|Day Results||9 / 5-5-5|
|2020 Overall 1606||1606 / 569-548-694|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.43%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.59%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,043-1,606||64.94%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 90-137||65.69%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 48-137||35.04%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 20-10-1-3||50.00% Win / 70.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 217-79-45-30||36.41% Win / 70.97% ITM|
A bit chalky at the ole ball yard on Friday. But it does not matter if you are chalking up wins and cashing tickets that return a positive to the bankroll.
May not be the sum that you wanted to tally, mind you.
But it is a sum that is better than you started with, you need to be reminded of sometimes.
All in all?
Five winners out of nine races. Seven exactas out of the nine races.
Our Key Play of the Day did tank, but we rolled on.
So, we fire back at them today. Here’s a look at our picks, as we sit on our dock of the bay:
1st: 3-1-2/5/4-6…Pick Up the Fone (3) had no chance when she threw her head at the break and didn’t make the lead in the last outing. Toss for me. Go back before then? Five races where she hit the board and 4 seconds in the mix. Likes to be in the front and hitting the fractions early and often. Returns as a beaten favorite here for a barn that wins with .28% of those. Solid work on Nov. 8 at Ellis Park (?). Misty Blue (1) gets back to the dirt today for a barn having a great meet. Barn wins with .20% that make this surface change. Rider has won with .28% of the last 50 mounts for this barn. Has a win in three tries here. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, and the barn wins with .22% of the time. Richie Great Girl (2) returns for the first time since April 20. Barn wins with .34% when coming back off that long a vacation. Works are OK for the return. Has 2 wins in 3 starts over a fast dirt track, and a win in only try here. Would not be a surprise. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the top 3 over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-2-8/6-5-7/1-4…Treaty of Paris (3) goes for a barn operation that is having a very good meet, and gets the trainer’s go-to rider, who may end the meet as the top and winningest jockey. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the trainer wins with .26% of them. Has run here twice before and run 2nd both times. Conoloway (2) ran a good one last time out when the last race was moved off the turf and to the main track. Now, will try the dirt again and gets a solid jockey change. Has faced some good ones in the past and will be running at the end. She’s a Deal (8) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time since she was 2nd here in May. Nearly won that one at 21-to-1 odds. Has hit the board in the last 3 and 3 of the last 4. In 4 starts here, has two seconds and two thirds. In 6 starts over a fast dirt track, she has 3 seconds and 3 thirds. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3 over/under the 2-8-6-5-7 in two smaller units.
3rd: 5/2-1A/3-1-4…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Chocolate Kisses (5). This 4YO daughter of Candy Ride rolls into this one off a near-miss second here on Sept. 26. Came from off the pace that day under the steady hand of rider Tyler Gaffalione. Of the last 5 races, she has hit the board 4 times. Only debacle was the G2 Fleur de Lis here in June. Overmatched that day. In 6 races here, has 3 seconds. May find the wire first today with a little luck. In 5 times at the distance, has a 1-1-1 mark. I bet the 5 to win/place and then key the 5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas.
4th: 1-4-1A/2/7-6-8/3-5…Temper Tantrum (1) is my preferred choice out of the entry, although this one will have to lose the Lasix for the first time in this one. Won the debut run over the grass at Arlington Park. Came back to run OK over the dirt at Hawthorne. Didn’t make the lead that day, though, and probably prefers the front end. With the rail and the stretch into the chute, this one will need to go early and often to avoid the rail complications. Hmmm. Hoistthemainsail (4) is coming off the MCL victory last time out and will face winners for the first time here. Barn wins with .19% of those kind, though, and this 2YO son of Mizzen Mast certainly fits in this grouping. Beat a horse last time out that came right back to win the next one. Could be the one to beat. Richiesgotgame (1A) never ran a step last time out after breaking the maiden at a mile in the first start. The “Place” horse in that first one came right back to win. I will toss the last one and use if this one is the Rivelli choice. The barn has won with .27% of 277 starters this year. Clever operation. I bet the 4 — take note — to win/place/show and then box with whatever part of the entry is left to do the running. I will key the 4-1-1A over/under the rest of the numbers listed — but more with the 2 than any others.
5th: 2/1-4-6-8/2-7-9…The second Key Play of the Day comes here with Cane Creek Road (2). This 2YO son of Bayern ran a solid race in the debut at the $150,000 MCL level. Faltered at the end of that one, as the beaten favorite. Drops into the $40,000 level today and the barn wins with .31% on this kind of a free fall and with .30% when returning as a beaten fan’s choice. This one cost $100,000 at a 2YO sale earlier this year. From a Stakes-winning mare. Looks like this one could get claimed here, too. My solid pick with a rather weak group. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.
6th: 3-1-4/8-2/6/7-5…Moliere (3) returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .26% of those kind. Ran a huge one on debut, when the “Show” horse came right back to win. Winner that day is a good one, too. Faltered in the race at KEE, but the pace may have been a bit too torrid for this one’s liking. Returns to a mile distance here and should like the ability to rate in the early going a bit more. Rider is red hot and has teamed up with the barn to go 8-3-2 in the last 29 rides. Speightstown Again (1) has hit the board in each of the last 3 outings, but never close at the wire. May improve today with a cutback in distance, though, and the rail is winning at a .18% rate. Barn wins with .15% of those making the 2nd start off a layup and is having a solid meet. Chance. Aasr (4) will be making the 2020 debut and the first start for the new barn today. Used to be trained by Chad Brown. But…this one is training lights out and the barn is red hot. Rider has won with .31% of the last 16 mounts for this trainer. Look out here at a price. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-4 over/under the 1-8-2-6 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-6/2-1-8/3-4-5/9…Kiffle (7) ran off to an easy and impressive victory here on Nov. 5 when racing at this same level. Top rider is back for more and the barn wins with .12% when it won the last race. In 9 starts at this distance lifetime, she has a 4-3-0 record. Rider is 10-5-2 in the last 22 starts and has won at a .20% clip for this barn, too. Adds up, but there is other speed in the race and that could jeopardize this one’s chances some. It’s Cold in Dehere (6) could be the beneficiary of a speed duel up front. This one was claimed last time out at Indy Grand off of trainer Tom Amoss. But the 4YO Ice Box filly has hit the board in each of the last four and has won two in a row. Good right now. All that damage has been up in Indy, but has a 2-0-2 record here, too. Can’t dismiss this one rolling late. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 7-6 over/under the 2-1-8-3-4-5 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-6-(13)/9-1-10/2-7-4-12-(15)…Wild Combo (5) returns to the fray today as a beaten favorite for the HOF trainer Steve Asmussen, who is having a very solid meet. Barn wins with .26% of those returning as a beaten fan’s choice. Had excuses in the last out. Bothered at the start and it was rather significant. Wants to be closer to the lead, too. Daughter of Into Mischief could be a top threat if she can clear early. Marion Francis (6) is a 2YO daughter of Constitution, and this one cost $150,000 at a 2YO Sale earlier this year. Will make the debut for a barn that is winning with .18% on debut and .21% in 71 starters this meet. Rider has won with .28% of the last 76 mounts for this barn, too. Works are spot on. Threat. If the #13 draws in? I use. Definitely. I bet the 5-13 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta if they all draw in. If not? I box the 5-6 and do so rather sternly. I will key the 5-6 or 13 over/under the 9-1-10-2-7 in two smaller units.
9th: 3/2-1-9-6-4/5-8…My third Key Play of the Day may be a bit of a shocker to you. But I am all in with Grand Cru Classe (3). This 3Yo daughter of Bernardini ran a huge, huge, huge one at Keeneland on Oct. 17 at odds of 20-to-1. Nearly took the whole thing down when moving up to G2 status for the fist time. Has trained well since then and gets a huge, huge, huge jockey change for this one today. This one looks to be getting better and better and I think will love the extra distance. Finite (2) is surely the one to beat, and I have supported her all year long. Still love here. But I think the top choice may be the fastest improving 3YO filly in the country right now. New Roo (1) is my Longshot Special of the Day. Can’t believe that she will go off at the 20-1 ML odds. But if she does? I’ll have some love to share here, too. This one ran very well at Ellis Park. No chance in the last out when parked wide throughout. Look for more today. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under all the other numbers. I will also box the 3-2-1 in one exacta.
10th: 8-4-11/1-7-10/2-6…This is a spread race, of sorts, for me. I am torn between the two horses from the barn of Mike Maker. So, I spread there. LOL. Blanket of Roses (8) gets the slight edge. Drops all the way to the $10,000 level today and should appreciate this class drop with abundance. Has run against much, much better and was 2nd in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park earlier this year. Could be a nice claim purchase today to use up there this winter. Rider has gone .32% winners in the last 25 mounts for the barn. Hot. New Eagle (4) is another from the Maker barn and gets Tyler Gaffalione up. He has won with .28% of the last 50 marks for this barn. Ran 2nd last time out at this level. Has worked well since the try. Does not have to come from as far back as the roommate above. First jump. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8-4 over/under the 11-1-7-10 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene