Total Day Results 12 / 5-2-5
2021 Overall 1,776 1776 / 665-641-834
Win % of Top Pick 37.44%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.17%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,204-1,776 67.79%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 136-202 67.33%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 64-202 31.68%
“Key Horses” @ CD 28/12-6-0 42.86% Win / 64.29% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 270/ 122-60-24 45.19% Win / 76.30% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ CD 15/0-1-1 00.00% Win / 13.33% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0 19.05% Win / 23.81% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

Sunday is here. The final day of live racing at Churchill Downs for 2021. Hard to believe, really. Days and year’s go fast and faster than most Thoroughbreds these years.

And, here we are. On the cusp of turning the calendar yet again and moving on to the Tapeta at what will soon be the “New & Improved” Turfway Park.

Here’s our looks for the final day’s of action at the big oval in Louisville:

1st: 1-4-5/2/3-6/1A/7…Butterbean (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louisville on Sunday. This 2YO daughter of Klimt comes in off a near-miss 2nd in the career debut here on Oct. 31. Lost by less than 1/2-length. The barn has had a terrific meet and does much better with 2nd-time starters — .17% of the last 177. Working well. Rider is red hot and has won with .22% of the last 76. Get on board and ride. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.

2nd: 8/3-2-4-1/6-7/5…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Lord Dragon (8), who gets the services of Joel Rosario for the first time. Likes to motor in the lane and will need some racing room. Rider has a way of motivating them just at the right time. Sharp work on Nov. 24. Drops to a career-low price tag here. Has a 1-2-2 record in 8 starts here. I bet the 8 to win/place and then key the 8 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. I use more with the 3-2-4-1 than the rest.

3rd: 7-8/9-11-4/2-5-10/1-3-6…Madelyns Heat (7) ran a solid 2nd last time out in the career debut when facing similar. Came late in that one as the beaten favorite. Barn is having a terrific meet, too, and has won with .32% of the first 38 starters. Trainer wins with .24% of those returning as a defeated fan’s choice. Looks solid here. Paynt Your Wagon (8) drops to half the asking price here after a distant 3rd last time out here in the September. Barn’s go-to rider is up, and he has won with .23% of the last 31 for this trainer. Should be the speed in here. Come catch me if you can. I bet the 7-8 across the board and then box these two solidly in the exactas. I will key the 7-8 over/under the 9-11-4-2 in two smaller versions.

4th: 10-12-4/3-2/8-11/9-7/1-6…Petit Verdot (10) drops considerably to the career-low tag here and the barn wins with .36% when falling this much at once in the claiming ranks. Just claimed this one for $30,000, too. Now? In for $10,000. Barn wins with .38% of those dropping off the purchase. Has speed. Will travel. Rider is 3-1-0 in the last 9 ups. American Union (12) drops from the $50,000 ranks all the way to the $10,000 level here. Veteran rider takes the reins again. Has run against much, much tougher and held his own. Threat. Mr. Quality (4) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one has never won here, but does have 3 3rds in 4 tries over this surface and goes for the lowest price tag yet, as well. Consider. I bet the 10-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-2 in two smaller units. 

5th: 10/7-3-9/1-4-5/2-6/8…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Three Technique (10). This 4YO son of Mr Speaker drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and the new trainer wins with .40% of those kind. Has raced only once since Saratoga in early September. That was disappointing, but that was a terrific bunch of older  horses, too. Should be fitter and gets a top rider up for the first time. Look out. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then key the 10 over/under the 73-9-1-4-5 in the exactas. 

6th: 5-6/4-1-7/8-11-10/3-9…Winterwood (5) came with a huge rush to nearly get the job done at the wire in the career debut here on Oct. 31. Barn wins with .24% on the 2nd career race and the rider is winning at a whopping .35% rate for this trainer in the last 17 starts together. Look out here. Surfer Dude (6) has punched out two 3rds in a row for a barn that normally takes his time with the 2YO set. This 2YO son of Curlin looks to have some real potential and the cutback in distance here should be a help. Gets a new rider who will win his next Churchill Downs riding title here today. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 4-1-7-8 in two smaller units.

7th: (13)/5-7/(15)-3-12-2-(14)/8-1-10/6-9-11…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes from the AE List and if she gets in — Promises to Dance (13). This 2YO daughter of Broken Vow goes for the barn of Brad Cox and this one nearly won the debut here on Oct. 31. Led the entire way until the wire. Should be a tough out here. I bet the 13 — if she gets in — across the board and then key the 13 over/under the 5-7-15-3-12-2-14 in the exactas. If the 13 does not draw in? I go with the 5-7 across the board and box those two in the exactas. 

8th: 3-11-12/8-9-2/4-6/1-5-7-10-(1A)…Caught Looking (3) is a 3YO Super Saver filly who broke the maiden here just two starts ago. Ran very good and much better than it looks when facing winners for the first time last out. Gets a nice rider switch here and does have solid speed numbers. Sweet Queen Bee (11) is my next “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one gets the services of Joel Rosario here and in three tries at this distance? Has a 1-1-1 mark. Take note. I toss the last one on the slop. Off We Go (12) ran well last time out, but tired at the end. That seems to be a trend with this one. I shade here. I bet the 3-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-11 over/under the 12-8-9-2 in two smaller units.

9th: 5-7-2/8-9/10-11/1-4…O P Firecracker (5) has run two good ones to begin the career and could have won either. Still sports the MSW brand, though, and will get a top rider up again here. Can close. Just needs a little more motivation at the top of the stretch. Look out. Monologue (7) goes for one of the top young trainers in the game today. Love the way this guy gets the most out of his stock and seemingly has them looking and acting good at post time. Would be no surprise here. Encourage (2) should improve on the 2nd try here. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8-9 in two smaller units.

10th: 5-9-8/10-3/2-7-11/4-1…Cody’s Wish (5) has never missed the board in 5 lifetime starts and has won the last two in a row in impressive fashion. Son of Curlin is a homebred for Godolphin Stables and could develop into a top colt for the next year. Like the looks of this one. A lot. Ducal (9) won the last time out, too, and this is a homebred for Juddmonte Farms. Has the speed of the race and they will have to come catch this one. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 10-3 in two smaller units.

11th: 3-7/5-6/1-2-4/8-9…Attachment Rate (3) will get his 1st start for the new barn operation and the trainer wins with .10% of those kind. But this one may just shine some of the old polish that he used to possess. Won in February at Gulfstream Park and ran 14th in the 2020 Kentucky Derby. This distance looks to fit him best, though, and the work here on Nov. 21 was spot on. Spot on. Spot. On. I go here. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-7 in the exactas. I will key the 3-7 over/under the 5-6-1-2-4 in two smaller units. 

12th: 8-5-(13)/12-6-(14)/2-9-10-11/1-7/4…Lady Traveler (8) gets the nod in the last race at Churchill Downs in 2021. This 3YO Quality Road filly has raced here 6 times. Has a 1-1-2 mark and comes in off a solid 3rd here on Nov. 7. Work her on Nov. 24 was good. Looks to be sitting on go here. Silver Strand (5) won the debut at Saratoga, but faltered mightily as the favorite in the next out at KEE. Both of those in the slop. Look for this one to rebound with a huge effort here. My pick. Fire On Time (13) is a definite contender if she draws in from the AE List. Must use. I bet the 5 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 12-6 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene