|Day Results||10 / 3-3-8|
|2020 Overall 1549||1549 / 545-525-667|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.18%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.38%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,006-1,554||64.74%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 58-90||64.44%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 28-90||31.11%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 13-5-1-2||38.46% Win / 61.54% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 210-74-45-29||35.24% Win / 70.48% ITM|
We had an “OK Day” at the big oval on Friday. That’s “Friday the 13th.”
In fact, we had some good luck along the way.
We had 3 winners on the 10-race card.
We had 7 exactas, although the highest price was $21.40 for a $1 play.
So, we cashed a few tickets and made a few bucks in the mix.
Here’s hoping that we have a little more luck on Saturday. Here’s our picks:
1st: 2-3-4/6-5/1…Mister K (2) has hit the board in the last 3 outings and comes into this one off a nice 2nd at KEE on Oct. 17. Ran better than the odds in each of those efforts. Work here on Nov. 4 was spot on. Trainer does not win a lot of races (.08% in 60 tries this year), but the good ones in the barn are good ones. Like Bell’s the One. This 3YO gelding could be a good one. Coltonator (3) ran well here on Oct. 28. Finished up strong and the rider is red hot, going 6-4-1 in the last20 rides. In 5 mounts for this barn? Has won with .20%. Could end the meet as the leading jockey, too. Big chance here. I bet — take note — the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 2-3 in one exacta. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 4-6-5-1 in two smaller units.
2nd: 4-6-1/5-3-2…Samaronti (4) will make the first start for the new bar operation today. New trainer wins with .11% of those making the barn debut. Will return to the races as a beaten favorite, as well, and this barn wins with .19% of those. Drops to the $30,000 price tag today and this one should relish the easier group. Has 2 starts here with a second and third. Vasariano (6) won just two starts back before fading when facing winners for the first time last out. Now, the 3YO son of Bernardini drops to a career low price. In 7 tries over a fast dirt track, he has only the one win. But at the distance is 1-for-2. Chance. Incorrigible (1) could offer some price value to the exotic mix here. Set at 6-1 ML odds, this one ran OK last time out at Ellis Park. That was back in July, though, and the barn wins with .13% away from the races this long. Goes to the dirt, and the barn hits with .21% of those making this surface switch. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
3rd: 6-5-2/3-7…Solemn Oath (6) ran a solid one when dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time last out. HOF trainer is 0-1-2 in 28 starts this meet. Needs to get off the duck. Chance here. West Side Girl (5) is the ML favorite and the horse to beat. Drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .19% of those kind. Rider — who everyone raved about in the Preakness — is 0-0-3 in 24 starts here this meet. Interesting. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the next two in two smaller units.
4th: 7-4/3-8-6/5…Off Turf…Scratch 1-5…King of Fortune (7) sticks in the race and will move to the dirt. Has never run over a fast dirt track before, but does have experience over the AW at Turfway Park. Will be coming very late in the proceedings, but gets a top rider up for the occasion. Chance. Day Trip (4) has a win and a third over fast dirt surface. Broke the maiden over it at Tampa Bay in December of 2019. Son of Tapit drops in to the claiming ranks for the first time and can be had for a modest $25,000. Not bad for a Tapit with all the right parts. I bet — take note — the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 over/under the rest in two smaller units.
5th: 7-2-4/3-1…If you are going to roll a “7,” you might as well do it back-to-back. Right? (Sorry, that’s for my friends that like to play “Craps.”) Campioni (7) has raced at this distance 11 times. Has compiled a 2-1-2 record. Returns to the fast dirt today, where he is a 2-2-2 mark in 9 starts. Could fit nicely in this spot, where he was claimed at two starts back and nearly won. He’s the Souperwon (2) won at this same level last time out. That was the 2nd win in a row for the 4YO gelded son of Super Saver. Barn is having a solid meet and this one can motor on the front end. Come catch me if you can. County Court (4) ran well at this level two starts ago. Barn wins with .14% when making the third start off a layup. In 6 races here? Two wins and two seconds. Chance. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-1 in two smaller units.
6th: 12-2/7-8/5-3-10-11/4…Scratch 4…Paddy Kaye’s Wild (12) has run 2nd three times in a row. Could have won any of them, or, for that matter, all of them. Likes to stick at the wire, but the barn wins with .19% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Will be around the wire at the wire. Illusionista (2) ran a nice 3rd last time out at this same level. Will get the saddle for the third trainer in 6 lifetime starts. Second time for this conditioner, and he wins with .21% with this type. I bet the 12-2 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 12-2 over/under the 7-8-5-3-10-11 in two smaller units.
7th: 1-10-(14)/3-9/5-6-2-8/7-11/4…Off Turf…Scratch 1-10-13…My top two picks are out of this one, so I will go quickly and immediately to the “Main Track Only” entrant — Explorer (14). This 5YO gelded son of Orb is trained by Brad Cox, who may be the hottest trainer on the Earth. Has won with over .20% this meet, but has been torrid of late. Toss the grass experiment last time out. Has never missed the board in the other 6 races. My solid pick and my first Key Play of the Day. I will: Bet the 14 to win/place/show and then key the 14 over/under the “all button.”
8th: 5-10/4-6/9-3-2/1-7-8…Scratch 3…Mo’s Mojo (5) has never won in 12 tries over a fast dirt surface. Wow. Does have 4 seconds. But no wins. I punt here. Lonely Private (10) could take advantage at some nice odds, too. This 3YO gelded son of Soldat ran a better-than-looks 6th in the last out. Set the pace for much of that one and it was against much tougher. Drops back to near the level that he won here on Sept. 19. Blinkers come off and the barn wins with .27% of those. Second start for the barn and the trainer wins with .33% of those. My first Longshot Pick of the Day. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 5-10 over/under the 4-6-9-3-2-1 in two smaller units.
9th: 2-4/3-1/6/7-5…Scratch 1…Palio Flag (2) is my pick here. This 3YO daughter of Curlin has made 3 lifetime starts and has a win and two seconds to show on the resume. Lost to Regal Beauty last time out, and that one came right back to win the next time, too. Returns as a beaten favorite here for a HOF trainer, and he wins with .26% of those kind. My solid pick and my second Key Play of the Day. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-4 solidly in the exacta. I will key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
10th: 3-1-4/5-7/6-2…Off Turf…Scratch 1…With the move off the turf and the scratch of the 1, I think this race truly sets up nicely for Stunning Sky (3). Has run over the turf in 10 of 11 lifetime races. But? Broke the maiden over the slop in December of 2019. Faced 8 others in that one and won despite hitting the gate. Works well over the dirt and the barn is red hot. Rider has won with .30% of the last 20 rides for this outfit. I’m in. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-4 solidly in the exacta. I will key the 3 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.
11th: 12-11-9/1-6/2-10/7-4/3-5-8…Scratch 13…Honorifique (12) didn’t get the best of luck to start this race from the far outside, but this 2YO daughter of Honor Code could make her own luck in this one. Gets a top rider back up and has 2 seconds in the first 3 career starts. Only time off the board, she was hung way, way wide. Needs an expert in the saddle today. Gets one. My pick. Rookery (11) will likely drop back and make a latter bid with the stretch out to the route race for the first time. Barn wins with .19% of those kind. Gets a hot rider, too, and the work on Nov. 6 was spot, spot, spot on. Big chance here. Empress Catherine (9) is a daughter of Nyquist, who is off to a great start at stud. This one should run much, much, much better today and the barn wins with .21% of those making the 2nd career start. I can’t leave this one out. I bet the 12-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the top 3 over/under the 1-6 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene