for a barn that wins with .10% of those. But the works are good here and the dam of this one has 3 winners from 4 starters and 1 stakes winner. Pedigree is solid. Love the 8-1 odds and the barn can win off the bench. Village Queen (5) has more experience. Has raced 5 times and has a 2nd and two 3rds on the resume. Got the Lasix for the first time last out and the barn wins with .17% of those getting 2nd time Lasix. Top rider takes over. Threat. Texas Melody (11) ran 3rd here on debut on Feb. 25. Tired mightily at the finish of that one, but should be fitter here. Barn has won with only .04% of the last 47 runners. Hmmm. Advice? Don’t dismiss Princess Celeste (4) here. Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, and this one is training quite nicely. Just saying. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the 3-5-4 in the exacta. I key the 3-4 over/under all the other numbers in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene