|Day’s Results||10 / 4-4-5|
|2022 Overall — 2071||2071 / 699-750-969|
|Win % of Top Pick||33.75%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.92%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1323-2071||63.88%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 55-78||70.51%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 32-78||41.03%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 10/5-2-2||50.00% Win / 90.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 358-541||66.17%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 188-541||34.75%|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 70/30-10-8||42.86% Win / 68.57% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 311/ 128-66-31||41.16% Win / 72.35% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2||16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM|
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM|
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM|
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6||21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM|
(Stats to be updated after Churchill Downs’ card on Friday)
Here’s our looks on this brilliantly bright, sunny, and, yet, still chilly Saturday. Bundle up with clothes, wraps, hats, garments and dough and head to the big oval in Louisville.
1st: 6-8-4/10-(14)/7-2-12/1-3-11…Supe (6) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Big Oval” in Louis-Town on this Saturday afternoon. The 3YO gelding comes in off a “better-than-looks” 3rd in the last encounter at KEE on Oct. 28. Off slow that day and then was checked at the start, as well. Went 7-wide. Comes back here with the same rider up and the barn wins with .13% in the MCL ranks. Could improve off that last effort. Nicholas Jones (8) cost $470,000 just 2 years ago. Now, he will be offered up for $15,000. Ouch. Hurts a tad. But the last work was solid enough and this is not the best group ever assembled for a gate. Chance. Southern Sense (4) drops another rung in the pecking order here and the rider has won with .60% of the last 5 for this barn operation. Good together, I would say. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 10-14 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-4-1/5/2/6…Steely Danza (3) finally broke the MCL back in March on the 12th attempt and then was off from racing until October. Did come back with a nice effort at KEE on Oct. 19. Barn wins with .12% of the last 117 to make the 2nd start off a layoff. Has 3 runner-ups in 4 tries here. One to beat, IMO. Romancer (4) drops in class for this one to an all-time low price tag. Gets a top rider back up and the barn wins with .25% of the last 971 that come to the game as a beaten favorite. Chance. Midaswellrun (1) was claimed last time out and this barn wins with .15% of the last 20 to make the first try after a purchase. Gets a huge rider switch here. Look out with this one. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 2-8-7/9-1/10/4-5-6/3…Suitable (2) was claimed last time out for $50,000 and is now being offered up for $30,000 here. Barn wins with .23% of the last 56 when dropping off the claim purchase. This one will get blinkers for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .13% of those. Look out with a top, top rider in the irons. Look out, indeed. Duplantis (8) ran 2nd at this same level last time out and this barn wins with .26% in dirt starts. Top young trainer in the game. Led Tasso (7) is a son of Ghostzapper who just hasn’t lived up to billing, so far. Will need to flash more today, but will try late. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. And, I will key the 2 over/under the 8-7-9-1-10 in two smaller units.
4th: 2-4/1-6/3-5/7…Frigid Lady (2) could give trainer Mike Maker a good day. This 2YO daughter of Frosted won last time out after being claimed just two back. Gets a top, top rider up and this one could be coming to hand very nicely. Looks like she is on a roll and will be in a nice stalking position if all goes well. Condensation (4) has gone 2-for-2 and done nothing wrong. Yet. May be one to watch, as well. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-4 in the exactas. And, I will key the 2 over/under the 4-1-6-3-5-7 in two smaller units.
5th: 5-9/4-6/8/1-3/2-7…Cape Trafalgar (5) has never missed the board in the first three outings and gets a huge rider switch here. Has speed, but may be able to preserve some of that with the new pilot. Barn wins with .30% when coming back as a beaten favorite. Sharp work here on Nov. 14. All signs are positive. Woodline (9) has not been out since June and now switches barns. Neither is a positive sign. But this one has 2 runner-ups and 5 thirds in the first 8 starts. Chance. I bet the 5 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 5-9 in the exactas. I will key the 5 over/under the 9-4-6-8-1-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-11-1/8-5-7/9-10-6/2//4…Reagan (3) was a great President and may be a really good horse, too. Ran 2nd by a neck on debut here in late September. Could have own that one, easily. Has speed and gets a new rider up here, and that may help the bit it takes to put this one over the line first. Lark’s Mischief (11) is a first time starter and by the great Into Mischief. Working well for the debut and the sire wins with .16% on first tries. Dam has a winner from 1 starter. Outside post is a real question mark. Easy Action (1) is at the other extreme of the starting gate, but that may not help either. Don’t really like the rail with the youngsters. But this one has a race under the girth and could be ready to spike a good one here. Barn wins with .14% of the last 65 on 2nd starts. I bet the 3-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-11 over/under the 1-8-5-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 11-3-1/8-9-12/4-6-1/2-5-7…Blue Kentucky (11) draws an extreme outside post, as well, but this one has plenty of speed if the connections decide to go that route. Gets a new rider and that should help here after being claimed at this same level last tim out. Won that one and could go back-to-back. New barn wins with .29% on the first try after a purchase. Wow. Big number. Explosive (3) needs to be a bit more like his name. Has been rather dull in the last two. Drops considerably for this effort and that could put this one in the hunt. Barn wins with .13% when putting the blinkers back on and with a whopping .39% when dropping this much at one time. Bonus Appreciation (1) goes for a top barn who is struggling a bit this meet — winning at only .04% rate. But this one gets a huge drop, too, and the barn wins with .26% when plummeting this much at one time. I bet the 11-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8-9-12 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-2-3/11-7-1/8/6/4-9-10…Carcano (5) has run two huge ones in a row and should be sitting on go here, but the 2YO Bolt d’Oro colt will probably need to run another huge one here to be in the hunt at the wire. Some really talented pedigrees and youngsters will make the debut here, too. This one gets the edge on experience, but watch the odds. Can’t go too low for me. Corona Bolt (2) is by the same sire as the top pick and has been training lights out. Dam of this one has 1 winner from 2 starts and the jockey/trainer are on fire of late — having gone 3-3-2 in the last 12. Event Detail (3) could be the surprise of this group and upset the cart. This son of City of Light cost $600,000 in 2020 as a weanling. Barn wins with .27% on dirt starts. Look out. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 5-3 over/under the 2-11-7-1-8 in two smaller units.
9th: 6-10/4-8-9-2-(14)/(15)-(17)/7//1-5…This is the lone grass race slated for today and it will be contested at the 11/16-mile distance. I go with Caldee (6), who is a solid 5-1 odds in the Brisnet.com ML. This 4YO filly is by More Than Ready and made for the sod. Ran well last year, but been off a year. Has been training well for the return and has run well off the rest before. Still…A year? Fairchild (10) is my top bet in this one. Has gone 1-0-2 in 4 starts this year and I can toss the last one. It was 11/2-miles and despite that was steadied in the race, too. Rider that day is long gone. Kentucky’s best gets the nod here and he has won with .26% for this trainer in the last 35 mounts. My bet goes here. I bet the 10 — take note — to win/place/show and double down on the win wager. I will box the 6-10 in the exactas. And, I will key the 10 over/under there 6-4-8-9-14 in two smaller units.
10th: 1-2/4-7-6/5/3…G3 Chilukki Stakes…I give the edge to the railbird, Coach (1), who returned from a long layoff to run a very solid 2nd in a Stakes at Laurel Park last time out on Oct. 1. Gets a regular rider back up and returns home to where she is 1-0-1 in three starts previously. In two previous runs at this distance, this one has a win and a 2nd. Works are solid. Look out here. Mariah’s Princess (2) has hit the board in 5 of 7 lifetime and is coming off a three-race stretch where she has 2 wins and a 2nd. Good right now. Speed rider up. Probably goes right to the front here. First time at this distance. But cuts back. I bet the 1 to win/place and then box the 1-2 in the exactas. I will key the 1-2 over/under the 4-7-6-5 in two smaller units.
11th: 8-3-9/5/1/6/2-4/7…War Campaign (8) loves this track, where he has gone 1-0-2 in three previous starts. One of those was the Bourbon Trail Stakes here on Sept. 24. Lost that one by a head to Home Brew, a real good one. If this guy runs back to that level? Look out. Strong Quality (3) has never missed the board in 6 starts, to date. Sharp work on Nov. 11. Has speed and can strut it a distance, too. One to beat, IMO. Gate Runner (9) won here to break the MSW just two starts ago. Beat Ten Gauge (5) in that one, too. The latter came back to win the next time out here over a sloppy track on Nov. 11. Good race. Lots of contenders. I bet the 8-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene
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