(Cyberknife on a morning stroll this week / All Photos by Coady Photography)
|Day’s Results||10 / 4-2-5|
|2022 Overall — 1973||1973 / 663-718-927|
|Win % of Top Pick||33.61%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.99%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1252-1973||63.46%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 5-10||50.00%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 4-10||40.00%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 1/1-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 346-525||65.91%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 182-525||34.67%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 69/29-10-8||42.03% Win / 68.12% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 300/ 123-64-29||41.00% Win / 72.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 11/2-1-1||18.18% Win / 36.36% ITM|
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM|
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM|
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 46/10-7-5||21.74% Win / 47.83% ITM|
(Stats will be updated after Friday’s Breeders’ Cup card is completed)
Well, it is upon us — Day II.
Here’s our picks and how we will play the Saturday edition of this year’s event:
Race 3 (11:50 a.m. ET Post): Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint:
13/8-4/7-11/1/12-8…What a race to kick start this day’s version of the Breeders’ Cup. Speed will be on full display. The question is whether or not there is too much of it. But I will still stick with the initial plan and that is to ride the great Echo Zulu (13) as far and as quick as her little hooves will carry her. This classy gal — who has already won a Breeders’ Cup race as a 2YO and still carries the title of “Champion” — has raced a total of 7 times. She’s won 6 of those. The only loss came in the two-turn KY Oaks when she still ran a gutsy and determined race, only to finish fourth. Since cutting back in distance, she has found the lead and the winner’s circle to her liking once again. She is the best in here. But she will face other speedy types, too. Goodnight Olive (8) is the “now horse.” Is a perfect 3-for-3 at this distance and has 5 wins in 6 career starts, with a lone 2nd on the resume. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. Will be a handful. No doubt. Ce Ce (4) won this race a year ago But at this distance? Only 1-1 in 4 starts. Hmm. Obligatory (7) is a must-use for me, too. Has a 2-1-1 mark in 6 tries at this distance and is the quality “closer” in this group. Look out in deep stretch. Could be the one “coming” fastest.
I bet the 13-7 across the board ($20 on 13 and $10 on 7) and then box these two in the exactas. Sternly. ($15 box) I will key the 13-7 over/under the 8-4-1 in two smaller units. ($10 over and $5 under). Cost $210
Pick 5: 13-7-4-8-11 / 8-4 / 7-5-9-2 / 3-4-11-5 / 9-4 = .50-cent ticket costs $160
Pick 3: 13-7-4-8-11 / 8-4 / 7-5-9-2 = $1.00-ticket costs $40
Pick 3: 13 / 8-4-7-11-6-12-10 / 7-5-9-2 = $1.00-ticket costs $28
DD: 13-7-4-8-11-1 / 8 = $5 ticket costs $30
DD: 13 / 8-4-7-11-6-12-10 = $5 ticket costs $35
Horizontal plays cost total of $293
Total Investment on this race: $503
Race 4 (12:29 p.m. ET Post): Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint:
8/4-11-6/7-12/10/1/3-5…This 5.5-furlong specialty event is dominated — on paper — by “The Champ” Golden Pal (8). This one is a perfect 4-for-4 over this sod and is 8-1-0 at this distance. Has speed and should roll right to the front of this group with a clean break. May not stop — again. But? This one just doesn’t appear — on paper — to be as good as in the past, either. Distance in front at the wire is less. Speed times are a bit off. Could be a sign of vulnerability, but still the one to beat. Campanelle (4) comes in off a nice win at Kentucky Downs. But there are some handicappers that point out that the grads from this hilly course don’t fare well in these races. (Mr. DeRosa, from HorseRacingNation.com). I do. This one is 3-0-1 in 4 races at the distance. Has run against colts and done well before. Gets the “Flying Jockey” up and this could be a huge dismount in the winner’s circle. Casa Creed (11) was 5th in the Coolmore Mile here last time out, but drops back in distance here. Still, 0-for-3 here and 0-for-0 at this distance. Ugh. So? I drop the 11 down in the order and move up Arrest Me Red (7), another from the barn of Wesley Ward. This one was 3rd in the Turf Sprint at KY Downs and has gone 6-1-2 in the turf races. This stalker can close. Could mean a clean sweep for Ward.
I bet the 8-4 across the board ($20 on the 8 / $10 on the 4) and then box the 8-4-7 in the exactas ($10). I will key the 8-4 over/under the 11-6-7-12-10-1 in two smaller units. ($10 over / $5 under).
DD: 8-4-7 / 7-2 = $5 ticket costs $30
DD: 8 / 7-2-5-9 = $5 ticket costs $20
Total investment: $380
Race 5 (1:10 p.m. ET Post): Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile:
7-5-9/2/6-4/10-3-1…This 1-mile event over the main track is one of the best “indicators” of whom will progress and, ultimately, succeed as a Stallion Prospect in the near future. This year’s version is complicated to dissect and handicap, due to many factors. Thus? Leads to a wide open affair, IMO. I will give the edge to Cody’s Wish (7), who should be the PT favorite by the time this race comes around. With the defection of Jack Christopher, Cody’s Wish may be able to make a serious run late. A true closer with style and is 6-1-3 in 10 career starts. Gunite (5) is really good. And, he is really, really good right now. Stalker can kick home, too. But he is 0-for-1 at this distance and is really “in-between” for this race and the Sprint. Will be stretching it here. But class will help. Cyberknife (9) drops out of the hunt for this year’s Classic and cuts back in distance to the Mile. Finds a rather “soft” group with the defection of Jack Christopher. This guy shows up and has faced the best 3YOs all year. Will give all. Question is whether that is good enough at this distance. In this spot, I have elevated Simplification (2) to a higher consideration. Gets a new rider, who is on fire here and the best race of his life came at this same 1-mile distance. Don’t know why the connections have been pushing the longer races. Should relish this spot. Look out here.
I bet the 7-2 across the board ($20 on the 7 / $10 on the 2) and then box these two sternly in the exactas ($15). I will key the 7-2 over/under the 5-9-6-4 in two smaller units ($10 over / $5 under).
DD: 7-2 / 3-4-11-5-9 = $5 ticket costs $50
DD: 7 / 3-4-11-5-9 = $5 ticket costs $25
Total investment: $315
Race 6 (1:50 p.m. ET Post): Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf:
3-4-11/5-9-8-10-2/12…This race has been kind to the 3YOs in the past and this year’s version should be no different. I will line up with Nashwa (3), who is shipped to Keeneland after a very nice 2nd at Longchamp last time out for the All World Trainer John Gosden. I don’t know how he would rank in the profession, but if he is not at the top it would not take long to read his name on the list. For my money, there is none better. This colt has raced 6 times this year. Has 4 wins. This colt has been run at this distance 3 times in the career and has 2 wins and a 2nd. Has raced against older in Europe in the last two and has a win and a 2nd. Adds up for me. Above the Curve (4) is trained by Joseph O’Brien, the son of the great Aidan. Ran just behind our top pick last time out and was nipped for 2nd by a head. Carried 123 in that one. Drops to 120 here. Has 3 wins in 4 tries at this distance, too, and has run very well against older in the last two out. In Italian (11) goes for America’s top grass conditioner — Chad Brown. This gal has won two in a row — including the G1 First Lady Stakes here last time out. All speed and will go right to the front. Don’t know if she can carry that this distance, but the fact that there are other speed-oriented runners in the race (like Virginia Joy and Going to Vegas) could compromise the chances here.
I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. ($20 on the #3 and $10 on the 4. $10 box.) I will key the 3-4 over/under the 11-5-9-8-10-2 in two smaller units. ($10 on top & $5 underneath.)
DD: 3-4-11-5-9 / 9-2 = $5 ticket costs $50
Total investment: $380
Race 7 (2:30 p.m. ET Post): Breeders’ Cup Sprint:
9-2/6-5/8-4-3/11…This year’s version of the Sprint could be the one for Jackie’s Warrior (9), who failed miserably in last year’s version at odds-on favorite. After setting the early fractions in that one, he spit the bit and fell to 6th. Before that race, he had won 3 in a row. Since that race, he had won 4 in a row before finishing 2nd in the G1 Forego at 7 furlongs. This year’s Sprint is 6 furlongs — where Jackie’s Warrior owns a rather tidy 4 wins in 5 starts. The departure of Jack Christopher and the fact that Gunite was put in the Mile should aid and assist Jackie’s effort in this one. Solid pick. Maybe, this one is a single? Kimari (2) is a filly facing the boys here, but this 5YO mare has raced this distance twice in her life and won both times. Has been over this track 3 previous times and has 2 wins and a 2nd. The race at Churchill on May 7 was an absolute debacle. But after a 2-month layoff, this one has returned in absolute style with wins in two G2 Stakes. This one will stalk and pounce. And, may be coming right at the perfect time. Don’t dismiss this one.
I bet the 9-2 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. ($20 across on the 9 and $10 on the 2. I will use a $15 box.) I will key the 9-2 over/under the 6-5-8-4-3. ($10 over & $5 under.)
DD: 9-2 / 13-3-4-14-11-9 = $5 ticket costs $60
Pick 5: 9-2/13-4-3-14-11 / 1-6-4 / 7-5-11-2-3 / 4 = .50-cent ticket costs $75
Pick 5: 9-2/13-4-3/1-4/7-5-11-2-6-3 / 4-2-5 = .50-cent ticket costs $108
Total investment: $513
Race 8 (3:10 p.m. ET Post): Breeders’ Cup Mile:
13-4/3-14-11-9-7/6-10/2…The top two numbers I get here are both on Europeans. I will give a slight edge to Kinross (13), despite the far outside post position. That starting point is definitely not advantageous. And, it could be crippling. Especially when you consider that this one is 0-for-2 at this distance, too. But this one has 4 wins in a row. And? This one has gone 8-1-1 in 21 career starts. Won a Group 1 in Ascot the last time out and ran off to a 2+ length win there. Good now. Could be poised with Dettori in the irons. Modern Games (4) is truly legit. Won this race a year ago after a crazy decision at the gate cost some wagering opportunities. But will run on in the late going and has a 3-2 record in 5 starts at this distance. Is a proven commodity on this shores and should be a very tough out here.
I bet the 13-4 across the board. Each. ($20 each). I will box these two in the exactas. ($20 box). I will key the 13-4 over/under the 3-14-11-9-7-6 in two smaller units. ($10 over & $5 under).
DD: 13-4-3-14 / 1-4 = $5 ticket costs $40
DD: 13-4-3-14-11 / 1-4 = $2 ticket costs $20
Total investment: $340
Race 9 (3:55 p.m. ET Post): Breeders’ Cup Distaff:
1-6/4-7/2/8-3…This is supposed to be a showdown between the top 2 fillies and mares in the barn of HOF trainer Todd Pletcher. There is 4YO Malathaat (1) and there is the 3YO Nest (6). There is the older mare who has gone 9-3-1 in 13 career starts and won the KY Oaks. There is the younger superstar, who has gone 7-2-1 in 10 starts and ran 2nd in this year’s version of the Oaks. There is the older mare, who is undefeated over the Keeneland surface — going 3-for-3 here. There is the younger gal, who is undefeated here, as well — going 1-for-1 on this surface. The older mare won the last time out in the G1 Spinster Stakes. The younger one won the last out in the G1 Beldame. So, what to do? I go with the older and more mature version. Hands down. No disrespect to Nest. Next year, if still in training and still going well as she is now, I will go with her. But this race is dominated by the older ones and this will be Nest’s first try against the older ranks. I give the edge to age. Clairiere (4) has got a big shot here, too, IMO. This one ran poorly in the last one, but she was not herself before the race — acting fractious in the gate. It’s a complete toss for me. She has wins over Malathaat in the past and is very good, in her own right. Very good. She may be the best late in this one.
I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. ($20 across on each and $20 box.) I will key the 1-4 over/under the 7-2 in two smaller units. ($10 on top and $5 underneath)
DD: 1-4 / 7-5-11-2-6-3-13 = $5 ticket costs $70
Total investment: $290
Race 10 (4:40 p.m. ET Post): Breeders’ Cup Turf:
7-5/11-2/6-3-4/13…This is the America’s most renowned grass event and it has attracted an attractive, if not overwhelming, crowd to load the gate. I will give the edge to Nation’s Pride (7). This 3YO Irish-bred son of Teofilo comes in with a record of 6-2-0 in just 9 career starts and will be a fresh horse off the 61/4-length win in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational at Aqueduct on Sept. 17. In three starts here? Has a 2nd in the G1 Belmont Derby and then a win in the G1 Saratoga Derby over Annapolis (who is a top contender in the Mile). Has stalking speed and should be able to close this distance off, with a previous win at the length. One to beat, IMO. Rebel’s Romance (5) is a year old, and may be a bit more accomplished. Has 8 wins in 11 tries far and comes in here with a 4-race win streak. But? The last two wins were in Germany — not a bastion of Thoroughbred excellence on the track. Did win a Group 3 in Great Britain earlier this year. Gets a top rider here and is a perfect 4-for-4 at the distance.
I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. ($20 across on each and $20 box). I will key the 7-5 over/under the 11-2-6-3-4-13 in two smaller units. ($10 over and $5 under.)
DD: 7-5 / 4-2-6-5 = $5 ticket costs $40
DD: 7-5 / 4-5 – $10 ticket costs $40
Total investment: $420
Race 11 (5:40 p.m. ET Post): Breeders’ Cup Classic:
4/2-6-5/7-8/3-1…By now, you have heard enough about Flightline (4). Now, it is time to see what the hoopla is all about. Now, it is time to see him perform as well as we expect. Now, it is time to see him clear this field by the length of the stretch and revive the long-lost memories of Secretariat. As a fan of the sport and game, I am rooting for that to happen. There is nothing wrong with superstars performing like superstars. Here’s hoping that he is just that. A superstar. And, here’s hoping that the ownership connections will consider running him again in 2023. after all, he has made only 5 career starts. Truth is, though, Flightline has never faced the likes of these kind. Never. Ever. He he will have to be a star to win. Maybe not a superstar. But, at the least, a star. Life Is Good (2) is very good. Maybe even great. He has run 11 times and won 10. His distance limitations will be put to the test here, to be sure, but his speed is undeniable and he will test Flightline’s speed pedal. Epicenter (6) is, undoubtedly, the best 3YO in the world. He is getting better. And, he may be good enough to give the top two a test, too. But the real longshot possible here just may be Hot Rod Charlie (5). He has raced 18 times, so far. He has gone 5-5-4, so far. He’s gritty. He can grind. And, he may be just could enough to shock a few if the top 3 take a bit of gas out of each other.
I bet the 2-5 across the board — take note. ($20 on each.) I will box the 2-5 in the exactas. ($20 box) I will key the 2-5 over/under the 7-8-3-1. ($20 on top and $10 underneath). You will notice that I don’t bet a dollar on the 4 — Flightline. Wagering strategy is different than rooting interests. If he wins, he wins and I am happy that the sport has another “star.” If he does not, maybe I have a shot to make a few $. Win-Win?
Total investment: $400.
Good luck & All the Best /
P.S.: Let’s have some fun
Leave A Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.