|Day Results||10 / 3-4-3|
|2020 Overall 524||524 / 188-171-207|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.88%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.01%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –335-524||63.93%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Spring-Summer: 22-32||68.75%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Spring-Summer: 12-32||37.50%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Spring-Summer: 1-1-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 73-23-17-10||31.51% Win / 68.49% ITM|
Modest day. Quiet day. Ho-hum day at the races.
But you know what they say, don’t you?
A ho-hum day at the races is better than most any other day any where else. Right?
Did have 3 winners. Did have 8 exactas out of the 10 races on the card. Cashed a lot of tickets. Didn’t cash a lot of money, though.
We will strive to do better on the Friday card.
Here’s our looks:
1st: 12-11-1/9-7/3-4-2…Sheriff Bianco (12) comes from the barn of trainer Wesley Ward, is a guru at these 2YO “Baby Races.” Didn’t win the first one here on Thursday, but did win one at Gulfstream Park on Thursday. Easily. This 2YO son of Speightster looks to be training well and comes from a dam who has 1 winner from 3 states — including a Stakes winner. Last work was a good one. Back Ring Luck (11) may add a little spark to the exacta price here. Listed at 10-1 in the ML. This one is by Malibu Moon and comes from some good connections, who have teamed up to do a lot the past couple of years. A flyer here. Cowan (1) is a real threat, too. Trained by Steve Asmussen. Sharp work on May 17. Looks fast. But the rail is no friend to these babies. I bet the 12-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 12-11 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
2nd: 7-8-2/5-6/1…Oro de Tejano (7) goes for a barn that has started this meet with a perfect 3-for-3 record. And, for the most part, they have been run-away or easy winners. This one looks to be another that has a great chance to add to that resume. Was claimed two starts ago from a top trainer. Moved up in class. And, ran huge. The barn is winning with .23% of those making the 2nd start after a claim purchase. This one has only 1 win in 22 lifetime starts. So? Will test even the hottest trainer on God’s green Earth. But does have 8 seconds and 1 third. Interesting watch here. Trashtalkinyankee (8) has only one win — but in 10 starts. Has 2 seconds and 4 thirds. Was claimed two back and really ran a winning race last time out, before faltering at the wire. Could be a tough out here. Galindo (2) has been facing much tougher, and now drops into the claiming ranks. Nice work here on May 17, but has not been out since Feb. 24. Has 4 seconds in 4 tries over this track. Consistent. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 5-6-1.
3rd: 3-10/6-5/7-11/8-4…Hardly a Secret (3) gets the nod here for trainer Chris Hartman and rider Jose Ortiz. Goes from a route to a sprint distance, and the barn hits with .20% of those cutting back. Has 2 wins and 3 seconds over this track and the race two back was spot on. Look for this one to be in a perfect spot heading for home. Gut check time. Lionite (10) ran a huge one last time out at some nice odds. Came from nowhere to somewhere at the wire. Barn hits with .25% when trying to get a repeat winner in the claiming ranks, and the drop off the win is very interesting here. Trying to buy another win? I bet the 3-10 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 3-10 over/under the 6-5-7-11 in two smaller units.
4th: 12-11-6/8-(16)/1-9-3…Rivers of Lite (12) could give the trainer back-to-back wins. Has raced only 3 times so far, but has a couple of really nice races back-to-back going into this spot. Will get the blinkers for the first time, and the barn hits with .13% of those kind. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn hits with .19% of those. Like the rider assignment. Looks perfectly placed here. Taino House (11) is a first time starter for a barn that wins with .19% of those making the debut in the MCL ranks. Worked great at the Fair Grounds on March 28. Florida-bred may gas early. Spelling Bee (6) is another first time starter. Comes from the Ward barn. Trainer hits with .24% of those debuting in the MCL ranks, and the works are OK for this one. Owners known to drop low to win a race, too. I bet the 12 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 12 over/under the “all button” here, too.
5th: 9-10/7-4-1-11/6-8-1A-3…Back outside for my top two picks here. Sturdy One (9) will get the second start off a layup for a HOF trainer. Wins at .18% clip when going the 2nd time coming back. Work on May 11 was spot on. Has speed to burn. Needs to save some for the last furlong. Sweet Carli (10) may be the horse to bat. This 4YO daughter of Brilliant Speed won the last time out and now has a 3-3-3 mark in 14 starts. Consistent sort. Nice finish to the last race. Moves up in conditions, though, to face tougher today. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-10 in one exacta. I will key the 9-10 over/under the 7-4-1-11-6-8 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-5/9-1-(14)-(13)/10-2-(15)-12/11-7…Tactician (6) is a 3YO colt by Tapit. Drops to the $20,000 price tag today. Ran a solid 3rd for $50,000 last time out at the Fair Grounds in February. This one is out of a Stakes-winning Medaglia d’Oro mare, too. Someone may claim this guy and head to a State for a breeding program, alone. Looks like a potential winner at this level today, too. I love the rider choice, and this chances here. Changing Lanes (5) drops from the MSW level at Delta Downs to the MCL ranks here. Has started the career with 3 straight seconds for owner Maggi Moss. Was favored in all three of them. Could be second. Again. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 6-5 over/under the 9-1-10-2-12 in two smaller versions. I use some of the AE horses if they get in.
7th: 5-11-(13)/(15)-(16)-(1A)/12-8-4/(1)-6-(14)…Chewing Gum (5) has a third in only previous try at this specialty sprint distance over the sod. But has the look of a horse that will appreciate the turn back from the 1-mile to the sprint today. Ran OK in a G3 event two races ago. Will need to get untracked earlier, but has the rider that can get that done, too. My solid pick here at what could be a fair price. Fig Jelly (11) is a true sprinter. Has 10 starts at this distance. Never won, mind you. But does have 8 seconds. Likes to hang late, but should be in the picture. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-11 in one exacta. I will key the 5-11 over/under the 12-8-4-6. Look to see if it comes off the grass. If so, the MTO horses rate very favorable here.
8th: 5-1-6/7/9-11-(14)/3-2-8-10-12…Center Aisle (5) is a perfect 1-for-1 and now will move up to face winners for the first time. Comes form the barn of Chad Brown, and his horses hit at a .27% rate when graduating to this category. Won for fun at odds-on favoritism in the debut. Gets the same top-end rider back up. Look for more out of this one. Daughter of Into Mischief could be cut out for a real good year. Stakes coming soon if wins today. Four Grands (1) may offer some real value to the exotics here. Ran great on debut. Did’t fire much in the next outing. I look for a nice return to form here. The “show” horse in the last race came right back to win the next outing. This one could pop a nice number here. Casual (6) figures to get a lot of money here, too. Won on debut at Oaklawn in April. Came with a nice late bid. Has worked OK since then and the barn hits with .21% when moving up to face winners for the first time. Daughters of Curlin get better with time, usually. This may be her time. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. Period.
9th: (12)-9-8/(13)-1-2-4-7/10-3-6-5…This is a 1-mile turf event, if the rains hold and the grass stays the course. If the conditions stay, I need one other favor. Can Viadera (12) please draw into the race from the AE List? Please? I love this Brit-bred daughter of Bated Breath. She gets Lasix for her first start in NA and the works have been spot on. Top rider takes the assignment. Will be tough on a soft ground, too. My pick if she gets in. If not? I go to Malakeh (9). This Brit-bred is coming off a win and in 4 starts in this country, she has two wins, a second and a fourth. Right there every time. Yet? She has not raced since last August, and this barn normally takes its’ time getting them ready off the bench. Has been training up at Fair Hill, too, and that may not translate best here. Just a little cautious here. Silver Kitten (8) could be a tough out. Has tons of speed. Will go right to the front. Over the last 4 outings, she has 3 wins and a second. May forget to stop on the lead. Again. Must use for me. I bet the 12 if she gets in. If not? I bet the 9-8 across the board and then I box the top 3 numbers — no matter who they are. Key the 12 and go strong here, if she makes the gate — for me.
10th: (14)-12-8-3/7-(13)-4-6-1/9-2-10-11/5…The final race of the day is a claiming event at the $40,000 level. Again, I will ask for a favor and some help from the AE List. My key horse here is French Rose (14), who must have a scratch or two to make the gate today. This one has not fired in either of the last two outings. Distanced, in fact, in both of those. But drops back into the claiming ranks — where she may belong and where she is definitely a contender. In 12 starts, she has a 2-1-1 record. At this distance, though? Two starts. A win. A second. Look for a lot here, if in. If not? I go to Just Fly (12). This one drops down in class for the 2020 debut. Has the speed and ability, if ready. Has been training very well for the return. Look for this one to carry her speed for much of this one. Fit enough? Duplicitous (8) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and the blinkers go back on. Both may help, and the work here on May 17 was spot on. May have to negotiate a clean trip late, but the rider is known for finding a spot, or making one. Little Red Frog (3) is 12-1 in the ML and if she stays anywhere close to that number? She will be our Upset Special of the Day. Has run 2nd in the last two and has a win over this track. Gets a top rider and will be coming late. I bet the 14 if she gets in. If not, I will be the 12-3 across the board and box the top 3 in the exacta.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene