|Total Day Results||10 / 2-3-5|
|2021 Overall 1,417||1417 / 538-499-683|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.97%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.46%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 960-1,417||67.75%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 13-18||72.22%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 6-18||33.33%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 1/1-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 210/ 94-48-21||44.78% Win / 77.62% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ CD 4/0-1-1||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (9-8-21) 11/3-0-0||27.27% Win / 27.27% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Ky Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM|
Here’s our looks at the amazing Saturday night “Downs After Dark” card — which will include the inaugural running of the $275,000 Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes:
We only had two winners on the 10-race Friday card, but we sure did finish the day with a nice rally. And, score.
After our lone “Key Play of the Day” was scratched out of the finale, that left us with our lone “A” selection — who just so happened to romp home by many, many, many lengths on top at odds of 9-1.
Had a nice W-P-S wager.
Had a nice Exacta wager.
Had a nice “Get Out of Jail Free” card.
Our top picks did hit the board in 8 of the 10 races, and we are feeling good about our mojo and feel very locked in right now, as well. More good things to come throughout this abbreviated September meet.
Looking forward to Saturday.
1st: 2-3/5-6/1-4/7…First Post at 6 p.m. EST to kick start the “Downs After Dark” program…The ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval is a 6-furlong sprint over the current all-dirt track (the new state-of-the-art turf course is being installed and will be ready for Spring 2022). I go with Her Giant (2).This 5YO mare ran a real good one last time out at Ellis Park. Just missed making the wire first. Should fit this group here and gets a return engagement with a top rider in these parts. Works are good enough of late. Concern? Only 1-of-10 here at Churchill Downs. Until Now (3), who has been off since late July when running 5th in Cincy. Those two across the river were anything but impressive. But? Look at the last race here? Came on June 17 at this same price category. Ran off by 5 that day. Could return to that form. Maybe? I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units. (Editor’s Note: May be good to arrive late and miss this one.)
2nd: 3-5/2-6-8-9-4/1-7…Exemplar (3) has hit the board in each of the last three outings and took home the win last time out when racing in Cincy. The encouraging thing here is that this 9YO veteran has a 4-0-4 mark in 11 races here and looks in good form, too. Trainer normally does well at this meet. Taos (5) goes for a trainer who has been hot of late, both here and at KY Downs. Didn’t fire much when racing at Saratoga last time out for another trainer. Spit the bit early in that one. But drops from the $40,000 level all the way to $10,000 here. Son of Tapit cost just $53,000 last year at Fasig-Tipton’s Horses of Racing Age Sale. Has made only one start since. This barn wins with .26% when dropping this much at one time and gets the blinkers on here. Barn wins with .13% of those, too. Looking for a price horse? Pickford (4) may be your choice. Won two in a row here earlier this year. In 7 career starts here? Four wins and 2 seconds. Throw in the mix. I do. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the 3-4-5 in the exactas. I will key the 3-4 over/under the 5-2-6-8-9 in two smaller units.
3rd: 5-2/1/3/4…Open Mind Stakes…Wow. Let’s get this party started, right? This 6-furlong sprint is one of the best races in the world this weekend and will showcase some fillies that very well could end up in Southern California the first weekend in November for the Breeders’ Cup. Bell’s the One (5) has never, ever, ever been beaten at this sprint distance. A perfect 5-for-5 and has 3 wins and 2 seconds in 6 starts over this track. Has won Stakes on dirt, turf and AW. And? Has won over $1.1 million in purses — so far. Comes in off two wins in a row — including the G2 Honorable Miss against Lake Avenue at Saratoga in late July. Top notch. But as good as she is? Won’t be easy pickings, either. Sconsin (2) is the real deal. Ran a much better-than-looks 4th last time out in the G1 Ballerina Handicap at Saratoga. Ran up against Gamine (yep, that one) in there and there was no other speed to run into. Race before? Came running to just lost to the top pick in the Roxelana Stakes here in June. In 6 starts here, this one has 3 wins and 2 seconds, as well. And, this one has a win and a second at the distance. Should be another showdown and this one is working well. I bet? The 2 in an upset — take note — and box the 5-2 in the exactas. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
4th: 9-5-4/8-10/3-7-2/1-6…What a nice MSW event has been assembled here by CD Racing Secretary Ben Huffman. This one will be for the 2YOs and contested at the 7-furlong distance. I go with Camp David (9), who is a son of Pioneerof the Nile and cost $370,000 at the 2020 version of the KEE September Yearling Sales. Came with a nice run at the end of the debut up at Indy Grand. This trainer and jockey teamed up to win the finale on Friday. May do it again here. General Strike (5) was bet down to PT favoritism in the debut at Saratoga on Aug. 14. Bumped at the break of that one and wide throughout. No chance. Has returned to work very well and should be given another shot here. Barn wins with .25% when returning as a beaten favorite. Hmmm. Search Engine (4) is a first time starter for the barn of Tom Amoss, who wins with .23% of those that make the debut in the MSW ranks. Dam has 2 winners from the first 2 starters and a Stakes winner on the ground. Training very well. Look out for the speed here. And, speed is carrying well over this ground so far. I bet the 9-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8-10 in two smaller units.
5th: 9-8-1/5-7-2/3-4-10…Another 7-furlong MSW event for the 2YOs, and I will journey out to marry up with the #9 once more, and another from the barn of Rodolphe Brisset — Great Escape (9). This one has run before and nearly pulled the win at Ellis Park on Aug. 21. Came back to work a bullet at KEE on Sept. 8. Barn wins with .22% on the 2nd start and the new rider combo seems to be working so far. Look out here. According to the chart? This one was “flaying late” in the debut race. Yono (8) is a son of Quality Road, who ran a solid 3rd on debut at Ellis Park to begin the career. Was moved up to 2nd that day after being hampered and hindered at the 1/16th pole. Well bet in that first race, too, and the barn wins with .12% on the second effort. Chance here. Surfer Dude (1) just got tired and lost the lead late in the career debut over in Virginia. Ships home and the barn wins with .13% on the 2nd try. Works good since the outing. Gets a solid rider. Tough group, but I give the edge to the experience here. If looking for a first timer? Look at Brad Cox’s Uncle Mo colt — Bloodline (7) — who cost $600,000 to purchase last year. Dam of that one has 4 winners from 5 starters and a Stakes winner; or Epicenter (2) — who is by a sire that wins with .21% on first tries. This owner has been on fire. Lots of choices. One winner. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units. More with the 8-1-5-7-2 than the rest.
6th: 1-2-11/(14)-4-5-9-10/8/12-(13)-6/3-7…Lucky Us (1) has hit the board in each of the last two and returns to the same level. Has raced only once since February. Off again for a bit. Has speed and that has been healthy ingredient the first two days of the meet. Come catch me if you can. Its Bitsy Betty (2) is another who has shown that she wants the lead. This 4YO daughter of Into Mischief has raced only once and tired mightily in that one up at Indy Grand. Barn does win with .18% on the 2nd try. Sue Sorella (11) made a late bid to get up for a non-threatening 3rd on debut at Ellis Park on Aug. 13. Barn wins with .15% on the 2nd ask. Gets a rider who is doing well this summer. Maybe. Wide open affair here. Dart time. Close eyes. Aim. Toss. If you hit the board, you are doing well. But…I go with the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 14-4-5 in two smaller. Limit exposure here.
7th: 5-3/6-1-4/2…The Inaugural Running of the $275,000 Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes…Wow. We are here. Amazing. Really amazing. Thanks be to Churchill Downs for believing and supporting us and we hope that we can continue this relationship long, long, long into the great future of Thoroughbred racing. This is a 6-furlong sprint and is sure to catapult some dreams and aspirations for this November’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint. I go with Bango (5), who will be going for his 7th victory at Churchill Downs. In the first 9 starts over this surface, he has 6 wins; a second and a third. Has won three Stakes in a row — including two here. And, in 7 career starts at this distance? Five wins. He loves this distance best, IMO. Will take a Herculean effort to nip him. My first “Key Play of the Day.” But there are some in this vey talented field that could muster that kind of trip, too. Best chance? Maybe it’s Just Might (3), who just might. Goes for one of the best people to ever train a horse and this one defeated Bango at the Fair Grounds back in February. True speedster is coming into this one with three Stakes wins in a row, too, and has a win and a second in two previous tries at this distance. Regular rider is out of town. Not good. May make the difference. I bet the 5 to win/place and then box the 5-3 in the exactas. I will key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed. Stronger on the “over.”
8th: 4-2-7/6-11-10/9-1/5-8…G3 Pocahontas Stakes…This is the kickstart to the “Road to the KY Oaks,” and will include a quality field of top 2YO fillies testing the 11/16-miles for the first time. I go with Ontheonesandtwos (4), who come in off a disappointing 6thh in the G2 Adirondack Stakes at Saratoga last time out. But? Bobbled at the start of that one and lost all chance. All. Chance. Young trainer is having a very good year and the rider change here is a solid one. Sharp work on Sept. 11 and may improve with this distance choice. Look out here. Has run very, very well over this track in two previous tries. Barn wins with .29% when going from two sprints into a route. Goddess of Fire (2) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 2YO daughter of Mineshaft won the debut at Saratoga despite being 3-wide into and out of the final turn. No easy trip that day. Still, caught the leaders at the wire and ships in for a HOF barn. Trainer wins with .26% when routing for the first time and a sharp work on 9-11, too. Kneesships (7) is my second “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one moves to the dirt for the first time after two very nice runs over the sod. Despite all kinds of obstacles in the Bolton Landing Stakes at Saratoga last time, still came late with a 3rd. If she adapts to the main track? Look out for a top barn operation. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-11-10 in two smaller units.
9th: 6-9/3-11-8/2-5/4-7/10-1…G3 Iroquois Stakes…This one kick starts the “Road to the KY Derby,” and will offer up points for the top connections that hit the board at the line. Off and running to 2022. Here we go. I line up with Stellar Tap (6), a classy son of Tapit and trained by the HOF operation of Steve Asmussen. This ownership group has set the world on fire this year with their 2YOs and this one was ultra impressive in breaking the maiden at a testy 7 furlongs at Saratoga on Aug. 7. Ran off by nearly 6 that day. Look out. Could this be Tapit’s first KY Derby winner? We shall see in time. Guntown (9) is another from Team Asmussen and the Winchell Thoroughbreds bred and own this one outright. Bumped very hard and still ran a game 3rd in the debut at Ellis. Came right back to win by nearly 5 the next time out. That was at the 1-mile distance, too. Gets a hot rider here. Don’t leave out. I’m not. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 6-9 over/under the 3-11-8-2-5 in two smaller units.
10th: 7/5/6-4-1/3/2…G3 Locust Grove Stakes…The second “Key Play of the Day/Night” will come here with former KY Oaks winner and classy Shedaresthedevil (7). This 4YO gal has won over $2.047 million in her brilliant career and came off her training at Ellis Park to just dominate the G1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar for one of the top training operations in the entire world of horse racing. Works are spectacular since returning from the Left Coast. Gets the barn’s go-to rider back up. Barn wins with .28% when it has won the last race. And? And? This one has never been beaten in four tries over this track. Wow. Just wow. Wonderful filly. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the 5-6-4-1-3 in two solid units. More with the 5 than the rest.
11th: 1-5-6/9-2-10/4-7/3/8…The finale is expected to go to the post at 11:10 p.m. EST. Wow. I hope I am still up. But after that 10th race, I may not go to sleep all night. Who knows. What a great card. I will go with Arabian Prince (1) in the last. This 3YO comes in off a solid 3rd last time out and the barn wins with .13% when stretching out from a sprint to a route. Gets a top, top rider up. In 3 starts here? Has a win and a third. Looks the part. Jennings (5) jut broke the maiden last time out, but that was over the sod at Ellis Park. Impressive run against a very good field. Runner-up ran very well at KY Downs, too. Barn wins with .18% when facing winners for the first time, too. Ran well here in June. Threat. Flint Ridge (6) moves up to face winners for the first time, too, after winning easily at Saratoga last time out. This barn wins with .16% on the class elevation. Has speed. That is essential here right now, too. Chance. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9-2-10 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene