|Day Results||9 / 6-5-1|
|2020 Overall 651||651 / 230-211-258|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.33%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.79%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –413-651||63.44%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Spring-Summer: 97-159||61.01%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Spring-Summer: 54-159||33.96%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Spring-Summer:13-7-2-3||53.85% Win / 92.31% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 85-29-19-13||34.12% Win / 71.76% ITM|
The day we have been waiting for all meet long.
Short prices, granted, but out of the 9 races, we did land on 6 winners.
We had short-priced exactas that returned $3.40, $8.00, $13.10, $9.10, $7.50, $20.60 and $19.80.
Our big “horse” of the day ran third. I really thought Earner had a chance to put this field away and move onto the Stakes level next out. Don’t know now what I think. Had the race his way and should have been able to kick home with the fractions carved out. Hmmm.
But, all in all, a good numbers day.
Here’s looking at Saturday’s card and hoping that we can parlay the wins into more $:
1st: 3-8-4/1/9-7-5-6…Chicks for Free (3) is a 2YO gelded (?) son of Constitution that comes from the barn of Wesley Ward — the guru of the “Baby Races.” Ward’s winning with .21% overall here, but can’t seem to lose a 2YO race at GP over the past few weeks. This one comes from a sire who produces .24% winners on debut. Dam has a winner from 1 starter. And, a nice work at KEE on June 6, to boot. Rider has won with .29% of the last 14 mounts for this barn. Look out. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller versions, and then key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two more smaller units.
2nd: 9-6-5/8-3-1/2-7…Fun Paddy (9) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This 4YO daughter of Paddy O’Prado comes in off a 5th against much, much tougher. Barn hits with .23% when dropping this much and I like this rider choice here. In 8 starts over this track, this one has a 1-1-2 mark and should fit with these. Grats Road (6) drops in class for this one, too. In 11 starts here, she has a 3-1-2 mark. Love the fact that a world-class rider sticks for the mount. One to beat, IMO. Rahway (5) used to be very nice. She drops to an all-time low. If she can have some fun against this level? May be time to head to the breeding shed. Somewhere. I bet the 9-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 9-6 over/under the 5-8-3-1-2-7 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-2-8/5-6-3…French Rose (7) drops down a couple of notches here and the barn hits with .20% of those getting this kind of class relief in one swoop. The last race wasn’t that bad, either, against much tougher. Off slow in that one and still managed third. Look for better with the rider switch here. Blunt Force (2) gets class relief, as well, and the barn hits with .22% of those that are returning from this kind of a layup. Like the work at KEE on May 31. Rider has won with .20% of the last 20 rides for this outfit. Has a win and a third in 3 races at this distance, too. Heaven Escape 98) gets a drop to a career low level and won just two races back over the poly at Turfway Park. Rider choice is interesting. Right? I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 7-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
4th: 10-5-11/9/2-8-(14)/1-(16)-3/7-12…The first turf race of the day and I go to the outside to saddle up with Sail on Ellen (10). This 3Yo daughter of American Pharoah has run two good ones so far. Has experience over the grass and the specialty distance, too. Barn hits with .21% of those returning as a beaten favorite, and, like on Friday, this trainer does a great job with her stock. Fantastic horse lady and I am rooting here. Millennium Force (5) ran 2nd in a huge effort on debut at the Fair Grounds in March. Returned with a subpar effort on the dirt at Oaklawn. The return to grass today should help and the dam of this one was a Stakes winner who has thrown a turf winner already. Big shot for a top barn operation, which is warming up in a hurry. Healthful (11) will make the first start for trainer Ben Colebrook. This one is working lights out, too. Gets a top rider to take the reins. If she can break well and save some ground from the outside, she could be a live long shot. I bet the 10-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10-5 over/under the 11-9-2-8-14 in two smaller units.
5th: 4-5-3/1-2…This is a small field, but is definitely a Stakes-caliber group. I go with a bit of a long shot in this one in Art Collector (4). This son of Bernardini ran a super nice race last time out when switching to the barn and under the tutelage of Thomas Drury. I love this barn operation, too, and the way the trainer conducts his business. Horses always look good and run well, on most occasions, as well. Rooting here for a great guy. May need to step it up a bit, but I think we have NOT seen the best of this 3YO yet. Finnick the Fierce (5) ran third to Nadal in the G1 Arkansas Derby last time out. Ran 2nd to Silver Prospector in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club here last Fall. Has the class edge, but I think this one may turn out to be a runner-up type. Could fit that bill today. Shared Sense (3) may run a huge one today, too. Has a win and a second here in two starts and was second behind Blackberry Wine here last November. Has some legit credentials, too. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3. I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 6-8/2-4/3-1-5…Twelfth Labour (6) has raced here 7 times before and has a resume of 2-1-1. Returns home today where he won a real nice one last June. The works here in May are encouraging. Could help that he returns to sprinting, too. Barn hits with .17% of those cutting back from a route to a sprint. Pyron (8) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and the barn hits with .21% of those. Gets back to the dirt, too, and both wins came over that surface choice. Look for some more out of this one here. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 6-8 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
7th: 9-4-8/1-7-5/6-2-3…Rare Form (9) drops into the claiming ranks here, and I would absolutely love to hammer this one — if not for one other speed horse in the race. If this 5YO son of The Factor can avoid a speed duel? Look out. Love this rider switch. Love the works coming in to the meet. Love the drop down. Love this one today. Popular Kid (4) drops in class, too. In 11 starts at the distance, this one has 5 wins and 2 seconds. Love this rider choice and this one could be stalk-and-pounce mode at running time. Eisenstaedt (8) has a win in two tries here. Could be another with a shot now that the meet’s leading rider takes the saddle job. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units, as well.
8th: 11-1-5/10/6-7-2-9/(13)-3-12-4…Queen of Shades (11) will make the first career start for the new barn operation after being moved from the barn of the beleaguered Jason Servis. We shall see how this one does under the new tutelage and outside the allegations. I think she has a big chance here at a nice price and is my second Upset Special of the Day at the 6-1 ML price. Speed ball will carry them a long way today. Dixieincandyland (1) gets the rail and that is not the ideal spot for this one, who must carve out a path with her late run. Love the way she finishes and she has a 2-2-1 record in 6 tries at this special sprint distance. Rail bothers me. It does. Must have room. Hidden Facts (5) is a stalker and should get a perfect trip with the best lawn jockey in the entire world sitting on her back. Look for this one to be very tough at the wire. I bet the 11-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 11-5 over/under the 1-10-6-7-2-9 in two smaller units.
9th: 1/8-9-10/2-6-1A-7/5-3…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Major Attraction (1). This one is part of an entry and you have to check to make sure that he is not scratched out — since the same rider has been named on both horses. If he stays in? He gets my action. Comes off a nice third against MSW level and now drops into the MCL ranks for the first time. The barn hits with .18% of those. Has the speed to be close and the pedigree to finish. My solid choice. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas.
10th: 2-1/10-9-5/11-7/(14)(13)-6-8/4-12…Figure of Speech (2) will be making the 2020 debut and first race since running 3rd in the G1 Spinaway Staks at Saratoga last September. She won the debut at “The Spa” by over 5. Daughter of Into Mischief has the look of a Stakes winner. Has been training well down in Florida before the ship up. Comes from the high-pitched barn of Chad Brown and comes in with her running shoes on. My 2nd Key Play of the Day. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under the 1-10-9-5-11-7 in the exactas. I will box the 2-1 in two more.
11th: 5/12-11-6/3-10-4/1/2-9-8…G3 Louisville Stakes…The final Key Play of the Day comes in the final race of the day with Arklow (5). The 6YO has not run since he was 5th in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf in January. But this one has run well in the past off a layup, and he is a G1 winner. Loves this 11/2-mile endurance distance, and the record of 2-2-0 in 7 starts proves it. Gets an old friend back in the saddle, and if the rider can steer clear of a traffic jam or two? Then he looks very formidable. My long shot pick in here is Ry’s the Guy (11), who is 20-1 in the ML. I will definitely use a little on this horse, too. I bet the 5-11 across the board and then key the 5-11 over/under the 12-6-3-10-4-1 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene