||12 / 5-5-4
|2022 Overall — 2175
||2175 / 736-788-1013
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1390-2175
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 103-154
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 58-154
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 17/6-5-3
||35.29% Win / 82.35% ITM
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 378-569
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 199-569
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 76/36-10-8
||47.37% Win / 71.05% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 324/ 135-69-32
||41.67% Win / 72.84% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0
||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2
||16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6
||21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM
Stats Now Completely Updated
Here’s our looks on the final day of live racing at Churchill Downs in 2022. Where has the time gone? Seriously. It has gone faster than a 5.5-furlong sprint with Flightline loose on the lead.
We hope you have enjoyed all our picks across Kentucky and Indiana. We will shift to Turfway Park as soon the meet shifts to the Northern Kentucky venue and the brand, spanking new facility that is now owned and operated by Churchill Downs, as well.
Let’s hit a few nice tickets and take down that Pick 6 and Pick 5.
1st: 4-5/6-7/8/1-3/2…Afleet Arlene (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on the final day of live racing at the big oval in Louis-Town this year. This 3YO filly will be offered up for $30,000 in this affair, and she broke the maiden here when racing for $20,000 in mid-September by nearly 10 lengths. But kicking incident. Gets a new rider here and one who has struggled for much of this meet, with only 2 wins in 40 starts. Ugh. Shell Shock (5) was claimed last time out by a HOF trainer for his own racing stable. Nearly won that event in the slop here on Nov. 11. Movs up to face tougher here, but could be a tough out, racing on or near the lead. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 6-7-8 in two smaller units.
2nd: 7-6/2-3/1/4/5…Charge Account (7) goes for a new barn to invade Kentucky late this year. This one was claimed at Saratoga in the last start in early September. Off since. Barn wins with a whopping .30% of the last 60 to be away this long. Has been training well and picks up a new rider. Look for this one to be a tough out if she can convert from the sod to the main track satisfactorily. Has a 5-2-2 mark in 19 fast dirt starts in the career. Brittle and Yoo (6) was claimed last time out by a top claiming operation, which has just took up shop in Kentucky after tearing up California for years. Trainer has gone 1-1-0 in the first four starts here. Barn does win with .30% on the first try off the purchase and that is with the last 369 to fit that category. Will be coming late and gets a top rider who can do just that. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 7-6 over/uneer the 2-3-1-4 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-2/5/3-6/8-9/1//4…Real News (7) is another making the first start after a claim for the HOF operation of trainer Steve Asmussen. This one ran poorly in that affair, losing by 23 lengths as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .19% on first tries, and with .14% when dropping off the claim. If you toss the last one? If you can toss the last one? This one figures to be the one to beat. California Street (2) was claimed last time out and drops a rung in the ladder, too. This barn wins with .10% when dropping off the purchase price. Ran in a Stakes just two starts ago. If primed and ready? Will be a tough out. Runs late. Gets a top rider up. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 7-2 over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
4th: 9-7/8/4/5-10/1-11/2-6…Yono (9) was claimed last time out for $30,000 and now will be offered up for $10,000. Such is the world we race in here these days, with the purses out-weigh the claiming price by so much. This one ran very well two starts back against tougher. Should fit with these types. Hey Boss (7) won at this price level two starts ago to break the MCL. That came here and with the same rider up. Chance. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the 9-7-8 in the exactas. I will key the 9-7-8 over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
5th: 4-5/8-7-6-1/2/10…Mr. Bouma (4) goes for an ice-cold barn operation, which has struggled to find the end zone this year. Trainer has won with only .08% of the 265 starts this year. But this one gets a huge class relief in the return to racing from a 6-month layoff. Barn can win off the bench and this one looks to be doing good in the a.m. Worth this amount if you have it laying around. Golden Luna (5) was claimed off an impressive win last time out. If this one runs the same race on the move up to face winners? Well…could be a double winner very soon. I bet the 5 — take note — across the board and then box the 4-5 in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 8-7-6-1-2 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-9-10/(15)-(16)/2-3-7-11/5-12/6-1…Inspeightoftrainer (4) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the trainer wins with .13% of the last 23 to do that. This one has some talent and nearly won here in mid-September. New rider has had a very solid meet and this one could be coming late in a real way. No Easy Days (9) will race for the first time as a gelding and the race in August at Ellis Park was good enough to win here. Drops into the MCL ranks for the 2nd time, but with a huge class drop. O’Conner Sunset (10) could be an upset contender here. This son of Curlin was claimed for $30,000 last time out and could be a wise purchase. Trainer wins with .20% on the first start after the purchase. I like this one. A lot. I bet the 4-10 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-10 over/under the 9-15-16-2-3-7-11 in two smaller units.
7th: 4-8-3/1-2/5/6-7/9…Peacock Lass (4) drops back after a Stakes try here last time out. That was in the slop and this one tired mightily in that affair. Shorter distance here and a dry track could both assist this one here. Look for this one to use her speed early and often. Look out. Could be gone. Black Forest (8) broke the MSW last time out with an impressive flash of speed from get to go. Barn wins with only .08% of those moving up to face winners for the first time. Gets a top rider for the bill, though. Bluelightspecial (3) has had a really good year up at Horseshoe Indianapolis and ran very well in the slop here on Oct. 30. Look at the winner of that race in the Stakes on Saturday. If she wins or runs well there? Well, this one figures prominently here. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the 4-3 over/under the 8-1-2-5 in two smaller units.
8th: 2-8-1/5-10/4-3/6-9…Two Birds (2) gets the nod here. Ran well last time out to be 2nd after setting the early fractions. May improve here with a shorter distance. Blinkers come off and that could assist this one and help him settle in the early going. Extravagate (8) gets the blinkers for the first time and this barn wins with .11% of the last 63 to get the shades. Broke the MCL by 14 lengths just two starts ago. Talent here. Midnight Raid (1) won a MSW race last time out and this barn wins with a nice .19% when moving up to face winners for the first time. Rail has been solid. Will come late with a talented rider, when focused. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-10 in two smaller units.
9th: 6-8/(13)-1-9/4/3-7/5-12/2-10-11…Olga Isabel (6) gets the nod here. This 3YO Tiznow filly has run 3 good ones in a row and has a ton of speed to burn early and often. Gets a top speed rider in the saddle for the first time and this once could be a tough out here. Has 2 runner-ups in 3 starts at this distance, and must be able to preserve some energy for the distance. Scarlet Stripe (8) is another who possesses a ton of speed and will likely challenge the top number on the front. Could set it up for a closer. Take note. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 2 in the exactas. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 13-1-9-4 in two smaller units.
10th: 4-6/5-11-3-1/(13)/8-12/2-7-10…Uber Kirk (4) has run over this track 13 times. Has a handy 4-2-2 mark here. That helps. I toss the last race at KEE, when caught in-between horses. Look at the race here two back. A force. If rider can keep this one clear? Could be a tough out late. Strava (6) is an “Upset Special of the Day.” This guy won here on June 4 by 6 lengths. Ran against some good ones of late and now falls back against types he should prefer. Has a win and a 3rd here in two previous runs, and both of those came at today’s distance. A shot at a price. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 5-11-3-1 in two smaller units.
11th: 4-6-9/3-10-11/2-7-8/5/1…G3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes…This is the closing day Stakes event and will be contested at the 11/16-mile distance over the sod. I go with Play Action Pass (4), who comes in off a better-than-looks 5th in the G3 Bryan Station Stakes at KEE. That was at the 1-mile distance. This one should prefer the extra ground here. Love the rider switch back to the guy who rode this one to victory at Ellis Park in July. Ready to Purrform (6) has faced some real good ones in the last 3 outs. Won the G2 Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga. That’s pretty good stuff. If he can find that form again? Look out. Portfolio Company (9) is one of two in here for trainer Chad Brown. Hard to leave out this trainer, who has come to dominate these types of races in the U.S. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-10-11 in two smaller units.
12th: 3-8-11/4/(13)-9/6/1-2-(14)/7-10…Mount Craig (3) didn’t fire a lick last time out. But this one was rank before the race and was washed out during it, too. May have been a bad day. If this son of Arrogate can return to the form he flashed in the debut? A shot here. The 2nd start off the layoff and the barn wins with .22% of the last 264 to do that. Arrogates Spirit (8) is another son of Arrogate in this one. Has run OK in the first two, but just OK. Must improve. Patou Road (11) picks up Lasix for the first time and this barn wins with .10% of those kind. Has not fired a lick yet for a barn that is having a super meet. Off since ’21. Barn wins with .13% off this type of a layoff. Big time longshot. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene