|Total Day Results||11 / 5-5-6|
|2021 Overall 655||655 / 236-242-268|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.03%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.96%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 421-655||64.27%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 30-39||76.92%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 18-39||46.15%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 2 / 2-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 100 / 44-23-7||44.00% Win / 74.00% ITM|
1st: 1-2-5/3-4/6-7…Favorite Sin (1) gets the nod in the lid-lifter to one of the best days of racing in the entire Thoroughbred world. It’s the day of the 147th Kentucky Oaks. And, it will be fun. Let’s get it started with a win in the opener. This one is a 4YO Awesome Again filly who is conditioned by Ian Wilkes, who is off to a promising start to this meet after struggling at KEE in the month of April. This one has hit the board in each of the last four outings and has worked promisingly. Rider has had success on this one’s back. Top choice. Pop a Choc (2) ran a very nice, closing 2nd last time out at Turfway Park. Nearly got the job done late. Gets a new rider here, and the trainer wins at an .18% clip when moving from the AW to the dirt. Chance. Bayshore Foxes (5) won on debut over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park. Moves up to face winners for the first time, and the barn wins with .17% of those kind. Look at the odds board early and often. These connections bet — and a lot — when they think they have a big shot. And, this one gets a red hot rider to boot. Big shot. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 2-3-4-6-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 1-6-3/7/2-9-4-5-8…Back to the rail for this try, too, and we saddle up with Love in the Air (1). This 3YO Constitution filly has been very consistent in the first 5 starts. Has yet to taste victory, but has 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Ran 3rd last time out, but was steadied in that one on multiple occasions. Gets to the dirt here, and the barn wins with .13% when making this surface switch. Rider was up for the last two, and should know this one by now. Daughter of a Stakes winner, who has a winner from two starters. Seaside Retreat (6) gets the saddle here from HOF trainer, who wins with .22% of those getting the blinkers for the first time. Shades go on here, and this one may keep going this time. Look for a big effort here. Kizzy B (3) is a 4YO Ghostzapper filly who nearly won last time out at KEE, when going a mile. In 9 starts so far, this one has 5 seconds and a third. Has speed. Could be very dangerous. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-6 over/under the 3-7 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-6-5/4-2/3/9-8-1A-1…Amalfi Princess (7) drops back into the allowance ranks after running a very nice 3rd last time out in the 7-furlong, G3 Beaumont Stakes last time out. Stalked the pace that day and just couldn’t finish the deal against the likes of those kind. Could find the company a lot more to her liking here. Guana Cay (6) comes from the barn of Wesley Ward, who is off to another blazing start at this meet. Just won the Trainer’s Title at the KEE April Meet. This one gets the Lasix for the first time, and the barn wins with .17% of those. Look for a big effort here. Zainalarab (5) won the last time out to break the maiden on debut. But that was back in September. Gets the Lasix for the first time, and wins with .24% of those kind. Has speed will travel. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-6 over/under the 5-4-2-3 in two smaller units.
4th: 10-2/3-4-7/1-8-6/5-9…Another Woman (10) moves up to face winners for the first time after breaking the MSW last time out at Gulfstream Park. Was impressive in both the first two starts. Look who beat her in the debut. Pass the Champagne. She will race later on this card in the G1 KY Oaks, and I think she has a shot, too. Joel Rosario takes the mount here. Jump on board. American West (2) makes the 2021 debut in this spot, after running 2nd to Malathaat in the Tempted Stakes at Aqueduct last November. Malathaat is the expected favorite in this afternoon’s G1 KY Oaks. Legit runner. This one was beaten 73/4 that day, but still was 2nd. I bet the 10-2 across the board and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 10-2 over/under the 3-4-7-1-8-6 in two smaller units.
5th: 1-4/5-10/7-8/3-9/6…This is a turf event scheduled to be contested at the 11/8-mile distance. I look to the rail, once again, for my top selection. Temple (1) has run in three straight Graded Stakes events in a row. Held his own in them, too. Now makes his way back into the allowance company. Should appreciate the drop in class. Has a record of 5-6-5 in 24 tries over the turf. One to beat. Ever Dangerous (4) has 3 wins, a second and a third in 8 career starts — all over the sod. This one was 3rd last time out in the G3 Appleton Stakes. Adds a pace presence and that could assist the top pick, too. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 5-10-7-8-3-9. More with the 5-10. Less with the 7-8. Even less with the rest.
6th: 6/5-4/2-3-1…G2 Alysheba Stakes…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with the grand Maxfield (6). This 4YO has managed to find the winner’s circle in 5 of the first 6 starts. Lost the last time out when shipped West for the 11/4-mile San Antonio Handicap. Was not up for that trip. Or that distance. But this one comes home here and back to a distance where he is a perfect 4-for-4. Look out. Massive performance forthcoming. I bet the 6 to win/place and then key the 6 over/under the “all button.” I will also key the 6 over (only) the 5-4-2-3-1.
7th: 6/2-7/1-4/3-5…G2 Edgewood Stakes…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Aunt Pearl (6). This one may be a bit more vulnerable than the previous race, but only because she has not had a start this year or since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at KEE. Has raced three times for trainer Brad Cox. Won them all. Has prepped well for the return and there is nobody better at getting them ready off the bench that this barn operation. It wins with .22% when away from the races this long. Gets the barn’s go-to rider, as well. Jockey has won with .30% of the last 54 starts for this trainer. I bet the 6 to win/place and then key the 6 over/under the rest of the numbers listed. More with the 2-7. Less with 1-4. Even less with 3-5.
8th: 2-3/7-5/6/1-4…G1 La Troienne Stakes…Shedaresthedevil (2) was a superstar on the last KY Oaks Day. She rolled to a nice win in the G1 KY Oaks at odds of over 15-to-1. She won’t be close to those odds here, but she may be just as good and just as tough to beat. This one tuned up with the 2021 debut win on March 13 in the G2 Azeri Stakes at Oaklawn Park. This one is speed. Undeniable. Gate opens. This one goes. At this distance? 4 wins; a second and a third in 6 starts. My pick. Dunbar Road (3) is a very class 5YO mare by Quality Road. Has won nearly $1.2 million. Not a bad return for a $350,000 initial investment. G1 Stakes winner here and she normally runs well off the bench, too. Won the first start in 2020. May do the same in 2021. I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exactas. Sternly. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 7-5-6-1-4 in two smaller units.
9th: 8-10/11-5-6-9/3/7-4/2-1-12…G2 Eight Belles Stakes…Kalypso (8) has taken a lot of heat in the last two, when she was stretched out and over-bet. This speedster could not finish the deal in either the G3 Las Virgenes Stakes or the G3 Santa Ysabel. But? There is a big “but” here. This one cuts back to the one-turn, 7-furlong distance here. In only previous race at this distance, she has a win. Will love this spot and I like the outside post coming out of the chute, too. Get on board at these odds of 5-1. Are you kidding me. I’m in. Dayoutoftheoffice (10) is the winner of the G1 Frizette Stakes last year at Belmont Park and was 2nd to Vequist in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at KEE last November. She will be making the first start of the year and this distance may be exactly what this daughter of Into Mischief wants. Has trained lights out. But must have her running shoes on to beat our top pick. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-10 in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 11-5-6-9-3 in two smaller units.
10th: 9-8-5/3-11-10/1…G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes…This is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod, and I will go to the outside and saddle up with my top two picks — led by Diamond Oops (9). This 6YO gelding has raced 4 times over the sod. Has a win; a second; and a third on the resume. I can toss the last race over the dirt, and the race before was the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint — which was won by the great Whitmore. Look for huge improvement with the return to the grass. Here? Has a win in only previous try. Fast Boat (8) has raced here 3 times previously and has 2 wins. In 14 tries at this distance, this one has gone 5-1-2. This one comes with a late run and gets a huge rider switch. Look for this one to roll late. Just Might (5) just might upset this field. This 5YO gelding has never won here in 6 previous starts, but has the talent to run fast. That makes him a threat. I bet the 9-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 9-8 over/under the 5-3-11-10-1 in two smaller units.
11th: 10/5-6-4-3-12/1-14/2-9-8/11-3…G1 Kentucky Oaks…I will go with my next “Key Play of the Day” — Malathaat (10). This 3YO daughter of Curlin has never lost in four starts, to date. Three of those in Stakes company. Two of those in Graded Stakes company. One of those in G1 Stakes company. Has answered every call. Has answered every question. Has the talent to dominate here. Again. Pass The Champagne (5) is 15-1 odds and Crazy Beautiful (4) is also 15-1 odds. I use both of those over/under in the exotics here, too. I bet the 10 to win/place/show. I will key the 10 over/under the 5-6-4-3-12-1-14 in two exactas. I will also use a little cash to go across the board with the 5-4. In the Oaks-Derby doubles? I will use the 10 with “all button” in one. I will use the 10-5-6-4-3-12-1-14 with Essential Quality and Highly Motivated in the Derby.
12th: 8-(14)/12-10-(13)/4-6/9-11-2/(15)-1…The next-to-final race of the day is a 1-mile turf event and I will go with More Than Unusual (8). This 4YO daughter of More Than Ready is coming off a nice 4th last time out over a “good” sod course. Go back to the firm? Win. Has 2 wins and 3 thirds in 7 grass starts. Look for more here. I bet the 8-14 across the board (if the 14 draws in from the AE). I will key those 2 (or 1) over/under the 12-10-13-4-6-9-11-2 in two exactas.
13th: 11-10/3-12-2/9-6-1/4-5/8-7/13…If you are still awake; still up; still have some cash left? I go all in here with my top two picks — led by Callen’s Charisma (11). This one ran very well last time out for the barn of Bill Mott, who wins with .16% when making the second start. Training lights out here. Lights. Out. My solid pick. Played Hard (10) is another from the Rigney Stable. Look for the odds board. If this one is “live” then she will be active in the betting. Has speed and has a very sharp work for this one, too. Look out here. I bet the 11-10 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 11-10 over/under the 3-12-2-9-6-1 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene