|Day Results||9 / 3-1-3|
|2020 Overall 1190||1190 / 423-391-484|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.55%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.36%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –774-1,190||65.04%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 55-74||74.32%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 27-74||36.49%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 12-3-4-3||25.00% Win / 83.33% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 163-54-38-24||33.13% Win / 71.17% ITM|
We kick started the Churchill Downs’ September race meet on Thursday and we coaxed home three winners out of the 9-race card. We also added exactas that returned $6.80, $40.00, $25.60, $15.50 and $8.40 for each $1 played.
We will be back in action on Friday.
Here’s are looks and picks. And, here’s hoping we land a couple of “big fish,” too.
1st: 1-2-6/4-5/3…Spanish Peaks (1) ships down from Saratoga and drops to the lowest class level in the brief career. Barn wins with .36% of those that are dropping off a claim, and with .25% of those racing for the new connections after a claim purchase. Should improve with the shorter distance here and gets the barn’s go-to rider up. Work on Sept. 10 looks impressive. Soul Alibi (2) is 10-1 in the ML and could be our very first Upset Special of the Day. This 3YO daughter of Morning One ran a huge 3rd on debut on July 24. That was over the grass and that was going 5.5-furlongs. When stretched out for the first time, this one spit the bit. Now, she gets back to the sprint distance. Barn wins with .22% of those that drops this much in class in one swoop. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: 4/1-6/2-3-5…The first Key Play of the Day comes right here with Mo Flash (4). This 5YO Uncle Mo mare — who has put up a record of 7-4-5 in 28 lifetime starts to date — was claimed last time out at Saratoga for a handsome $25,000. Now, just about a month later, the mare is back in and being offered up for $8,000. Two starts back, this one won. Four starts back, this one won again. In 13 starts at this distance, the one has a 4-2-3 record. Looks poised. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller exacta plays.
3rd: 5-7-3/2-4/1…West Side Girl (5) has raced three times so far in the 2YOs career and has never been off the board. At the same time, the daughter of Shanghai Bobby has never been that close at the wire, either. Has a 2nd, but was beaten 11. Has two 3rds, but was distanced by nearly 10 in one of them. Still, this one looks very interesting and the barn wins with .19% of those that drop into the MCL ranks for the first time. Ever. Like the rider switch. Ambitiously Placed (7) gets the move up for me today after I found out that the 2YO daughter of Flat Out is partially-owned by a great friend and supporter. Truthfully, though, this one has a real chance, too. Has run three straight 4ths at Ellis Park and has faced better in those events. Love the last work and the trainer is having a very nice year. Good luck to these connections. They deserve a photo session today. More Is More (3) is a 2YO daughter of More Than Ready and put up a huge number in the last start here on Aug. 23. Will make the 2nd route race of the career, and the barn wins with .80% of those. E-I-G-H-T-Y. Wow. Looks like an interesting duel. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 5-7 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
4th: 2-6-3/5/1-4…West Bank Baby (2) ran a huge one last time out at Ellis Park on July 25. Nearly won that one when coming late in the proceedings. Will cut back to 6 furlongs today and this 3YO daughter of Candy Ride has never been that distance, to date. But the last time she went 6.5-furlongs, she won impressively, and both the “Place” and “Show” horses that day came right back to win the next time out. Rider has won 3 of the last 9 races, too. Hot connections. Gold Button (6) won here in June, and did so impressively against better competition. Came right back to run a poor result at Indy Grand in July. But this 3YO Gemologist filly was “squeezed back” at the start of that one and never was able to get into the race. Look for more out of this one today, especially with a familiar face and hand coming to the table and the saddle. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
5th: 3/(8)-4-6-7/5-1/2…Ten Flat (3) is our second Key Play of the Day. The 3YO son of Paynter comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning with .24% of 580 races this year. The rider of this one has gone 3-1-0 in the last 6 starts for this barn operator. In each of the last two races, the barn has pushed the grass and this one has finished 2nd in each. Back on the sod here and the barn wins with .26% of turf races. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 5-4/1-6/3-7/8…Frost of Frippery (5) comes into this one on a 5-race win streak. Over the last 10 races, the 7YO gelded son of Lewis Michael has never been worse than second — and he has 6 wins in that mix. At Churchill Downs, this one has a 4-2-6 record in 22 starts and now will get a rider back who has won on his back twice. Rider has gone 5-3-1 in the last 14 mounts for this barn operation. Looks hot. Again. Charlie’sarchangel (4) ran a huge one last time out to be 3rd in a $40,000 claiming event here earlier this month. In 6 starts here, he has a 2-0-3 mark. At this distance, has 2 wins and 5 thirds in just 9 starts. Barn hits with .31% in the second start off a claim, too. I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box these two in the exacta. I will key the 5-4 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
7th: 8-1-2/5-3/4-7-6…This is a 2YO race for the boys and is dominated by high-end pedigrees, top connections and talent galore — most of whom are making the career debut today. Hard to handicap the way they will run — since most of them have not had a race under the girth yet. But it is easy to see why some of these have high expectations. I will give the edge to Go West (8) — a son of Street Sense that cost the connections $300,000 to purchase at last year’s KEE September Yearling Sale. Has been working lights out for a top trainer, who wins with .13% on debut in the MSW ranks. Dam of this one has a winner from one starter — and that one is already a Stakes winner. Hot. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5-3 in two smaller units.
8th: 7-3/1-4/8-2-5/6…Sun Summers (7) nearly won the last time out when racing in the claiming ranks at Saratoga. That was the first start for the new barn connections after being claimed the time before at Belmont Park. Barn hits with .22% of those making the 2nd start after the purchase and this one gets a top rider for the assignment today. Rider wins with .18% of the last 33 mounts for this barn. Returns as a beaten favorite today, too, and the trainer wins with .23% of those kind. Jen Take Charge (3) has been running very well against tougher competition. Was 2nd here on June 5, and, now, has a 1-2-2 mark in the first 7 starts. May improve with a cutback in the distance today, and the dam of this one has a turf winner already — this one. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-1 in one exacta. I will key the 7-3 over/under the 1-4-8-2-5 in two smaller units.
9th: 1-2-7/5-3-8/4…What a nice allowance race that has been assembled here by Churchill Downs’ fine Racing Secretary Ben Huffman. I will give the slight edge to Admire (1). This one ran 2nd last time out as the near-even money favorite. Stretches out to 11/8 miles today and that should not hurt this one. Barn wins with .30% of those that return as a beaten favorite and the rider has won 2 of 3 — with the second — when on this one’s back. My pick. Mister Candy Ride (2) may be a nice play here, too, at the ML odds. The son of Candy Ride ran well on debut and then won the 2nd start at GP in February. Good ones in that market at that time of year. Last race was in March, when he ran behind Money Moves. Remember that one? Look for this one to show a little late run in the stretch today and that could be enough. I bet the 1-2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 2 over/under the 7-5-3-8 in two smaller units.
10th: 2-1/7-10-9/3-8/4-5…We end the day’s activities with another “baby race” for the colts, and I will give the edge to Money Miles (2). This one has a two-race experience edge on most of these and was coming in the last race at Ellis Park. Returns as a beaten favorite for a barn that wins with .24% of those kind. Work here on Sept. 10 was spot on. Look for a big move out of this one today. Birthday Party (1) is a first timer, who draws the rail. I shy from those kind, but this one has the breeding and the barn connections to be really good. Works have been spot on, too. Looks poised to show some gas early. Can he carry it the distance? I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-1 in the exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the “all button” in here, as well.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene