Churchill Downs’ Thursday Results:

Total Day Results 8 / 3-3-6
2022 Overall — 684 684 / 242-247-318
Win % of Top Pick 35.38%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.33%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 434-684 63.45%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 70–103 67.96%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 38-103 36.89%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 16/7-5-1 43.75% Win / 81.25% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 73-107 68.22%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 46-107 42.99%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 23/10-2-3 43.48% Win / 65.22% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  129/ 54-29-10 41.86% Win / 72.09% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 3/0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 20/3-1-2 15.00% Win / 30.00% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 1/1-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

Horseshoe Indianapolis’ Thursday Results:

Total Day Results 9 / 3-4-5
2022 Overall — 693 693 / 245-251-323
Win % of Top Pick 35.35%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.39%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 440-693 63.49%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 70–103 67.96%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 38-103 36.89%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 16/7-5-1 43.75% Win / 81.25% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 79-116 68.10%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 49-116 42.24%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 23/10-2-3 43.48% Win / 65.22% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  129/ 54-29-10 41.86% Win / 72.09% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 3/0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 20/3-1-2 15.00% Win / 30.00% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 1/1-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

Here’s our picks for Churchill Downs on Friday:

1st: 6-7/3-4/1/2/5…The ole’ lid-lifter is a 5-furlong affair for the 2YO fillies on the sod and I will line up with Grand Oak (6), who has some previous experience. Ran 2nd at KEE on the dirt. Ran behind a monster that day as the beaten favorite. Trainer got off the skid a bit and now has a win for the meet. This could add to the mix. Daughter of Speightstown is out of a Stakes-placed dam and this one may be able to run a bit better here with a cleaner break. I’ll give a shot, plus look at the come-back rider. Worth a shot. Cowichan (7) is a first-time starter for the “guru” of 2YO races. To add to the mix, this one is an Irish-bred and should love this new sod. Gets a clever grass rider for the initial start. Far outside post can be a bit tricky. If she doesn’t break out, may make the lead.I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-7 in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over (only) the 3-4-1-2 in a smaller unit.

2nd: 6-7-8/1/1A…Late September (6) is a 2YO colt and another from the barn of Rusty Arnold. Ran OK on debut at KEE on April 20. Hopped at the start of that one, too, and lost all chance. Still held it together to run 4th. Could do better here with a better beginning. Chance. Tivy (7) is a first time starter for HOF barn operation and the dam has 2 winners from 2 starters. Son of Into Mischief cost only $72,000 last October? Kidding me? Works are OK to start. Easy Big Boy (8) is another from the Asmussen barn and has been working OK, too. Worth a look. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas.

3rd: 4-5-1/6/3-2…Queen Louise (4) was claimed last time out at Turfway Park in March. Been off since then. Barn wins with 0-for-7 on the first try after a purchase. But this one has a 2nd in only previous try here and looks to have some talent.Positive Vibes (5) ran against the same likes as these last time out at KEE. Ran OK. this will be the 3rd try off the layup and the barn wins with .20% of those kind. Has raced here 12 times previously. Although has 4 2nds, still looking for the first win. Matt’s Honey (1) drops in class for this one and could fit perfectly with a return to a dry track. Will be coming very late in the proceedings and the veteran rider knows where the finish line is. In 10 previous runs here? Has a 2-1-3 mark. One to beat? Maybe. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

4th: 5/6-4-2/1-3/7…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Very Wealthy (5). This 3YO daughter of Bayern drops from the $50,000 tag to the $30,000 price point here, despite running 2nd at KEE last time out. Has 3 runner-ups in a row. Looks much the best, to me. I bet the 5 across the board and then key the 5 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 6-4-2 than the rest.

5th: 4-5/6-2/3/1A-1…Attentive (4) goes for the red-hot barn of Mike Maker, who has won 5 of the first 15 starts here this meet. Rider has won with .15% of the last 13 mounts for the barn and this one should appreciate the latest vacation. Barn wins with .18% off the bench. Next (5) will be dropping in the claiming ranks after being purchased last time out. The barn wins with .25% of those racing for the new connections for the first time and with .21% of those making the 3rd start off the layoff. This one was running in Graded Stakes last year. Could find the old magic. If anything left in this tank, it should show up here. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 6-2-3 in two smaller units.

6th: 8-10-9/5-3/1-7/4/2-6…Best Bet (8) is just that in this event. This 4YO son of Uncle Mo comes in off two 3rds in a row down at Oaklawn Park. Sharp work own May 15. May improve with the cut back in distance here, too. Barn wins with .22% when cutting back from a route to a sprint. Has speed to burn. May just sizzle these. Sea Force (10) is a first timer for the barn of Steve Asmussen. Working nice for the debut. Dam has 4 winners from 5 starters and a Stakes winner. Pedigree galore and love the sons of Derby winner Nyquist. Chance. Bluegrass Royale (9) is another first timer and the barn is red hot. Trainer has gone 2-1-2 in the first 7 starts to the meet. Dam of this one has 6 winners from 7 starts and 2 Stakes winners. Can’t dismiss. I bet the 8 across and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-3 in two smaller units.

7th: 6-7-4/5/1-8/2/3…Roderick (6) came off an extended layoff to run very well at KEE on April 20. Any improvement off that exercise, and this one should be poised for action. Interesting choice for the rider here. And, this one is a perfect 1-for-1 here in previous tries. I’m in. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under the 7-4-5-1-8 in two smaller units.

8th: 6-7-5/4-3-1/12-8-9/2-11…The #6 could be the hot number to play today. I’ve got another one here and if all of mine hit? That would make 4 on the card. Wow. Play the hard six all day, I say. Monition (6) comes in off a near miss 3rd and 2nd in the last two for a top trainer. Just a little luck in the stretch and this one could be a big winner here. Has speed. Should improve with the 3rd start off the layoff. Rider knows how to milk the pace, if allowed a loose rein. Could be a square price, too. El Kabong (7) will be running on late and won the last time out. Lost that condition, though, and will face tougher here. Will pick up 6 pounds off the last race, too. Lot of new weight to tote. Spyro (5) finished behind our top pick last time out at KEE. But has run much better in the past, too. A must use for me. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6-5 over/under the 7-4-3-1 in two smaller units.

9th: 2-6-7/8-9/1-3/4-5…Plausible Denile (2) gets the nod in the day’s finale. This 3YO son of Pioneerof the Nile cost $375,000 at a 2YO Sale last year and has yet to dent the winner’s circle. Could happen today. Barn wins with .26% of those returning as a beaten favorite and this distance could fit him perfectly. Open Road (6) is another #6 that could hit today. This one a firster from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a rate of .25% here this meet. Works are good and the connections paid $360,000 at the 2020 KEE September Yearling Sale for this one. Wait is over. Game day. York Tavern (7) is another newbie and comes from solid connections. Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters. Chance at a nice ML price. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8-9 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene