|Day Results||10 / 6-3-4|
|2020 Overall 1481||1481 / 524-498-627|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.38%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.11%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –961-1,481||64.89%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 20-31||64.52%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 13-31||41.94%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 3-1-0-0||33.33% Win / 33.33% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 197-67-44-27||34.01% Win / 70.05% ITN|
I was once educated on the ills and troubles of attempting to handicap for and bet on races that were and are run over a sloppy racetrack. My “advisor” gave sage counsel. He said:
“I can guarantee you how to double your money,” he said, knowing full well that I would easily bite on the bait that had just been dropped in front of me.
“How?” I quickly responded.
“Take your money; fold it in half; and stick it all in your back pocket,” he said.
I chuckled a bit.
And, then ignored the advice.
On Thursday, I ignored the advice again. I handicapped. I wagered. And, I watched as 6 of my picks slopped their way over the water and the track hidden somewhere underneath to victories.
I had 5 winners in a row.
I had exactas that paid $10.70, $23.80, $32.30, $6.20, $24.30, $16.60 and $10.80 for each $1 played.
I had one of my two “Key Plays of the Day” roll, roll, roll your boat home.
I had a good day.
Here’s hoping that we can keep it up and build some momentum and a bit of cash roll going into next week’s Breeders’ Cup.
Here’s a look at Churchill Downs’ Friday card:
1st: 6/5/1-2-4/3…Delachaise (6) is our first “Key Play of the Day.” Didn’t take us long. The 4YO filly is coming off an easy and impressive win in her last outing her on Sept 23. Loses that condition and has to step up to face tougher, but in 11 lifetime starts? She does have a 2-1-2 mark and she appears to be doing very well right now. Has speed and that has been a plus here this meet. Looks the best of this group. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 5.
2nd: 4-1-5/2-3/6…Emperador (4) is a 3YO son of Curlin, and this one cost a cool $1 million at the 2017 KEE November Breeding Stock Sale as a weanling. Wow. Has made only one start to date for trainer Chad Brown, and that was a distant 3rd here in September. Should improve off that start and should be a bit closer to the pace today, as well. Went 5-wide for much of the last and was no threat from that far out. Twenty Twice (1) cost $275,000 at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale and has made 3 starts for owner Calumet Farm. Last two were improving. Gets the blinkers for the first time today and the barn wins with .13% of those. May be a tough out if the rider can negotiate the traffic in the lane. Abaan (5) will be making the third start and this one cost a modest $280,000 as a 2018 KEE September Yearling grad. Ran well last time out. Has some speed and that helps over this track these days. Come catch me if you can. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-6/5-1-2-4/3…Candy Carlos (7) drops to half the asking price today. Barn wins with .13% when dropping this much in one swoop. At this level two back, ran a OK 4th, but the winner that day came right back to win again. Looks better suited in this group, and the barn wins with .16% when making the 2nd start off the layup. The rider has been hot of late, going 5-1-2 in the last 18 mounts. Nice work on Oct. 22. Choice. December Seven (6) is the ML favorite and is coming off a nice 2nd against tougher last time out. That was over the sod, though, and now he will have to spread his wings and speed over the main track. Has 2 wins and a 2nd here in 9 previous tries. Good work here on Oct. 11. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top two numbers over/under the rest listed in two smaller units.
4th: 6-3/(12)-2-9/1-7/4-8/5-10…Suggested (6) nearly won the last two outings and will now stretch out a bit farther on the turf — if it stays on the grass. In 9 career starts, has 4 seconds and a third. Must get over the yips at the finish line. Maybe today? Pintxos (3) was claimed last time out and the new trainer only wins with .08% of those making the new barn debut. But? This one looks well spotted here and has the closing kick that may be needed over a soggy and tiring sod. Chance. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 6 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.
5th: 5-3-6/4/1-2…Verb (5) is the 4th one-word name that I have picked out in the first five races. Just noticed. Interesting. Very. But this one appears to be the best in the field, too. In 7 career starts, has a win and a second. But has added 5 thirds. Has speed. Has to carry it to the wire. In 3 starts here, has a win and two thirds. Come. On. Finish. It. Out. Elusive d’Oro (3) appears to be there one to beat. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time. Barn wins with .20% of those. Won over the grass course here two starts ago. Gets back to the dirt today. Barns wins with .21% making this surface switch. Can press the leader if they want. Has 4 seconds in 6 starts, too. Who wants to win? The Feature (6) ran a nice 2nd last time out at KEE. Came with a bit of a rally late and just found the finish line a little too quickly. Won the maiden just three starts ago. Looks good right now. Chance. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the rest in two shorter versions.
6th: 5-4/6-9/7-2/1-3-8…Roman Pharoah (5) will drop into the claiming ranks for the first time for a barn that has won a lot all year long. Ran up against some good ones in the debut. “Show” horse came right back to win the next outing. Barn wins with .28% when dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time and the rider is red hot — going 9-3-4 in the last 34 mounts. One to beat. Clearly Mad (4) drops considerably in the price category for this one. Ran huge on debut against much tougher. Winner of that one came right back to annex the next. But the last outing was a bit of a mystery after he set the early fractions. Now the parachute is out. Interesting. Beware. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in the exacta.
7th: 7-9/5-2-3/6-8/4-1…Bankruptonthebeach (7) is a great name, although I truly don’t like the runtogehternamething. This 3YO filly has posted two 2nds in a row and could have won either one. Seems to like the grass, but has a win over the main track to break the maiden, too. Gets a huge, huge, huge rider switch for this one. Beware. Auction Fever (9) is entered for the MTO. If she gets in, I use. If not? I don’t. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
8th: 8/6-7-9-1-3/4-5-2…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with one of my most favorite horses of the year — Dean Martini (8). This 3YO son of Cairo Prince was claimed by trainer Tom Amoss back in May. Came right back to run a heck of a race against a very good ARK-bred by the name of Man the Can. Captured the G3 Ohio Derby the next time out. Ran up against a buzz saw in Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby and spit the bit in the G3 Oklahoma Derby in the last two. But? This one has speed. Should appreciate the cut back in distance. And, is masterfully trained. Love his guy. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and at 6-1 in the ML? I load up, too. Load. Up. I key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
9th: 2-5-3/7-6-1-1A/4-8…Multiplier (2) is my top pick in a very nice field of older horses. This 6YO son of The Factor has been running in Graded Stakes. Now, drops back into the allowance company. Should appreciate this class relief and gets a top rider up. Has not won a race since 2018. Long trips between a drink of water. But could pop here in this spot today. Silver Prospector (5) has not been out since May, but the barn can win off the bench. Wins with .14% of those that have been on vacation this long. This one has a win and a third in two starts here. Will move up to face olders for the first time today, but there were legit high hopes for this one. Works look spot on. The one to beat? I use. Royal Mesa (3) has only one 3rd place finish in 4 previous runs here. Will face some tougher ones in here, too. But this one is steady. Has a 3-4-2 mark in 15 starts. Could stick around for part at the end. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 3-7-7-1-4-8 in two smaller units.
10th: 4-5-(14)/2-3-8/(11)-10-6/(12)-1-7-9…The finale is scheduled to be another over the grass course. Be interesting to see if it sticks. If so, I go with Saranya (4). This 2YO daughter of The Factor hails from the barn of Brad Cox and that barn wins with .27% when running the 2nd career race. Ran huge on debut here on Sept. 19. Should be a tough out in this spot. My pick. Amortization (5) comes from the barn of Chad Brown. Was a beaten favorite on debut and the barn wins with .28% on the 2nd career start. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 2-3-8-10-6-1 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene