(We may be praying along with Haggard)
|Days Results||14 / 3-4-6|
|2023 Overall — 676||676 / 233-222-297|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.47%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.08%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 415-676||61.39%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 20-30||66.67%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 12-30||40.00%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 37-57||64.91%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 20-57||35.09%|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 7/4-2-1||57.14% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4||46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1||20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 1/0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 91/42-18-9||46.15% Win / 75.82% ITM|
(Stats to be updated after Churchill Downs’ card on Thursday night)
Here’s our looks at the Friday festivities at the big oval:
1st: 1-4/6/2/7-3/5…The ole’ lid-lifter on this Friday festival is a 5-furlong sprint contest for the 2YO fillies and, although I hate to do it, I will go with the rail bird — Stuck on You (1). This one is sure to be a heavy favorite and the rail is not good for a “baby” making the first race ever. But this one is trained by the “guru” of 2YO racing and is overdue to win here after a terrific KEE meet. This one training quite nicely, too. Big threat if she pops the gate first. Liam’s Message (4) has the benefit of a race and despite being pinched at the start of the inaugural event, she ran OK. Picks up a huge rider switch here and should be the one to beat, IMO. I bet the 4 — take note — across the board and then box the 1-4 in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over (only) the 6-2-7-3 in a smaller unit.
2nd: 4-6/2-1-5/3…Madison Luvs Duke (4) is something you might have seen carved into a tree or painted on a water tower a few years back. Now, it shows up on a horse and this 4YO gelding comes in for a top owner/trainer duo. Ran well when moved up to face tougher last time out. Just tired. Moves to a new barn for this one and the train wins with .19% of the last 42 newcomers. This man knows how to train. No question. My pick. Just Call Ray (6) has run here 4 previous times and has a win and a 3rd on the resume, so far. Picks up a very positive jockey change and may be the speed here, too. Will be interesting to see what strategy they employ here. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 4-6 in the exactas. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 2-1-5 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-5/4/2//1…Loved (3) moves up to face tougher after breaking the MSW last time out at KEE on April 21. That’s a tough adjustment, but this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro won by over 11 lengths that day and looked like the Stakes-caliber gal that she was bred to be. Gets the same top rider back in the saddle and this one may turn out to be special. Very special. Let’s Duet (5) has 4 wins and 3 seconds to her credit and wins the “experience game,” here. She will be coming late in the proceedings and will be a tough out. The top pick will have to run well with the move to this class level. I bet the 3 to win/place and the 5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. Sternly.
4th: 3-1/6-2/5//4…Nifty (3) has won three in a row and has the speed to be dangerous in any event. In 8 starts here, too, this one has 3 wins. Trainer is one of the best kept secrets in the game today. Man wins a lot of races and his horses always look the part. Rider has won with .14% of the last 28 for this barn. Look out here. Flint Ridge (1) faded last time out when moved up to face tougher that turned out to be too tough. Drops back in class here and this one won 3 in a row before last year’s big bite of the apple. Don’t dismiss here. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over (only) the 6-2-5 in a smaller unit.
5th: 2-8-9/6-3/7/1-4-5…Shackled by Lust (2) is still looking for that first win and the drop in class here should help this 3YO daughter of Good Samaritan. Ran much better last time out when dropped into the MCL ranks. Gets a huge rider switch here. Look out. Brisbane Road (8) could be the “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 8-1 in the ML and could surprise for a top barn operation. Like the Lasix being added to a filly that may have bled in the first start last July. Working well for the return. Barn wins with .20% of the last 118 to return from this type of a layoff. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 9-6-3-7 in two smaller units.
6th: 5-2-10/8/3-9/7/4/6…Motown Missile (5) has been off since March, but is training right up to the return. Barn wins with .18% of the last 1,331 to be away this long. Gets a top rider to take the reins here. Drops to the lowest level since he ran well at this level at the Fair Grounds earlier this year. My pick. Solid. Wicca Wisdom (2) picks up a solid rider switch with the move here from NY. Don’t know anything about this barn operation, but it has won with .14% of 22 starts this year. Chance. Tuskegee Cat (10) has hit the board in each of the last 5 outings and has been 2nd in the last 3. Have to consider, right? I bet the 5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-2-4/1/5-3//6…Fire On Time (7) goes for the Albaugh Family Stables and trainer Dale Romans, who won one on Thursday night together. This 5YO mare by Not This Time has run here 4 times previously. Has 3 wins and a third. Loves this soil. Gets a veteran rider in the saddle, and he can race ride on the front end. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
8th: 3/(16)-(15)/1-(11)/4-10-6/7-(17)/8-12/5-9…If this one comes off the turf, and it’s storming to beat the band members in West Kentucky right now, then I will go to the AE Only horses listed — #s 16 & 15. If it stays sod, then I go with a single here and my next “Key Play of the Day” — Root Cause (3). This one has run twice to date, with a win and a 2nd. Trained by the best turf man in this country. Enough for me. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 1-4-10-6-7-8-12 in the exactas. More with the 1 than the rest.
9th: 10/7-9-1/5-8/6/2-3…The day’s finale renders the last “Key Play of the Day,” too. I go hard with trainer Tom Amoss and his Majestic Flag (10) in this spot. This one has run 5 times and is still searching for the key to the locker room. But? Has a 2nd and a 3rd on the resume and that runner-up came over this strip. Looks solid in this spot, and the barn hits with .20% when coming off this deep of a bench ride. I like. I bet the 10 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 10 over/under there 7-9-1-5-8-6 in the exactas. More with the 7-9-1 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene
Leave A Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.