Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on Opening Night — Saturday, April 30

Here’s our looks for Churchill Downs’ opening night this Saturday:

1st: 5-3-2/1/4/6…Speed Boat (5) gets the edge in the ole’ lid-lifter to the 2022 Spring/Summer Meet. This 4YO son of Speightster comes in off a nice 3rd against allowance company at Hawthorne on April 16th. That was the first race for the new connections that took over after the claim at Santa Anita on March 18. This barn wins with a whopping .57% on the 2nd start after a purchase and with .38% when going from a sprint to a route and then back to a sprint. Looks salty here to me. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units.

2nd: 2-7-1/8/6/3-5/4…My Man Flintstone (2) drops from the $25,000 price tag all the way to the $8,000 level here, and this barn wins with a whopping .56% when dropping this much at one time. Has not raced since last October when he was claimed, but that was voided. Has been off since. Working great for this return, though, and the barn knows where to spot them. Rider has won with .14% in the last 28 mounts for this barn. Soul Streit (7) was claimed last time out and now drops to half that price tag. Interesting. May be worth a pluck here, for this Indiana-bred. Has won over $211,000 in the career and this 7YO certainly fits here, if good to go. Deano (1) was claimed last time out and the barn wins with a whopping .26% when making the first start for the new barn operator. Like this rider choice and this one could be off and galloping from the inside post. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller units.

3rd: 1/3-6-4/2…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes here with Frills (1). This 6YO Candy Ride mare has won 3 in a row and looks like she could make it a quartet here. Has raced over this track twice before with a win and a second. Has hit the board in 15 of 23 lifetime tries. Never won at this distance in 5 shots, though. HMMM. I bet the 1 across the board and then key the 1 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 3-6-4.

4th: 2-1A-4/(9)-(8)/5-7/3-6…Stitched (2) gets the nod here for me. This 3YO colt has won 2 of 3 over the turf so far and has the breeding to do well here. Has speed galore and gets a brainy rider up. Look out. Gingrich (1A) gets Lasix for the first time and the barn wins with .23% of the last 48 to get treated. That could help this one immensely. Take note. Evan Sing (4) is a perfect 1-for-1 and was impressive in the career debut at the Fair Grounds on March 17. May bid these adieu. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. If this comes off the turf, though, I go to the 9-8 across the board. It it stays on the turf, I key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-7 in two smaller units.

5th: 5-1/2/4-6/3…Altered Shot (5) gets the nod here. This 4YO filly has made only one start since last August. That was a so-so effort at the Fair Grounds. But the barn wins with .12% when making the 2nd start off the layup and with .10% when dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. Gets a top rider who had a super meet at KEE this spring. Has a 1-1-3 mark in 5 previous runs here. All them against better. Old Pho (1) is another who will drop into the claiming ranks for the first time. This barn wins with a .19% rate when it does that. Gets the blinkers for the first time, too, and the trainer wins with .15% with this equipment change. Won two starts back. Should fit nicely here from the rail. Has speed to burn early. I bet the 5-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 5-1 over/under the 2-4-6 in two smaller units. More with the 2.

6th: 4-6/5-3/7/2…Five Prizes (4) goes for the barn of Todd Pletcher and this gal looks poised for a break-out session. Love the race two back and just got caught against a good one in the last. Barn wins with .27% when coming back as a beaten favorite. Gets a top rider up. Look out here. Miss Yearwood (6) closed like crazy to be 2nd last time out at KEE at odds of 38-to-1. Is she that much better? Or was that a fluke? Tough question. I bet the 4 to win/place/show. Big time. I key the 4 over/under the 6-5-3-7-2 in the exactas. More with the 6-5-3 than the others.

7th: 5-3-10/4-7/9/6-8/2-11…Bandimere (5) will make the first start for the new barn operation here and it will add the blinkers, too. First time blinkers for this barn = a .22% win rate. Has been training well and should fit nicely with this drop in class. One to beat, for me. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-7 in two smaller units, too.

8th: 10/(14)/9-12/2-4-8/6/1-3-5…The next “Key Play of the Night” comes here with Bay Storm (10), who should be the PT favorite for the barn of Jonathan Thomas. This 4YO loves the grass and has gone 2-2-1 in 6 starts over the sod. At this specialty sprint distance? Has a 2nd in two previous tries. Ran well last time out, but needs to come with her best effort here. Has a class edge and has worked well since the last race, too. I bet the 10 across the board and then key the 10 over/under the 14-9-12-2-4-8-6 in the exactas. More with the 14-9-12 than the rest.

9th: 5-3/4-2/1…Roxelana Stakes…Carribean Caper (5) is a daughter of Speightstown, whom I love as a sire. Has never made a race, yet, where she has not also visited the winner’s circle afterwards. and, that has been 5 races long, now. Will make the 2022 debut here. Works are spot on. She is a special one, to be sure. May be sitting on a big year. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-3 in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will also key the 5 over (only) the 3-4-2-1 in some more action. 

10th: 1-4/5-6/(15)-2-9/7-11-12-(13)/3-8-10…The finale on opening night is a 7-furlong sprint at the MCL level of $10,000. Tough race, but I go to the rail and line up with Vasilevskiy (1). Good luck to Travis Stone on this pronunciation. This one drops considerably in the class department and will move from the sod to the dirt. But if he can make that transition, the opening race gives a bettor hope here. Gets a top rider and will need to move along early to avoid being trapped at the gap. Knightly Mischief (4) gets Lasix for the first time and that should help this one. Drops big time here, as well. That combo could assist the effort. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 5-6-15-2-9-7 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene