Updated Stats Added: McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on KY Oaks Day — Friday, May 6 / Let’s Go “Champ!”

Here’s our looks for Churchill Downs’ races on Friday, May 6 — KY Oaks Day:

1st: 8/6-4/1-3-7/2-5…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the very first race of the first of the two giant days in the sport of Thoroughbred racing — KY Oaks Day, here we are. I will launch the day with Fannie and Freddie (8). This 3YO daughter of Malibu Moon comes in off three very impressive runs in a row. Has never raced her before, but in 3 times at this distance this one has a win and two 2nds. Last two outs have been runner-up finishes, but could have easily won either or both. The “Show” horse in the last out came right back to win the next time, too. I’m in. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under the 6-4-1-3-7-2-5. More with the 6-4 than the rest.

2nd: 11/10-8/12-5/3-4/1-2…Two races and two “Key Plays of the Day.” I will saddle up with Inventing (11) in this spot, along with the dangerous combo of trainer Todd Pletcher and rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. They have combined to win .25% of the last 24 mounts together. This 3YO filly nearly won on debut at Gulfstream Park on April 2. Has been working with KY Oaks contender Nest since then and she has been holding her own. Look for this one to be a real handful here. I’m all in. I bet the 11 across the board and then key the 11 over/under the 10-8-12-5-3-4 in the exactas. More with the 10-8. A little less with the 12-5. Lesser with the rest.

3rd: 1A-7-1/8-3/6/4-2…The entry could be very salty in this spot, and the first grass race of the day. This one will be contested at the 11/8-mile distance over the sod, and the slight edge goes to Arabian Prince (1A). This one has run very well in the last three outings, and the 4YO colt has been a different horse since getting the blinkers three starts ago. New rider is top class. In 5 starts over the sod? Has not won. Yet. But has 2 2nds and a 3rd on the resume. Could pop here. Grael (7) didn’t fire over the AW surface last time out, but was bumped rather significantly in that affair. Gets back to the sod here and in 3 previous tries over the grass, this one has a win and two 3rds on the resume. Gets a red hot rider, who is tearing it up here. Look out. Q F Seventy Five has a quarter horse name, but a real horse game. Won the last time out and now the duo of Joel Rosario and trainer Christophe Clement reunite. This combo has gone .23% win in the last 13 tries together. I bet the entry on top and across the board. I will box the entry with the 7. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the entry-7 over (only) the 8-3-6-4-2 in a smaller unit.

4th: 7/3-8/5/9-10/2-4-1/6…The third “Key Play of the Day” in the first four races, and I will ante up with the grand Juju’s Map (7) here. The last time out, this gal ran 2nd to Echo Zulu in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies event at Del Mar. Before that, this lady won the G1 Alcibiades in style. Will make the 2022 debut here and should overwhelm this allowance field. Gets Lasix for the first time. Won’t get many odds here, but I don’t try to bet. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over (only) the 3-8-5-9-10-2 in the exactas. 

5th: 8-1/6/9-4-7/5/2-3…G3 Modesty Stakes…This is a 11/8-mile event over the grass for the fillies and mares, and I will go with a lot of Chad Brown here. The great turf trainer will send Bleecker Street (8) to the mound here. This 4YO daughter of Quality Road is a perfect 5-for-5 in the career and she should take the next step forward here. She closes with a sense of urgency and style. Tough as nails. New rider gets up for the first time. Hmmm. Fluffy Socks (1) is another from the Brown barn. It’s a white barn, but the Chad Brown barn. This gal has raced over the sod 11 times. Has a 4-4-1 record. Race at KEE on April 14 to open the year was dynamite. Should have won that one. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the saddle job here. Look out. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

6th: 2-6/1-4/5/3/7…G1 La Troienne Stakes…Shedaresthedevil (2), a Kentucky Oaks winner herself, and a filly who is a perfect 5-for-5 in her races at Churchill Downs, stamps the class on this G1 event. She has gone 7-1-3 in 11 races at this distance. Comes in off a near-miss 3rd in the G2 Azeri Stakes to start the new year. Looks ready to go. Love her. Pauline’s Pearl (6) nipped our top pick for 2nd in the Azeri. This gal has not been worse than 2nd in the last 5 Stakes. In 9 races at this distance? Ha a 4-3-2 mark. Contender. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-6 solidly in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 6-1-4-5-3-7 in two smaller units.

7th: 5/1-6/7-2/8/4/3…G2 Alysheba Stakes…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with the grand Olympiad (5). This 4YO son of Speightstown has won three in a row and 4 of the last 5 outings. Has climbed the hill into the Graded Stakes company and not missed a beat. Has speed to stay close. Has stamina to finish what he starts. Very good right now. Look out. I bet the 5 across the board and then key the 5 over/under the 1-6-7-2-8 in the exactas. More with the 1-6 than the rest.

8th: 5-8/3/2-7/4-9/1/6-10…G2 Edgewood Stakes…This is a 11/16-mile turf event for the 3YO fillies and I will give the edge to Dolce Del (5), another one trained by Chad Brown. This gal just missed in the G2 Appalachian Stakes at KEE last time out. And, that was after breaking out at the start of that one in an awkward beginning. Won the Florida Oaks before that in her NA debut. Should rebound with authority here. I like. A lot. Spicer (8) ran just a head behind our top pick in the Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay on March 12. Been off since then for — guess who? Brown will employ both of the Ortiz brothers. One could win. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 3 in two smaller units.

9th: 8-4-3/6/9-5/2/1-10-7…G2 Eight Belles Stakes…This is a 7-furlong event named after the grand filly who perished after running so brilliantly in the KY Derby. I will give the top number to Matareya (8). This 3YO daughter of Pioneerof the Nile is trained by one of the best in the game these days and this gal comes in off two impressive wins in a row. Won the G3 Beaumont by a whopping 81/2 lengths. Light bulb has clicked here. If she improves at all? If she can improve at all? This one could be the next great filly in this guy’s barn, and the has had a bunch of them. Ain’t Easy (4) could rebound and run better with a serious cut-back in distance here. Has speed and the 7 furlongs may be just what the doctor and trainer ordered. Gets a red-hot rider up for the first time and he knows these grounds better than most. Love the price on this one, too. My first “Upset Special of the Day.” I will add a bit of play on Marissa’s Lady (3) to this mix. Has won 5 of 6 lifetime and the only setback was a 2nd in a Stakes at Turfway Park two starts ago. Has tremendous speed and they will have to catch her, if they can. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-4 over/under the 3-6-9-5-2 in two smaller versions.

10th: 10/2-3-8/1-6-11/4-9/5-7/12-13…G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes…This is a 5.5-furlong speciality event for the older guys and I will go with yet another “Key Play of the Day” with Arrest Me Red (10). After all, you have to like the #10 in the 10th race, right? This time, I do. This 4YO son of Pioneerof the Nile comes in off a 3rd as a beaten favorite in the Silks Run Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 19. In 3 races at this distance, this one has 2 wins and a 3rd. This one normally likes the lead. Found himself off the pace last time out. Still race a solid race. A bit of a “Z” pattern there. I like that. I bet the 10 across the board and then key the 10 over/under the 2-3-8-1-6-11-4-9 in the exactas. More with the 2-3-8 than the rest. 

11th: 7-10-1/4/3/14-13-2-6/11/5-8/9-12…Echo Zulu (7) is the 2YO Champ and is undefeated after 5 career starts. But the track handicapper made her the 3rd candidate in the KY Oaks? Wait a second. Wait a darn second. Not a single horse came close to this filly last year. She won 4 times by a total of 22 lengths. The closest one came was in the G1 Spinaway, where she won by 4 lengths. Started the year with a nose-win in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks. OK. Maybe didn’t finish that 11/16-mile event impressively. But she was probably about 75 to 80% back to normal in that 2022 debut and this cat makes her the 3rd choice for the KY Oaks? Seriously? Since the FG Oaks, Echo Zulu has come back to work perfectly and impressively, too. Look at the work on April 24. Look at the work on April 17. I’ll take “The Champ.” Kathleen O. (10) comes in undefeated after 4 races for HOF trainer Shug McGaughey. Won the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks in the last out, and that race used to be named the Bonnie Miss. Class here. No doubt. Real threat. But? Never has even run in a G1 Stakes yet. Secret Oath (1) ran up against the colts in the G1 Arkansas Derby last time out. Ran huge, too, despite a horrendous route by a rider who has now been replaced. Big. Strong. And, will close here. No doubt this one can make the grade here. Nest (4) is the ML favorite, and this is no knock on her. This may be the deepest and best field for the KY Oaks in years & years. And, this daughter of Curlin comes into this one off a near 9-length win in the G1 Ashland Stakes at KEE on April 8. Impressive. Outstanding. But? Who has this filly beaten, to date, that merits a leap frog over “The Champ” in this spot? I go with the proven commodity. I go with “The Champ.” I bet the 7 across the board and then key the 7 over/under the 10-1-4-3 in the bigger exactas. I will key the 7 over/under the “all button,” as well. I double down with another win bet on the 7, too. And, after chatting with my great friend, Rob Murphy, I am going to throw the #8 in on my exactas, as well. How’s that for coverage? All in, for me.

12th: 9-4-5/2-11-1-(1A)/3/10-12/7-8…The first race after the Oaks is a 6.5 furlong allowance sprint for the 3YO fillies and I give the edge to Wish You Well (9) in what may be one of the most wide open races on the card. this 3YO daughter of American Freedom has raced only once and that was a winner last out at Gulfstream Park for trainer George Weaver. Look who this one defeated that day. Inventing. The training partner for Nest, who is entered earlier on the card. Take a look and see how Inventing runs. If she wins? Signals are on go here. Society (4) has not been out this year, but is training lights out for Team Asmussen. Worth a serious look at solid odds. Angitude (5) has not raced since winning here by nearly 8 lengths in only start to date. That was last November, though. Both of the latter duo gets Lasix for the first time. Both can run. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 4-5-2-11-1-3 in two smaller units.

13th: 10-8-12/(14)-3-6-7/9/5…The last race on Oaks’ Day and it is a MSW event for the 3YO fillies & up. I ante up with Merci Road (10). This 4YO gal comes from a red-hot barn operation and gets a rider who has won with .29% of the last 14 tries for this trainer. Nearly won the initial start of the year and should be fitter here. Look out. Colorful Mischief (8) is a first time starter for Todd Pletcher, who wins with .20% of those kind in the MSW ranks. Works are spot on. Gets a top rider, of course. Should consider. Milan’s Girl (12) goes for trainer Brad Cox, who is getting some horses for the Albaugh Family now. Wow. this one is training lights out, too, and the daughter of Curlin looks well spotted here. Chance. I bet the 10-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-6-7 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene