||8 / 3-4-5
|2022 Overall — 1682
||1682 / 567-620-798
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1079-1682
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 18-35
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 10-35
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 3/0-2-0
||00.00% Win / 66.67% ITM
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 315-473
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 166-473
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 64/26-9-7
||40.63% Win / 64.06% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 270/ 107-58-25
||39.63% Win / 70.37% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 11/2-1-1
||18.18% Win / 36.36% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 44/9-7-5
||20.45% Win / 47.73% ITM
Stats Are Now Completely Updated
We have not been firing on all cylinders of late, but here’s hoping that we can turn it around and turn it up starting right here, right now.
We have a big weekend in store, with the Saturday Night Lights activities at Churchill Downs and a whole host of major Stakes events leading up to the Breeders’ Cup on the first weekend in November.
So, it’s game time.
And, here’s our game-time picks at Churchill Downs, as we kick-start what could be an all-star weekend:
1st: 6-1/2-4/3/5…Drena’s Star (6) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval” in Louisville on this Friday kick start to the weekend. The 7YO gelding has raced here 6 previous times with only 4 thirds on the resume. But the race here two back — in mid-May — was against much better. Drops to a career low price tag here and is respected as the ML favorite. Holes to be found here, to be sure. But the lot? Hard to find another. Higher Authority (1) could pose a threat, I guess. Won the last time out at Colonial and has two good runs in a row. In 7 starts here previously? One win. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-1 in the exactas. I will key the 6-1 over/under the 2-4-3 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-6-1/4/5/2…Lady Demaree (3) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 10-1 in the ML and could pop a huge price early in the card. I toss the last effort. That was one the grass and this one was “checked hard” in that affair, losing all contact and chance. Race two back was spot on at Ellis Park. Drop into the claiming ranks here for the first time and the barn wins with .11% of those kind. Trainer excels at this surface switch — winning at a .28% rate. Sparkle of Hope (6) drops in class for this one after a solid run here on July 3. In 5 previous tries here, has 2 seconds. Gets a top rider back for the assignment. Bourbina (1) has hit the board in 6 of 14 lifetime, but has only the single win. Underneath? I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 1-4-5 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-1/2/3-5-8/4/6…Jake Rocks (7) goes for a trainer, whom I do not know but has won with .26% of 87 starts this year. Those are impressive numbers. But? Trainer is 0-for-11 in the 2nd start after a claim purchase. Ran well at Belmont Park back in the Summer. Shipper could add a look here. Ubiquitous (1) tossed a clunker when stretching out to two turns on the grass at Colonial last time out. Cuts back to the sprint distance here and gets back to dirt. Both could assist this one in this spot. Gets a new rider who could assist the effort, too. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.
4th: 1-8/2-7/5-6-9/3/4…Chipmunk (1) didn’t like the AW surface last time out, to be sure, but has shown some ability over the dirt at Guflstream Park. Drops to a career low price level here and should have some early spunk. Chance. Julia’s Chardonnay (8) drops from the MSW level to the MCL ranks here for the first time. Barn wins with .10% of those kind. Work on Sept. 9 was spot on. Chance, as well. I bet the 8 — take note — across the board and then box the top 2 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1-8 over/under the 2-7-5-6-9 in two smaller units.
5th: 6-7-3/1-2/4//5-8…Bold Looker (6) goes for one of the more underrated trainers in the game and has the look of one that is very well spotted and improving, as well. Ran 2nd at Saratoga last time out and has faced some good ones in the past. Look out here. Gate Runner (7) ran well here back in the Spring and could be ready for graduation day, as well. Ships in from Saratoga and goes for a HOF outfit. Barn can get them ready off the bench. Ten Gauge (3) has raced here 3 times and has 2 seconds. But, then again, has 4 runner-ups in 8 races so far. Needs to find a way to pass horses in the stretch. Today? I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-2 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-4/5-8/2-7/1-3…Shadow Matter (6) is my solid selection here, despite the last race and the first effort for this barn. Look no farther than the start of that affair. Hit the gate. And, hard. Lost all shot at the beginning. Drops to a career-low price point here and gets a top rider for the job. I’m in. All in. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-4 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under the 4-5-8-2-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-2/3-5-12/9-11-6-8/10/1…Methodology (7) is a first time starter from the barn of Brad Cox and for the owner/breeder Godolphin Stables. Has worked well for this first try and the dam of this 2YO Uncle Mo filly has 2 winners from 2 starters and has produced a Stakes-winner already. Lots of credentials. Indy Again (2) could be a big price for a barn that rarely wins on debut. But the dam of this one has 2 winners from 4 starters and the works leading up are promising. Rider is red hot. Red, red, red hot. Has won at a .26% clip to begin this meet and picking up mounts right and left. Look out. At a price. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I key the 7-2 over/under the 3-5-12-9-11-6-8 in two smaller units.
8th: 10/4-1/3-5-7-8/6-9/2…The first “Key Play of the Day” is Kant Believe It (10). This 3YO filly gets Lasix for the first time today and despite the fact that she has not run yet in 2022, she has the look of a winner. Two spectacular runs in the first two career races and works off the charts. Trainer has won with only .05% of those away this long, but this one just has “the look.” Gets a top rider up, and he has won with this gal before, too. I bet the 10 across the board and then key the 10 over/under the 4-1-3-5-7-8-6-9 in the exactas. More with the 4-1 than the rest.
9th: 2-4-6/1A/1-7/3/5…What a difficult race to predict, and what a classy group that could easily make this one Stakes-caliber. I give the edge to Kneedeepinsnow (2). This 6YO has a win and a third in two previous tries over this main track. Ran 2nd to Jackie’s Warrior in a G1 at Saratoga just two starts ago. That would be a G1. Now in an allowance here? Wow. He’smyhoneybadger (4) has a win and two 2nds in three starts here. Goes for a trainer who dominates this circuit and is coming off a fast-closing 2nd in a Stakes at Laurel last time out. But? This is 2022 debut. Works are solid. Bango (6) loves it here. Has 7 wins in 14 starts over this track. Won the Aristides Stakes here in June. Work on Sept. 17 was spot on. Don’t leave out with this return to his favorite rider. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the entry in two smaller units.
10th: 10-8/11-4-6-7/1-2/3-9/5…Childers (10) gets the nod in the day’s finale, and could boost Tyler Gaffalione to a huge day at the winner’s circle. This one ran 3rd on debut at Saratoga in August. Was in the mix right up until the final stages, when he was headed and tired. Runner-up that day has come back to win the next outing. Work here on Sept. 8 was spot on. Look out here. May not stop this time. Golden Reign (8) ran well over the turf at Ellis in the debut start. Tired in that one, too But the barn wins with .22% of the last 164 to make the 2nd career start, and wins with .23% of the last 189 to make this surface switch. Chance. I bet the 10 across the board and then box the 10-8 in the exactas. I will key the 10-8 over/under the 11-4-6-7-1-2 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene