|Day Results||9 / 4-4-4|
|2020 Overall 1634||1634 / 578-559-708|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.37%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.64%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,059-1,634||64.81%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 106–165||64.24%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 57-165||34.55%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 26-13-1-4||50.00% Win / 69.23% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 223-82-45-31||36.77% Win / 70.,85% ITM|
(Jack turned 5-years-old on Wednesday. This is exactly how he lives life. Diving head first — and most of the time backwards — right into everything. Love the boy. Just love the boy.)
Nice day on Wednesday — the day before the big eat day.
We had 4 winners. We nailed our one Key Play of the Day.
We had the trifecta in the feature, after the scratch of Dennis’ Moment. Had it cold. And, it was nice. Very nice, with Mailman Money on top. We had him.
(Mailman Money winning the feature on Wednesday / Coady Photography)
We had exactas that returned the likes of $6.20, $14.70, $28.80, $32.40, $25.50, $63.30 and $14.00 for each $1 played. Hope you played.
Now, it’s Turkey Day.
We will celebrate. Hope you do, too.
Here’s our looks for the big harvest:
1st:1A-6-5/1/7-3/8-2/4…Wish You Were Mine (1A) didn’t run many steps in the last two outings, but the 4YO Skipshot filly drops to the lowest price tag ever and the blinkers come off for a HOF trainer, who now resides in Kentucky. Was claimed here back in June for $40,000 when running a very game 2nd against much better. Gets a new rider, who knows how to get around this track. Nice work at the training center here on Nov. 13. Looks like she fits in this group. Seeds of Time (6) has run over this main track four times in the career. Has 2 wins, a second and a third. In two tries over an “off track,” this one has 3 wins, a second and a third in 5 runs. Great “off” record. Has hit the board in 4 of the last 5 and gets a huge rider switch for this effort today. Chance. Shackleford County (5) has a third in two previous runs over an “off track.” But this one gets the blinkers for this time and the trainer has won with one of two to get the shades for the first time. Has hit the board in each of the last four and 6 of the last 7. Chance II. I bet the 1A-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 7-3 in two smaller units.
2nd: 5-3-7/1-6/4-2…Reason to Soar (5) has won two in a row and three of the last four and figures to add to the resume in this spot today. The 6YO Florida-bred has speed and can stalk whenever and wherever he wants, or so it seems. In 6 starts here, though, he has only 1 win, 1 second and 2 thirds. Good of late, but may bit a bit vulnerable at the low odds. Laddie Boy (3) gets a huge rider switch after being mismanaged on the track in each of the last three tries. With a cleaner trip, this 9YO veteran could be a tough out in the late going. In 17 starts here, has 3 wins, 2 seconds and a third. Good over an “off track,” as well. In 13 tries, has a 3-8-1 record over an “off” surface. Royal Commission (7) goes for a barn operator who has gone 4-4-3 in the 13 races this meet. Rider has won with .29% of the last 7 mounts for this barn, too. Comes in off a win here on Nov. 11. And, this one has hit the board in each of the last 6 races. Can’t dismiss. I bet the 3-7 — take note — across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-4/6-5-2-8/1-3…Artie’s Rose (7) is a 2YO filly trained by Mike Maker, who is having himself one super meet here this Fall. In 83 mounts, he has a record of 24-10-5 for a .29% winning rate. This rider has won with .32% of the last 53 mounts for the barn, too. Can toss the last one, when off extremely slow at the start. Takes a huge class drop here for an ownership group that likes to win lots of races. Barn wins with .22% of those going into the claiming ranks for the first time and with .18% going from two sprints into a route experience. Bold Article (4) returns at the same level that she ran in last time out. Was too far back that day to mount any kind of threat. Returns for a tp rider, who is winning at a .22% clip here this meet and the barn wins with .21% when going from two sprints into a route race. Threat. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 7-4 over/under the 6-5-2-8-1-3 in two smaller units.
4th: 2-4/7-3/1-6-5…Lone Rock (2) is the even-money ML favorite for this 1-mile event, and the 5YO gelding figures to be a shorter price than that when it comes time to pop the gate. Was claimed for the $40,000 price tag last time out, when he won over the KEE main track. In 4 previous runs here, has a 1-1-1 mark and has two wins in 4 tries over an “off track.” In the last two outings at this claiming level, this one has been right there each time. Figures to be again. Love the rider choice for the new barn operation, which normally does NOT delve into the claiming box or the ranks. Interesting selection. Intrepid Heart (4) threw in a serious clunker last time out and now returns to the same price category where he was claimed two times ago. Barn is having a sub-par meet so far. But this one does have a win here and gets back to the rider who won on him at Saratoga three races ago. Lots of back class with this dude. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 7-3-1-6-5 in two shorter units.
5th: 5-4-12/1-6-10/7-8/9-2-3…Hot as Blue Blazes (5) gets the blinkers for the first time and a drop into the MCL ranks for the first time, as well, from one of the hottest barns on the grounds. Trainer has won with .20% of his first 75 starters here this meet and the rider has picked up .26% winners in the last 80 rides for the barn. Goes from the grass to the main track today and that could help this 2YO daughter of Nyquist. Could be a bargain at this MCL level. After all, connections paid $240,000 for her just a year ago at the KEE September Yearling Sale. How Lucky (4) will make the 2nd career start for young trainer Norm Casse, who wins with .16% of those making the 2nd start. Stretches out to the route for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .16% of those. Has worked lights out since the first race and the rider is red hot. Big shot here. Right Trappe (12) got no bargains with the far outside post, but the barn is red hot and this one ran a very solid 2nd on debut at the $40,000 tag level. Moves up this time, but gets a huge rider switch and will be coming late. If the rider can sneak through along the rail? Watch out at a very nice price. Longshot Special. I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-6 in two smaller units.
6th: 7-5/3-2-9/8-4/1…Substantial (5) gets a new rider today, and the move to the hottest jockey in the world right now can’t do anything but help. Has hit the board in three of the last four outings and has two wins in that mix. In two runs here previously, does have a 2nd on the board, and that came last time out in the slop on Oct. 29. Has speed. Can burn early. Look for this duo to play a little “Catch Me If You Can” in this spot. Fra Mauro (5) has been a favorite tout of mine all summer long. Mostly been disappointed with the results. Over the last 10 outings, this one does have 6 spots on the board — but only one win. Will face similar company today, but will have to negotiate a clean trip late to catch the speed. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top two numbers in the exacta. I will key the 7-5 over/under the 3-2-9-8-4 in two smaller units.
7th: 6-2-5/9-4-7-8/1-3…Bow Bow Girl (6) will be making the career debut in this spot today and at 10-1 in the ML this one is my Longshot Special of the Day. This 2YO daughter of Oxbow has been working lights out for a top trainer of the youngsters and this one looks poised to break and go early in this one. Gets a rider who can move them into contention and finish the job at the wire, too. Calumet Farm homebred may be a nice surprise here. Anoush (2) may be the horse to beat. Ran a solid 4th on debut here on Oct. 31. Trainer wins with .12% when the horse makes the second career start. Daughter of Candy Ride should like any surface and the experience of the first outing, when she broke nearly last of the 11. Made up a ton of ground, and should be better here. Hindsight (5) ran well on debut for a barn that normally does not win on the first try. Came with a nice run at KEE on Oct. 23. Has returned to work well. Connections purchased this one for $150,000, which was about the stud fee. Out of a Stakes-winning mare, too. I like underneath. I bet the 6-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-2 over/under the 5-9-4-7-8-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 10-4-6/5-9-1/8/7-3/2…Lake Avenue (10) returns for the first time since running 7th in the G3 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park on May 1. This year, has only 1 third in three starts. But? This one was amazing as a 2YO and won the G2 Demoiselle Stakes at Aqueduct last December. Has been working very well for the return. May need a race against a very salty group. But if she is ready? She is likely the best. I go here. Secondary Market (4) will face olders for the first time today. This one ran better-than-looks 6th and 4th in the G2 events coming in. But she drops back into the allowance ranks here for one of the top barn operations in the sport. Interesting rider choice. Very interesting. Hmmm. Union Maiden (6) won the last time out at KEE for the same trainer as the #4. Gets the barn’s go-to rider here for this one. Interesting. Very interesting. Hmmm. I bet the 10-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10-6 over/under the 4-5-9-1-8 in two smaller units.
9th: 6-7-11/3-12-(13)/1-10/4-9/5…This is a wide, wide, wide open affair with plenty of options and main contenders. I will saddle up with Rubus (6) in this spot, due in main part to the 2-3-1 mark in 11 tries here. Ran a good one last time out to be third, but two races ago when at Churchill Downs? Won. By 2. “Off Track” form is a little suspect, but I will stick here. Sombeyay (7) will convert back to the main track. Gets the saddle from a new trainer today for the first time. New barn operator wins with .15% with the newbies. Has worked very nicely for this one. last time on the dirt was June of 2019. Ran 2nd at Monmouth Park. Can do it. Will he? Gets the right rider to give it a shot. Tough Love (11) will have to step up his game in this spot, but the 4YO son of Bernardini is really good right now. Over the last 6 starts, he has a couple of wins; a couple of 2nds and a couple of 3rds. Chance. I bet the 6-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-12 in two smaller units.
10th:3-2-1/4-5/6-8/7-9…G2 Falls City Handicap…Bonnie South (3) didn’t get a chance to strut her stuff in the G1 Kentucky Oaks this year, and her teammate Shedaresthedevil got the opportunity to wear the laurels. Now, the 3YO daughter of Munnings is back to try her skill in the G2 Falls City. Comes in with back-to-back 2nds in the G1 Alabama Stakes against Swiss Skydiver and in the G2 Black-Eyed Susan. Has worked super for this one, but must move up to face olders for the first time in her career. Has the tools to be a top-rate runner next year, too. Will be coming late. Does have a win over an “off track,” and has the touch from one of the best young trainers of fillies in the game today. My pick and my first Key Play of the Day. Another Broad (2) could spice up the odds rack here. This 5YO Include mare will start for the first time under the steady hand of HOF trainer Steve Asmussen. The barn wins withy .16% when saddling a horse for the first time. This one has faced the likes of Midnight Bisou, Dunbar Road and Elate in the past. Would be a shocker if she won, but not if she hit the board. Envoutante (1) is a roommate of Swiss Skydiver and has some credentials of her own. Won the G3 Remington Park Oaks an has a win in only previous run here. Lost the G1 Ashland this past summer to Speech. Has talent and credibility. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 2-4-5-6-8 in two smaller units.
11th: 10-12-1A-1/7-(14)-8-9/(13)-2-3/6-5-4…Girolamo’s Attack (10) didn’t get the best of luck in the post position draw, but this 3YO gelding could be the toughest out at the wire. Has the speed to be close early on. Returns as a beaten favorite for a barn that wins with .34% of those kind — and that is with a sample size of 172 runners. Gets the meet’s hottest rider up, too. My solid choice. And? My Key Play of the Day. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then box the 10-12-1A-1 in the exacta. I will key the 10 over/under the 12-1A-1-7-14-8-9 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene