Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on Friday, May 27

Stats Updated & Current

Here’s our looks for Friday:

1st: 3-2-4/6/1/5-1A…The first race of the day is a 5-furlong sprint for the 2YOs and I will line up with Summonyourcourage (3), a son of Practical Joke and one that cost $500,000 to purchase at the 2021 KEE September Yearling Sale. Dam has produced 5 winners from 6 starters and this one worked very well on May 20 at Belmont Park. So why does this one end up running in KY after training up in NY. How about a purse that is more than most Stakes events. Will encourage a road trip any time. Justafever (2) is another first time starter and this will be one of the first sons of Justify to make the gate. Homebred is from a dam who has 3 winners from 4 starters and has already produced a Stakes winner. Work on May 18 was spot on. Threat. Owen’s Leap (4) is a first time starter from the very interesting son of Medaglia d’Oro and would-be, could-be Santa Anita Derby winner Bolt d’Oro. Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and a Stakes winner, as well. Look at the work here on May 1. Look at that time. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

2nd: 8-3-5/6/2/1-7/4…Denver City (8) will make the third start for the new barn operator, who knows how to finish the job. Gets a new rider and that could help this one a lot. Barn wins with .10% when going from dirt to turf and this one has plenty of speed to burn and use. Could be off to the races, so to speak. Reed Kan (3) goes for a HOF trainer, who claimed this one just two starts ago — for himself. Spent $25,000 to get the job and the horse. Barn wins with .30% of the last 161 to make the 2nd start off the claim. Never Have I Ever (5) drops considerably for this affair and the barn is winning at a nice .25% rate here in limited starts this meet. Regular rider comes in for the mount. Could spell trouble here. I bet the 8-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

3rd: 4-5/2-3-7-1A/1…Curbs and Cones (4) is the ML favorite and comes in off an improving 5th in the last race at Oaklawn Park. Drops to less than half the asking price this time around and the barn wins with .31% of the last 70 in the 2nd start off a claim. Work here on April 24 was better than the race on May 1. Look for improvement here. Appalachianheights (5) won the last time out and now must have winners for the first time. Trainer struggles with this category, winning just .07% of the last 14 to move up. Does get a solid rider up and this trainer wins with .29% when it ships in for the assignment. Threat. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-5 in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 2-3-7-entry.

4th: 6-10-5/2-4/3-8-9…Princedreamcess (6) was claimed just two starts ago and drops from a $75,000 event last time out to the $10,000 level here. Wow. Fire sale? Something going on here? Just trying to steal a win? Love this rider choice and if you go two back? This one ran a huge 2nd against $50,000 level horses. Hard not to use. Easy to question why in for $10,000. Your choice. But I give it a shot. Raceday Attire (10) drops to half the asking price of the last race and she ran 2nd in that one. Has hit the board in each of the last 2 outings and the trainer wins with .19% when dropping 2 or more classifications at one time. Interesting. Candywrapper Crazy (5) goes for a barn that revs them up to both run fast early and bet fast early and often. This one has never been closer than 3rd, but that was in a MSW event at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 27≥ Works solid. Tough out. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-4 in two smaller units.

5th: 2-6/10-1-8-9/3-4/(12)-(13)/7-5…El Socio (2) drops to the $30,000 level here after facing allowance rank company in the last 4 outings. Before that one? A Stakes race. Has been close in three of those last 4 races. Gets a top rider who has carried the reins with this one before. Barn wins with .27% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Top pick. Solid. Endless Sunset (6) moves from the dirt to the turf and this barn wins with .22% of the last 65 to make this transition. Gets a clever grass rider for the assignment. I got to use. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 10-1-8-9-3-4 in two smaller units.

6th: 8-5-3/6/2/7/1-4…Skyscanner (8) gets the nod here. This 5YO gelding has run two solid races in a row and if this one can duplicate those efforts here on Friday? Look out. Veteran rider has won with 4 of the first 19 starts. Wow numbers there. Win With Pride (5) was claimed just two starts ago and this high win-percentage trainer makes a trip to the winner’s circle on 22% of the time following the 2nd start since the claim purchase. Interesting rider choice here. Can sit chilly on the back and will make a late run. In three starts here, this 8YO gelded son of Distorted Humor does have 2 wins. Chance. I bet the 8-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-5-3 over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

7th: 10-7-3/(13)-2-4-6-11/5-1/12…Five Prizes (10) is a Bernardini filly who cost $330,000 to purchase at the 2020 KEE September Yearling Sale and will make her 6th career start in this one. Gets the meet’s top rider up and the work pattern here is solid. Look for this one to press the pace and be ready to pounce when the real running begins. Butterbean (7) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is 6-1 in the ML and ran a huge 2nd as the beaten favorite last time out. Barn wins with .23% of those kind and the rider has gone 2-0-1 for this trainer in the last 4 outings. I bet the 10-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 13, if that one draws in from the AE List. If not? I will also key the 10-7 over/under the 3-13-2-4-6-11 in two smaller units.

8th: (7)/2-4-3/1-5/6…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Tiz Splendid News (7) if this one comes off the turf and this daughter of Maclean’s Music draws for the “MTO.” Has won the last two outings and this barn operator wins with .27% in the 3rd start off the layoff. Works are solid. Gets the meet’s top rider if he makes the gate. Look out. I bet the 7 if this one comes off the sod, and this guy makes the race. If not on both of those occasions, then I will revert to the 2 and bet this one across the board and then box the 2-4-3 in the exactas. 

9th: 2-4-10/1A-1/5-6-8/3-7-9…River Echo (2) gets the slight tip of the hat here in the day’s finale. This one goes for a barn that has won with .24% of the last 1,620 to run in the claiming ranks. This one does come from off the pace and will need some racing room and luck late. Rider is a regular for this barn. Has won with .14% of the last 42 for this trainer. My pick in a wide, wide, wide open affair. Money for Mischief (4) drops to claiming and has to be considered. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the entry in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene