|Total Day Results||8 / 4-2-3|
|2021 Overall 1,407||1407 / 536-496-678|
|Win % of Top Pick||38.10%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.51%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 952-1,407||67.67%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 5-8||62.50%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 4-8||50.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 1/1-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 210/ 94-48-21||44.78% Win / 77.62% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ CD 3/0-0-1||00.00% Win / 33.33% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (9-8-21) 11/3-0-0||27.27% Win / 27.27% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Ky Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM|
We jumped off to a nice start of the September race meet at the ole’ ball yard at Churchill Downs. In the first 8 races of this abbreviate race schedule, we booted home 4 winners and hammered some nice exactas that returned the likes of $19.40, $11.80, $12.10 and $21.60 for each $1 played correctly.
Our first “Key Play of the Day/Meet” won the 3rd race in impressive fashion and was 2-1 at Post Time. Nice.
Our three “Longshot Plays of the Day/Meet” didn’t fare as well, unfortunately. The first one stumbled badly at the start and nearly lost the rider, and did lose all chance of scoring at home. the next two were 4th and 3rd. Respectable.
We are looking forward to the rest of this week.
Stay tuned. The first Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes is coming on Saturday night.
Here’s our looks for the 10-race card scheduled for Friday at world’s most historic venue:
1st: 6-3-7/1/5-4/2…Ginny B gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval.” this 5YO mare by More Than Ready switches to the main track here and drops into the straight claiming ranks. Has only 1 win in 11 tries over a fast main track, but does have 4 seconds and a third on the resume, too. Barn has won with .23% when making this surface switch with the last 78 runners. Rider had a very chilly summer at Ellis Park. Fresh start. Fresh mind. In 7 starts here? One win and 3 seconds. Chance. Matt’s Honey (3) goes for a new trainer to the grounds and ships in from Prairie Meadows. This one did run well here in the Summer. In 7 starts over this track, this one has 2 wins, a second and a third. Seven wins in 21 tries over a fast main track. Hmmm. Interesting numbers. Magical Peapod (7) is an Indiana-bred who goes from a Indy-bred Stakes to a $20,000 tag. Last time in open company, this one did win on the sod. Has hit the board 8 times out of 12 over a fast main track. Gets a top rider. Should be better at the route distance, too. I bet the 3 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
2nd: 6-8/5-1-7/9/4-3-2…Classical Romance (6) goes for the HOF barn of Steve Asmussen, and will be running for the third time here. May improve with the stretch out, and barn wins with .19% of those routing for the first time. Drops into the claiming ranks after two MSW tries. Barn wins with .21% of the last 266 to do this. Barn’s go-to rider is up. Look out. Moon Over Tuscany (8) spit the bit early in the career debut at Ellis Park on Aug. 20. May have flipped the palate in that one, or developed some breathing issue. Just guessing. But something happened. Was right in the mix until she was not. Was well bet in that one, too. Has returned to work OK and the issue — if there was one — and I am willing to give another shot here. Barn wins with .18% on the 2nd try and gets a top rider to take the reins. Look out here. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 6-8 over/under the 5-1-7-9-4 in two smaller units.
3rd: 4-3-1/2-6/5…Palm Cottage (4) comes from the Brad Cox barn, and this guy comes up with runners all over the place. This one won on debut at Ellis Park on July 3. Returned to misfire in the stretch the next time out, but had serious issues at the start of that one. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up here and the barn wins with .34% of those that return to the gate as a beaten favorite. Also, barn wins with .29% when going from a route to a sprint. Should appreciate that distance reduction, too. I’m all in here. Minute Waltz (3) ran 4th in a Stakes event last time out and now falls back into the allowance company. Daughter of Nyquist cost a whopping $425,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale and the ownership group here likes to bet their steeds. Look out here. Has a win and two thirds in previous 3 tries here. Has speed will travel. Strong Silent (1) has run two big ones for the Dale Romans’ barn and comes in off an impressive win at Ellis Park on Aug. 1. Barn does win with .16% of those moving up to face winners for the first time. Has speed and sure to gas it from the rail lane. Look out. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 2-6 in a smaller unit.
4th: 3-1/4-5-7/2/6-9/8-10…Sidetown (3) inches out the rest in this rather soft group. Not excited about this selection too much and this event is wide, wide open, but? But this 3YO son of Twirling Candy does move from the grass over to the fast dirt — where I think he fits best. Also drops from the $30,000 tag to the $10,000 level here. Barn wins with .20% making the 2nd start off the layup. Looks to have the edge over this group. Sir Acealot (1) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one ran 3rd last time out at this same level. That was on the grass at Ellis Park, but this one won at the “Pea Patch” just two starts ago over the dirt. Chance. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 4-5-7-2-6-9 in two smaller units.
5th: 10-11-2/3-5-6-9/1-8/4…Keen Mind (10) will make the first start for a new barn operation in this spot, and, for the most part, this one has trained very well since the break and last race on June 4. This barn normally does very well in this venue and has won with .21% of 224 starters this year. Returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .24% of those. Be interesting to see how this one does. Loonshot (11) nearly won last time out at this same level, but that was over the sod, too. Previous two races were not much. Gets a big rider change here and looks promising at a nice price. Paynt Your Wagon (2) goes for a top claiming operation and this one wins with .25% on the first try after a claim purchase. Drops off that claiming price, too. Need a bigger truck? Trainer wins with .36% when doing that. I use. I bet the 10-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 10-2 over/under the 11-3-5-6-9-1 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-12/10-4-5-9/2-11/1-7/8…You always bet the #6 in the 6th race, right? Well, I do when the numbers add up and the horse is my top pick. LOL. Buffalo Shuffle (6) fits both of those criteria here. This 3YO Carpe Diem colt has raced 8 times with just one win. But has 3 seconds and comes in off a nice try last time for the $30,000 level. Drops to $20,000 here and in 4 previous runs here, this one has 2 seconds. Been racing against tougher ever since claimed for this $20,000 level here in early June. Figures. Striking a Pose (2) could be the spoiler. Rider is a question for me, until I see more. But has won with .18% of 544 mounts this year. This one is 0-for-8 this year. But drops to the lowest level yet. Maybe? I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the 12-10-4-5-9-2-11 in the exactas. More with the 12-10-4-5-9 than the rest.
7th: 4-1-3/9-2-5/6/10-7-8…Fabulous Fanny (4) is another from the barn of Steve Asmussen, and this one certainly figures in the 2nd career start. Ran well at Saratoga before tiring at the end. Was well bet in that one, too. Barn wins with .23% when going to the gate for the 2nd time. Pinched at the start of that one. If she gets a better start? Watch out. Watch. Out. I’m in. Catwings (1) has been working lights out for this first try and goes for a barn that wins with .23% when debuting at the MSW level. Daughter of Cupid cost $75,000 at the 2020 KEE September Yearling Sale and the dam has 2 winners from 2 starters — and a Stakes winner. Pedigree is there. Barn has gone 2-0-1 in the last 6 starts. Threat. Princedreamcess (3) could be a bit of a shocker in here, too. Ran much better than looks in the debut and should fit the dirt surface better than the AW. Works are solid. Chance. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I box the 4-1 again. Sternly. I will key the 4-1 over (only) the 3-9-2-5-6 in a smaller unit.
8th: 8-10/3-1-7/5-6-4/9-2…You always bet the #8 in the 8th race, right? Yeah. You know the story. Bayshore Foxes (8) comes in with two really good starts up at Saratoga. Drops to the $40,000 tag here and should be able to use her speed in the early going to get the jump on this crowd. Love the rider choice. He was 2nd on this one two races back. Work on Sept. 1 was spot on. Look for this one to be on the front and gunning it for home. Shastaloo (10) could be a threat. This one ran in a Stakes at Evangeline Downs last time out. Tired to be 3rd in that one, but cuts back to a sprint again here. Barn wins with .25% when going sprint to route and back to sprint. Barn’s go-to rider is up. could be a tough out at the wire. I bet the 8-10 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 3-1-7-5-6-4 in two softer units.
9th: 1-10-3/8/4-5/2-9/6-7…Beau Luminarie (1) stretches out to the 11/4-mile distance for the first time, but I think this 5YO gelding is certainly up to the challenge. Gets a rider who is very familiar with this barn operation and this one has hit the board in each of the last 10 efforts. Consistent sort looks like he may be able to get the jump on the late closers, too. My pick. Claytnthelionheart (10) has run two in a row at this distance and has a win and a very strong 2nd. Has the speed to take them the entire way on the front and gets a top rider, who has dominated the last few meets here. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn wins with .17% of those. Must use, for me. Mr. Big News (3) ran 3rd in the 2020 Kentucky Derby. So, you know the distance should not be an issue. Has raced only once this year and caught a muddy track in that one in August over in Virginia. This one has the styles points and the PPs to be much the best. Like to see if he can return to that level. I bet the 1-3 across the board. Take note. And, then I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller units.
10th: 2-7/9-11/12-5-1/6-10-3-8…The day’s finale is a 6-furlong sprint for the 2YO fillies at the MSW level. Nice field as been assembled, and I will go very strong with the first time starter — Patna (2). This daughter of Into Mischief is by the great Into Mischief and a home bred for Juddmonte Farm. The barn wins with .25% when debuting in the MSW ranks and this is a top notch client. Works are spot on. Dam has a winner form one starter. Adds up for me. My first “Key Play of the Day.” I will also take a look at Yuugiri (7) here, too. Working very well and gets a top rider up. Threat. I will bet the 2 to win/place/show. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will box the 2-7 in the exactas. I will also key the 2 over/under the 7-9-11-12-5-1-6 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene