|Total Day Results||8 / 4-2-3|
|2022 Overall — 1075||1075 / 376-396-501|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.98%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.47%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 694-1075||64.56%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 237–354||66.95%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 124-353||35.13%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 73/30-18-7||41.10% Win / 75.34% ITM|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 148-226||65.49%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 89-226||39.38%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 40/15-5-4||37.50% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 212/ 86-45-19||40.57% Win / 70.75% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 10/1-1-1||10.00% Win / 30.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 28/5-2-3||17.86% Win / 35.71% ITM|
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 3/2-0-0||66.67% Win / 66.67% ITM|
Stats Now Updated
Here’s our looks for Friday at the “big oval,” as we move into the 4th of July Holiday weekend and the newest month of 2022:
1st: 5-3-2/1/7/4-6…McMansion (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval” in Louisville on this kick-start day to the 4th of July Holiday weekend. This 4YO Palace filly drops to less than half the asking price last time out and was very competitive at the $50,000 level just two starts ago. Should fit nicely here. Out Dancing (3) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and this barn wins with .22% of the last 288 to do that. Gets a reunion, of sorts, with the jockey returning to his old stomping grounds with this barn operation. Threat. Shaolin (2) also gets class relief after two sub-par performances. Should wake up a bit here and may improve with the longer distance. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
2nd: 2-8/1-4/3-5-7/6…Bootsie’s Galaxy (2) nearly won at this same asking price last time out, but that was on May 1 at Oaklawn Park. Been off since, and this barn wins with .13% off the layup. Gets a rider who is familiar. Samurai Prince (8) is an expert on the AW, but now must try to convert to the fast dirt. Has 3 thirds in 5 tries on it. Underneath? I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-8 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 8-1-4-3-5-7 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-6-5/2/1/4-8-3…Tricked Out (7) gets Lasix for the first time and will run in 2022 for the first time, as well. Barn can win off the bench and this one has been training quite nicely for the return to action. Will be coming in the stretch. Parish Belle (6) gets the blinkers on and the barn wins with .12% of the last 129 to add the shades. Sharp work on June 26. Claimed last time out for $50,000 and this barn wins with .16% on the first effort after the purchase. Chance. Fabulous Fanny (5) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and picks up the meet’s top rider for the first time, as well. Could be a dangerous combo. I bet the 6-5 — take note — across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-1 in two smaller units.
4th: 5-2-11/1/9/8/3-7-10…Sparkling Rose (5) gets the nod in the 2YO filly race, and this one will make the first start for a red-hot barn that has won with .26% of the first 53 runners this meet. Gets the meet’s top rider up, too, and he has won with an amazing .45% of the 22 mounts for this trainer. Enough written to convince me. I bet the 5 in our first “Key Play of the Day.” I will key the 5 across the board and then box the 5-2-11 in the exactas. I will key the 5 over/under the 2-11-1-9-8 in two smaller units.
5th: 3-6/5-2/7/1/4-8…Cryo (3) gets the edge in here. The trainer is 0-for-12 and trying to get off “the duck.” But this one drops significantly in class here and the barn does win with .23% in the claiming ranks. Has a win in 3 previous tries here, too. Silk Trade (6) was claimed last time out and wheels right back at the same asking price. Forget the last out and go look at the rest of the resume. Returns as a beaten favorite with the meet’s top rider sticking to the assignment. Threat. I bet the 6 — take note — across the board and then box the 3-6 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under the 3-5-2-7-1 in two smaller units.
6th: 5-6-3/9/8-11-12/7-(13)-(14)-1-2-10…Jonas’ Dream (5) gets the blinkers off for this try and the ban wins with a nice .21% of the last 68 to lose the shades. Meet’s top rider hooks back up with a top barn operation and they have done wonders together. Enough for me. Again. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-6-3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9 in two smaller units.
7th: 3-11-9/2-10/1-5-7-8/6…This is the other 2YO race on the card and I will give the edge to Holiday Decision (3). Name rings a bell and the bell for this weekend’s activities . This 2YO filly ran well before tiring in the career debut. A little better conditioning here and this one could be spot on. Divine Grace (11) ran well enough to garner some attention here. Personal Pursuit (9) goes for a trainer who is 1-for-33 this meet. Wow. Chilly is not the word, especially with the pedigrees this guy gets. Daughter of Tapit cost $500,000 to purchase at the 2021 KEE September Yearling Sale. Use at your own risk. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 11-9-2-10-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 1-7-5/4/2-6/3-8…Hot and Sultry (1) has been off since January and that may be the only reason not to name this one a “Key Play.” Has trained well for the return and gets the meet’s top rider. Barn could use a win or two. May start right here. Golden Sights (7) goes for one of the hottest barns on the backside, which has won with .31% of the 70 starters so far. Comes off a Stakes effort, but that was last December. Has been getting ready at Ellis Park — which is where the action turns next week. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
9th: 8-9/5-2/6-10-3/1-4/11…Olga Isabel (8) beat a highly, highly respected daughter of Union Rags in the career debut and did so impressively on KY Oaks Day. This one catches another top filly from the Todd Pletcher barn here in Colorful Mischief (9) and that one may be just as good. But I give the edge to Olga. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-9 in the exactas. Sternly. I will key those two over/under the 5-2-6-10-3 in two smaller units.
10th: 1-2-9/10-11/5-7-8/3/6…Scarlet Fusion (1) ran very well to be 2nd in the first try off a layoff last time out. If this son of Curlin does not bounce off that effort, he should be a handful here. Has 2 seconds and a third in 5 previous tires here. Ethical Judgement (2) has not run since last August in an effort over the grass. Has trained well for the return. Barn wins with .20% of the last 198 to come off this kind of layup. Has a win in only previous try here. Ran in the G3 Ohio Derby last year. Chance. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10-11 in two smaller units.
11th: 7-5-1/8/4-6/9-2…Tepeu (7) gets the nod in the finale. This 3YO son of Tapit nearly won the last 3 — all on grass. Can he convert to the fast dirt. We shall see. If he can? Look out. Afjan (5) was a threat for the Todd Pletcher barn before being shifted over to Mike Maker. Let’s see what this guy can do with the 2nd start — after a bad misfire here in the last out. Barn does win with .22% of the last 400 that return as a beaten favorite. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8 in two smaller units, as well.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene