Updated Stats / Comments Added: McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on KY Derby Day — Saturday, May 7

(Stats to be updated after Friday’s card is completed)

Here’s our looks for the Derby Day card this Saturday. More details to come. First issue.

1st: 7-9-(13)/10-2-4-(14)/6-11/3/1-5-8…“Derby Day” is here. Finally. Let’s just hope the weather cooperates, a bit, and we are all able to congregate; celebrate and sing one song. Together. All together. Again. I will line up with Warrior Johny (7) in the ole’ lid-lifter. This 3YO gelding nearly missed last time out at KEE, when 2nd by just 1/2-length. Has never raced here before, but the trainer is known for cranking them up and asking for speed and gets an aggressive rider for the journey, too. If they can avoid trouble? Look out. Congressman (9) comes from the barn of Todd Pletcher and this one ran well before tiring late in the final stages. Runner-up that day comes back today, as well, in the finale. This one should improve off the layoff and be ready, poised and action. Longer distance could help. Trainer is 3-1-1 in the first 7 starts this meet. Jump on board here. Montauk Point (13) is a must-use for me if this 3YO son of Violence draws in from the AE List. Has hit the board in each of the last 3 outings and the shades were added last time out. Returns as a beaten favorite and this barn wins with .19% of those kind. Look out here, if he draws in for the HOF trainer. I bet the 9 — take note — across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7-9 over/under 10-2-4-6-11 if the AE horses do not get in, in two smaller units.

2nd: 2-4/8/1-6/5-9-7/3-10…Stayed in for Half (2) is a very talented sort and has never been worse than 2nd in three tries so far. Gets the world’s top rider now and that is a huge improvement. Works are OK leading up and this one looks poised. I’m in here. Surfer Dude (4) ran very well at KEE over a wet-fast track and we don’t know what the surface will be like on Saturday morn. If it has some moisture in it, this may be a plus-play, as well. Has raced here 3 times before with a win and a 3rd on the resume. Rider is red hot, going 5-0-3 in the first 13 mounts. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win bet. I will box the 2-4 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 4-8-1-6-5-9-7 in two smaller units.

3rd: 6-7/(10)/9/8-3-2-4/1-5…The first turf event of the day is scheduled to be contested at 11/8 miles. I will line up with Ready Lady (6), who  has a start this year and it was a near-missed 3rd over at KEE over a “good” turf track. Had some give in the surface that day and may be that way again here. Like the rider and should be fitter after the first 2022 try. Could be poised. Final Belle (7) goes for the HOF barn of Bill Mott, who is off to a nice start to this meet and 2022 overall. This one has not finished the deal in either of the 2022 starts so far, but may find this one to her liking. Ran much better than the 4th indicates last time out. I think she is a must use for me. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-7 in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 10-9-8-3-2-4 in two smaller units.

4th: (1A)-2-10/1-6-8-11/12/4-3/5-7/9…My top selection here will need some luck before this race ever occurs. Varatti (1A) will need a scratch, or two, to draw in from the AE List to the body of the race. And, even at that, will then have to break from the far outside post in a full field. Not easy. Especially at this 11/16-mile distance. If this 3YO son of Into Mischief does make the gate, though, he will make his 2nd start off the layoff, and this barn wins with .23% of the last 303 to do that. In addition, this will be the first route race for this one and the barn wins with .24% of those kind. Look at who this horse beat to break the MSW last September. The 3rd place finisher in that race was none other than Mo Donegal. Who will run a bit later in the day. If the 1A does Not draw in, then I revert to Bye Bye Bobby (2). This son of Quality Road will break from the rail and will drop out of the G3 Sunland Derby to this level. The winner of that race was Slow Down Andy, who defeated Messier in the Los Alamitos Futurity last year. Bye Bye has run 2nd in the last 3 and should be a tough out at the wire. Money Supply (10) comes from the barn of Chad Brown and this one has been training lights out for this one. Is coming off a 5th place finish in the Lafayette Stakes last time out. Had a terrible trip in that one, when steadied repeatedly in the early stages. A clean trip could boost this one into the winner’s circle. I will be the 1A if he gets in. If not, I will bet the 2-10 across the board. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-6-8-11 in two smaller units.

5th: 8-5/7/2-4-6-1/3…G2 Distaff Turf Mile…This is the 2nd turf race on the card and the first sod Stakes event. I will give the edge to Speak of the Devil (8). This is a 5YO mare trained by Chad Brown, who is winning at an amazing .33% after 228 starts this year. Amazing. This one has not started since November and has never started in NA. Trainer wins with .27% when away this long and with .22% of the last 60 to make the NA debut. Sharp work at Payson Park, in Florida, on April 23. Looks ready. Wakanaka (5) is another former European runner to make this race, but this 4YO filly has made two starts here, so far. Nearly won last time out when running in the G3 Honey Fox Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 5. Could improve here. In Italian (7) won the G3 Honey Fox last time out, but this one truly needs the lead and there are other speedsters in this event, too. Still? A must use for me. I bet the 8-5 across the board and then box the 8-5-7 in the exactas. I will key the 8-5 over/under the 7-2-4-6-1 in two smaller units.

6th: 10-2-11/4/7-12-8/5/1-3/6-9…Knicks Go Overnight Stakes…This is the mile Stakes event over the main track and is named for one of the best milers to come along in recent times. I go with my first “Upset Special of the Day” — Major Fed (10). This 5YO son of Ghostzapper has never run at this distance. Interesting. But this guy has run here 7 times already in the career and has a resume of 2-2-1. Could have been better with just a little luck. This one is a stalker, who will need racing room and a taste of some good luck. If he gets it? Look out. Check out this one’s last workout here. Spot. On. Shared Sense (2) has raced here 4 times in the past and has a record of 1-2-1. At this distance, though, this son of Street Sense has gone 2-1-0 in 4 previous tries. Is coming off a win at the Fair Grounds and has some powerful stretch run to him. Barn off to a great start this meet. Necker Island (11) has raced here 9 times so far and has gotten to the winner’s circle 5 different times. Has the ability to charge late, as well. I bet the 10 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units.

7th: 5/1/3-10-11/2-8-12/6-9/4-7…G2 Pat Day Mile…This is a fine collection of 3YOs, who are hoping to annex a major Stakes event on Derby Day. Some of these are cutting back after giving a shot to make this year’s KY Derby field. Others, on the other hand, are stretching out to see if they can carry this sprinter speed a bit farther. I will go with my first “Key Play of the Day” — Jack Christopher (5). This guy looked to be a serious contender for this year’s Derby after two impressive wins as a 2YO — including the G1 Champagne. But the son of Munnings has not raced since last October and missed too much time to make the prep races. Has been working lights out for trainer Chad Brown and looks ready to resume exactly where he left off. He could be the best of the generation. Yet. May get started right here. I bet the 5 to win/place and then key the 5 over/under the 1-3-10-11-2-8-12 in the exactas. More with the 1 than the rest. A little less with the 3-10-11. Lesser on the rest.

8th: 5-2/6-7/4/8/1/3…G1 Derby City Distaff Stakes…This is a 7-furlong sprint for the Fillies & Mares who are 4YO & Up. I give the slight edge to Obligatory (5). This daughter of Curlin comes in off two straight wins in G3 Stakes. At Churchill Downs? Has raced here twice before. Won them both. Gets a former rider back on the back, again. Has the ability to close the deal in the stretch. Just One Time (2) is coming off a powerful win in the G1 Madison Stakes at KEE on April 9. Came from off the pace to get that job done. New rider returns after that successs story. Sharp work on April 30. Trainer/Jockey combo has gone 2-0-1 in the last 6. Would not be a surprise. Bell’s the One (6) is one of my all-time favorites, and she has the class to win here, too. But in 10 lifetime starts at this distance? Has a 2-4-2 record. You would think, by her running style, this would fit her better. It has not worked out that way, to date. Late runner. Chance. I bet the 5-2 across the board and then box the 5-2 strong in the exactas. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 6-7-4-8 in two smaller units. I also box the 5-2-6 in a smaller effort.

9th: 7-10-4/2-6-8/3-9-11-5/1…G2 American Turf Stakes…This grass event will be for the 3YOs and contested at the 11/16-mile distance. I go strong here with Sy Dog (7), who is coming off an impressive, late-closing win in the G3 Transylvania Stakes at KEE in the last outing. Is undefeated now after 3 lifetime starts. Has a top rider and this one can close with powerful kicks. Looks well-spotted here, too. Coinage (10) looked like a winner in the Transy until the final stages and when our top pick motored right on by very late in those proceedings. Has speed. Can use in early or wait and stalk a bit. Gets a new rider here. Interesting. Red Danger (4) is a 3YO son of Orb and a horse I have loved all year long. So far, I have gone in on him 3 times in 2022 Got only 1 second to show for my and his efforts. That was last time out at Gulfstream Park. Another late closer and will need better racing luck than he has gotten in recent tries. But luck can change. Right? I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 7-4 over/under the 10-2-6-8-3-9 in two smaller units.

10th: 3-8/1-7/5-6/2-4…G1 Churchill Downs Stakes…This is a 7-furlong sprint and attracts some of the best fast horses in the game today. I give the edge to Jackie’s Warrior (3) — a pure, unadulterated speedster. No strategy here. Just go as fast as you can for as far as you can. Has raced here twice before and has won both. Won the Pat Day Mile here last year. In 3 times at this 7-furlong distance? Has 2 wins and a second. Won the last outing. Looks ready to repeat. Cezanne (8) gets a new trainer after a near-miss in the Oaklawn Park Mile Stakes last time out. Nipped in that one at the wire. Now, Todd Pletcher tightens the girth. Big improvement. In 7 lifetime starts, this one has hit the board 6 times. In only previous race at this distance? Winner. Can win. Aloha West (1) won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint last November in his last start. Came firing at the wire in that one. In 3 starts at this distance, has 2 wins. Sharp work on April 30. Can win off the bench, but the barn has been chilly all year. Lot to ask on this comeback. I bet the 3-8 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key those two numbers over/under the 1-7-5-6 in two smaller units.

11th: 8-10/3-6/4-7-1/5/2-9…G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes…This is a 11/8-mile test over the sod, and I go strong with Adhamo (8). This one made his NA debut in February at the Fair Grounds in a G3 Stakes. Came with a serious late charge to just miss by a head at the wire. Gets a new rider up here, and that could help this one. Trainer has been red hot all year, and has continued that phase here. Has gone 3-1-1 in the first 9 starts to the meet. Look out. Santin (10) ran two really good races at the Fair Grounds to start the year, but didn’t win either. Flashed a bit more speed in the last one, but was 2nd. Came with a late rally in the G3 Fair Grounds Stakes and just missed at the wire. Could find the sweet spot here. Public Sector (3) is another from the barn of Chad Brown and can’t be dismissed. Will make the 2022 debut here, but this trainer and this horse have both done well when starting anew. Could happen here. After all? Five wins in 10 starts over the sod. I bet the 8-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 3-6-4-7-1-5 in two smaller units.

12th: 3/1-8/15-13-19-16/9-10-12-6-5/18-11-7-4/2-14-17-20…G1 Kentucky Derby…The world’s greatest horse race will be held for the 148th time. Amazing race. Amazing place. And, the glamour of the sport and the pageantry will match every long and beautiful stride. I will go Epicenter (3) as the horse to beat and I will key all my exotics in and around this most wonderful 3YO son of Not This Time. I was a skeptic on this guy until the G2 Louisiana Derby. In that event, the world’s best rider was able to get this talented runner to back off the lead a touch and settle into a nice running position in the stalking position. The horse — for the first time — showed that he could be versatile and save his best run for the best time of the race. In the stretch. Since that win, Epicenter has simply gotten better and stronger. His works have been well-time and spotted. His muscles and color have gotten bigger and brighter. He has all the right ingredients to make a KY Derby winner and give both his HOF trainer and HOF person/owner their first Derby wins. Mo Donegal (1) was amazing in the G2 Wood Memorial. Better than what it looked like on TV and paper. And, it looked pretty darn good on and in both of those mediums, as well. This guy can motor, and can make up huge amounts of ground late in the proceedings. He looks to be the best “closer” in the entire field. Class act. Charge It (8) is a 3YO son of Tapit and a late-developer. Did not race as a 2YO, and we all know that the odds are against that happening = Derby winner. But? This one is rare and exciting talent. May have won the Florida Derby if not for an unfortunate incident at the gate when he rammed the device leaving for the start. Tough to ever overcome that scenario. And, he still ran huge. Looks the part and has some nice odds. White Abarrio (15) is beautiful and comes off a win in the G1 Florida Derby — which has become the premier prep for the Derby. Has 4 wins in 5 starts lifetime and the only loss came in a troubled trip at Churchill Downs in the KY Jockey Club last November. That was a much-better-than-looks 3rd. Don’t dismiss. I am not. Simplification (13) ran huge to win the G2 Fountain of Youth. For some odd reason, the rider decided to get in a speed duel in the Florida Derby. Head scratcher. If he just takes back and sits a bit chilly? Could have won that one. And? May win this one. At huge odds. Zozos (19) ran huge in the G2 Louisiana Derby after winning two in a row to start the 2022 season. Another who didn’t run as a 2YO. But if this guy improves at all from the last race? Chance. At huge odds, too. Cyberknife (16) is a stablemate of Zozos, and the popular public choice in the Brad Cox barn. Won the G1 Arkansas Derby in style. Could improve and do the same here. But sometimes he lets his emotions get in the way of a good time. A “use” for me, but I like some others. I bet the 3 across the board and then I key the 3 over/under the 1-8-15-13-19-16 in the exactas. I will box the 1-8-15-13-19-16 in a small exacta, too. I will key the 3 in all three spots in the trifecta with the same numbers, as well. And, I will key the 3 in all four spots in the superfecta with the same numbers, again.

13th: 3-11-(13)/4-9/2-6-7-5/12-(1A)-8…Life Is Hard (3) is 6-1 in the ML and I think has a shot here as a “Upset Special of the Night.” This one has won two in a row at Oaklawn Park, and the only loss was by a neck. Rider travels here for the mount. Interesting. But like the loyalty. Laughing Boy (11) is another longshot possibility. This one has a 1-1-1 mark here in 5 previous tries. Love the race here in the slop to end the 2021 campaign. I bet the 3-11 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. If the #13 draws in, I include and make it a 3-horse box. 

14th: 12-11/9-7-3/(13)-6/7-4-8/1-5…Bourbon Heist (12) looks salty in the nightcap This one nearly won when getting the blinkers for the first time last outing. Returns as a beaten favorite here and the barn wins with .22% of the last 63 to do that. Gets a top rider for this job. Look out here at a square price. Strobe (11) is a first time starter from the barn of Brad Cox and for the Godolphin Stables. Working lights out. Son of Into Mischief might just make a really good one before it’s all said and done. I bet the 12-11 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 12-11 over/under the 9-7-3-13-6 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene