|Total Day Results||9 / 5-2-4|
|2021 Overall 1,702||1702/ 643-610-807|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.78%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.34%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,155-1,702||67.86%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 87-128||67.97%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 42-128||32.81%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 17/8-3-0||47.06% Win / 64.71% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 259/ 118-57-24||45.56% Win / 76.83% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ CD 8/0-0-1||00.00% Win / 12.50% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0||19.05% Win / 23.81% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
Five winners on the Thursday card, and they came in a row starting with Race #3. Got 6 Exactas to ring the bell — including the last race for a popping $35.80 for each $1 played.
Our one “Key Play of the Day” was an easy winner, although it didn’t render much profits on the victory.
We are back for more action on Friday. Hope you are, too. Here’s our looks:
1st: 6-5/1-4-2/3…Flower Moon (6) is a first time starter for the barn of Eddie Kenneally, who hits with .11% on the debut run. This one is a 3YO daughter of Blame and has been training quite well, at times. Look at the work three back on Nov. 1. Bullet out of 83 workers that day. Pedigree is there. Works are there. Rider has won with .21% of the last 28 mounts for this operation. There. Chance at a price. Tizafeelin (5) has run once — at Sam Houston — for a top trainer who is a bit chilly here this meet. Barn wins with 25% when going from the MSW ranks to the MCL level, though, and picks up a rider who has turned a few heads here this meet. Has gone 3-1-1 in the last 11 mounts. Barn wins with .22% on the 2nd career race, too. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-5 in the exactas. I will key the 6-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: 6-4-3/5-2-1…I go back-to-back with the #6 to begin the day, and saddle up with Devil’s Tower (6) in this spot. (Now, this would have been super spooky if it was the 3rd “6” in a row and had this name, right?) But…back to our regular programming…This 3YO gelded son of Into Mischief will be making the 3rd start off the layup, and the barn wins with .21% of those kind. Won at KEE just two back and this one goes for a rider who is 3-1-1 in the last 12 outs, too. Has speed. It will travel. Road Bible (4) gets one of the hottest riders around. Few mounts here this meet, but in 21 “ups,” the jockey has 3-3-6 mark. Comes in off a win at KEE two back, as well, and ran solidly here on Nov. 7. In 2 tries at this distance? Has a win and a third. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 4-3-2/6/1-5…You just gotta bet a little on the “6” here, too, right? Just gotta. But my numbers give the edge to Feast (4), who comes in off a claim last time out. New barn wins with .15% on the first try and this one picks up the best rider in many lands for the first time. Love the works since the purchase. Looks poised. Grove Daddy (3) ran much better last time out and will be coming very, very late. Same connections who hooked up with Bell’s the One to capture the Dream Supreme Stakes over the weekend. Have gone 2-for-2 in the last 2. Needs room and luck late. Rob the Rich (2) goes for trainer Randy Mathews, who is highly underrated. Ran a better-than-looks 6th last time out and fits better in this spot. Chance. Freudian Fate (6) — just got to use. Claimed last time out. Moves up. Blinkers come off. I bet the 4-6 — take note — across the board and then box the 4-6-3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-3-6 over/under the 2 in two smaller units.
4th: 1/3-4-2-7-6/8-5-12/11…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Wild Appeal (1), who is a hefty 4-1 in the ML. this is a 2YO son of Wildcat Red, who will drop to a career low price tag here and pick up the services of Joel Rosario. If he can break well from the rail — and he has flashed speed in the past — it may be off to the races against this bunch. I’m all in. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the 3-4-2-7-6 in the exactas.
5th: 2/6-5-9-10/1-7/4-8…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes in this race with Jack’s Advantage (2). This 4YO son of Bayern was claimed last time out and drops to a price level that he ran 2nd by a head in back in June here. Barn wins with .35% when dropping off the claim, and this one has the speed to stalk and pounce at just the right time. Barn is winning at a swift .28% rate this meet, with 7 wins in 27 starts. Go-to rider takes the reins. I’m all in here, too. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under the 6-5-9-10 in the exactas.
6th: 5-9/3-8-2-1-4/6/7…Sol Dorado (5) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, and the barn wins with .22% of those. So far this meet, though, the barn is whiffing at an 0-for-18 rate. The “ducks” fly South for the winter, but this is not the landing spot that you want to be. Can’t imagine that this group will get blanked for the entire meet. Looks solid in this spot. After all? Ran in a Stakes just two races ago. Guajira (9) is owned and trained by Wesley Ward. Won the debut at Churchill Downs. But that was in May. “Show” horse came out of that race to win the next outing. Has not started since the debut win. Works are OK. Jockey is top notch. Hard to dismiss this guy in a 2YO race. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 5-9 over/under the 3-8-2-1-4 in two smaller units.
7th: 10-7/12-6-1-11/5-3-2-9/4…Rocket Dawg (10) comes from the Brad Cox barn, and I fully expect this group to catch fire for the remainder of this meet. Will start for the first time here and the barn wins with .17% of those. Connections paid a handsome $375,000 for this 2YO son of Classic Empire. Works are solid. Sire wins with .28% with debut runners, too. I’m in. Grantham (7) has had a tough season as the “defensive coordinator” at the University of Florida, but this horse by the same last name looks poised for a top effort on debut here. Works are spot on. Rider has teamed up with this barn to go 3-2-1 in the last 9 races together. Connections paid $280,000 for this son of Declaration of War. Only question is whether this one may be a grass horse? I bet the 10 across the board and then box the top 2 in the exactas. I will key the 10-7 over/under the 12-6-1-11 in two smaller units.
8th: 6-1-7/5-4-3/2…Speaking of Florida Gators? Well…Floria Gator (6) gets my top nod in this spot, a very tough allowance feature. The 2YO gelded son of Lea comes in off two nice wins in a row to begin the career. One of those didn’t count. Was DQ’d here back in September with this same rider up. Last time out, closed very well to get the win on the wire at Belmont Park. Ships here. Has trained good enough and gets a red-hot ridder to take the assignment. Trainer wins with .27% when moving up to face winners for the first time. Leddy (1) moves up off an impressive 71/4-length win last time out here. That was in the MCL ranks for Team Asmussen. Barn wins with .20% when facing winners for the first time, too. Interesting that Lanerie is now riding for this barn. Hmmm. Red Label (7) could be a surprise here. Does have a win at the distance and has been facing much, much tougher. May want to consider. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-4 in two smaller units.
9th: 6-4/1-2/3-9-1A/5-7/8-11-10…Verbier (6) is another from the Cox barn that I will use on top here today. this 2YO son of Arrogate is a home-bred for Juddmonte Farm, and I’m sure hoping that this one gets the job done for Garrett O’Rourke and all the folks at do such a great job at the farm. Ran much, much better than it looks on paper in the debut. Was checked and steadied very hard in that one. Look for much, much more here with a clean trip. So much in fact? I make this one my final “Key Play of the Day.” I will bet? I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-4 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under the 4-1-2-3-9 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene