|Total Day Results||8 / 4-2-3|
|2022 Overall — 1075||1075 / 376-396-501|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.98%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.47%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 694-1075||64.56%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 237–354||66.95%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 124-353||35.13%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 73/30-18-7||41.10% Win / 75.34% ITM|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 148-226||65.49%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 89-226||39.38%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 40/15-5-4||37.50% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 212/ 86-45-19||40.57% Win / 70.75% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 10/1-1-1||10.00% Win / 30.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 28/5-2-3||17.86% Win / 35.71% ITM|
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 3/2-0-0||66.67% Win / 66.67% ITM|
(Stats to be updated after Friday’s card)
Here’s our looks for the fantastic card scheduled for “Stephen Foster Stakes Day” at Churchill Downs:
1st: 5-1-9/4-2-7/6-10/3-11…Boxster (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval” in Louisville today. The 2YO son of West Coast will be making his 2nd career start after running an impressive 2nd here on June 2. Never could get past the impressive winner that day, but was much better than any other horse in the race. The barn is having a solid meet and so is the veteran rider, who set a milestone here earlier this meet. Hill of Tara (1) could be the upsetter in this one. The 2YO son of Sharp Aztreca should have plenty of speed and flashed a bit of that in the last outing. May improve off that performance. Cigarette Boat (9) ran well in the debut, but disappointed as the PT favorite in the last. Had a rather difficult trip in that one and could show up bigger here with the addition of blinkers for the first time. Look at this one. I bet the 9 across the board — take note. I will box the 5-1-9 in the exactas. I will key the 5-9 over/under the 1-4-2-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 1-4-5/7-6/3-8/2…Necker Island (1) has been a very versatile sort throughout a very nice racing career and may be able to add another element here in this 5.5-furlong sprint over the main dirt track. Has never gone this short before, but the move in the last against Bango was impressive. Rider will have to ask a bit earlier, but could be salty at the wire. Special Reserve (4) is definitely the one to beat. This 6YO gelding ran a very impressive 4th in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint in the last outing, but that was last November. May need one off the vacation against good ones here, too. Gets the meet’s top rider up. If ready? Look out. Long Weekend (5) is very capable and has a win in two previous tries here. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 5-7-6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 2-4-11/5-10/1-3/6-7-8…Easy Big Boy (2) has run a couple of times and gets the experience edge in this 2YO event. The son of Cloud Computing may be searching for more ground and this stretch out to 6 furlongs may help in that regard. Gets the meet’s top rider and he has won with .32% of the last 31 saddle jobs for this barn. Mabuhay (4) goes for KY Derby winning trainer Eric Reed and he ran well in the opener. Had huge, huge traffic issues in the last one and can’t be faulted for that trip. Could be closer with a better route. Macho Villa (11) could improve in the 2nd trip out for a barn known far and wide for not rushing the 2YOs. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-10 in two smaller units.
4th: 3-4-11/5-8-10-12/9-1/6…Dreamalot (3) gets Lasix for the first time and will race for the first time in 2022, as well. This daughter of Ghostzapper is a homebred for Goldolphin Stables and ran up against the likes of Matareya in the career debut last year. Get’s the meet’s top rider up this time around. Look out. My first “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 4-11-5-8-10-12-9-1 in two smaller units.
5th: 9-8-6/7-11/5-4-2…Sacred Samurai (9) spit the bit after leading half way through the last outing. Early fractions were not sustainable. New rider and the best in this land will get the job here. Jockey has won with an amazing .46% of the last 24 for this trainer. Should appreciate the return to the sprint distance, too. Barn wins with .20% when going route to sprint. My next “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 8-6-7-11 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-2/1/3-6-7…Tepin Stakes…Wicked Halo (4) comes into this one off an impressive win in a Stakes event here on June 12. Looked invincible that day and the 3rd in the G2 Eight Belles Stakes in the race before looks better and better each day, considering the competition. This one has stalking speed or can come from off the pace. Gets the meet’s top rider up again and they may be invincible in this one, too. Look out. My third “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 4 across the board and then pound the 4-2 exacta box. I will key the 4 over/under the 2-1 in two smaller units, again.
7th: 8-9/4-10-7-6/5-11/1-3…American Derby…Since Churchill Downs is not using the new turf course any more this meet, this one will be tried over the main track and at the distance of 11/16-miles. I line up with Kuchar (8), who comes in off three impressive runs in a row. Will not be able to race with Lasix here, though, and that may be an issue. Has been a different horse with the anti-bleeder. The race two back in the Oaklawn Stakes was very impressive, considering that Home Brew edge him by less than 2. Rattle N Roll (9) was on the Triple Crown trail ever since he was a 2YO and won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at KEE in impressive fashion. Has not won this year, though, and looks like he could be another venerable favorite in here, although this field may be more to his liking. If a rebound is coming, this may be the spot. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-9 in the exactas. I will key the 8-9 over/under the 4-10-7-6 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-4/1-2/3…G2 Fleur de Lis Stakes…Shedaresthedevil (5) won 4 of 6 last year and has a 2nd and a 3rd in two starts this year. Although winning the KY OAKS in her 3YO year, she has not won again over this track. Has faced some of the best fillies and mares in the game over the past and she could be a real force with the return of her favorite rider to the saddle. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-4 in the exactas. I will key the 5 over (only) the 4-1-2-3 in a smaller unit.
9th: 4-5/6/1-9/8/2-3-7…Kelly’s Landing Stakes…Aloha West (4) gets the nod here and the 5YO son of Hard Spun should be a force with a return to sprint distance and a chance to avoid the G1 candidates that he has faced in the last 3 outings. Gets a rider who was a perfect 2-for-2 on him last year at Saratoga, too. Can’t hurt. Love the looks of this one here. And…as such…becomes the next “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-5 in the exactas. I will key the 4 over/under the 5-6-1-9-8 in two smaller units.
10th: 6/3/1-7-5/2/4…G2 Stephen Foster Stakes…This is a spectacular event and deserves G1 status, to be sure. The 2021 Kentucky Derby winner returns to the track where he calls home. He was sitting on “go” after winning the G3 Louisiana Stakes in his 2022 debut before the trip to Saudi Arabia turned into a debacle, of sorts. Has trained well for this one and should be a tough out at a distance that he loves, too. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over (only) the 3-1-7-5-2 in the exactas. More with the 3 than the rest.
11th: 11-8/7-6/1-5/4/2/3-9…Millefeuille (11) has run well in the last two, but let’s be honest here. Both of those were in the slop and in races coming off the turf. Faced a group that probably didn’t prefer the main track. Now, this 4YO daughter of Curlin will face true dirt runners. Will be interesting to see if her form holds up under this test. Gets one of the best riders in the world, who won on her here on May 3. Altered Shot (8) could spring the upset here, though. This gal has won 3 in a row and has the speed to be a tough out. Look out here. I bet the 8 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 11-8 in the exactas. I will key the 8 over/under the 11-7-6-1-5-4 in two smaller units.
12: 10-2/1/4-6-9-11/3-5-7-8-12…Alejandro (10) gets the edge in the day’s finale. This 4YO son of Curlin has hit the board in 8 in a row and 9 out of the last 10. Always around at wire time. In 11 lifetime runs, though, only has 1 win with 6 seconds and 2 thirds. May be an “underneath” play for me? You? Greatheart (2) is got the talent to win this one outright. Impressive win to break the MSW two starts back. Gets a new rider up here and I will give them a shot. I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 10-2 in the exactas. I will key the 10-2 over/under the 1-4-6-9-11 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene