||12 / 5-3-2
|2022 Overall — 2151
||2151 / 726-780-1002
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1376-2151
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 88-130
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 48-130
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 16/6-5-2
||37.50% Win / 81.25% ITM
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 378-569
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 199-569
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 76/36-10-8
||47.37% Win / 71.05% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 323/ 135-69-31
||41.80% Win / 72.76% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0
||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2
||16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6
||21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM
(Stats to be updated after Friday’s card is completed)
Here’s our looks at some of the most promising 2YOs on the grounds; in the Commonwealth; and in the country on the next-to-last day of live racing at Churchill Downs in 2022. What a year it has been. And, it has gone like a Flightline in the stretch. But we have so much more to look forward to before we can put a pin in it.
1st: 7-8-4/5/10-3-6/1-9-(13)/11-2-12…Prairie Dunes (7) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louis-Town on the final Saturday of live racing at Churchill Downs in 2022. This day will showcase 12 races — and a couple of major Stakes events — just for the 2YOs. And, this one is no different. Our top pick is a son of Curlin and comes in off an impressive 2nd here on Nov. 13. Nearly won that one coming from the clouds. Gets a new rider who is known for speed rides and gate springs. Look for a better start here. If he does? Look out. Determinedly (8) ran 2nd at KEE last time out. That was just the 2nd dirt try for this one and he could improve with this performance. Gets a top rider for the assignment. Desert Wolf (4) ran 2nd here just two starts ago and was defeated as the favorite in the slop last time. I toss that effort completely and the barn wins with a whopping .26% with beaten favorites. Look for this one to run much, much better. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
2nd: 5-7-12/10-9-3/1-4/2-6/11-8…Towhead (5) ran a huge one over the slop here on Oct. 30. Just got run down near the wire. Not a bad effort after 4 straight over the sod. In 3 tries over this track now, this one has 2 runner-ups and a 3rd on the resume. Gets a good gate rider, who should take advantage of this one’s natural speed. Rider has teamed up with this trainer to go 3-1-0 in the last 9 efforts. Comparative (7) gets the blinkers from one of the best barn operators in the land. Has run two good 3rds to start the career. Barn’s to-to rider up again. Look for this one to be in a nice stalking spot. Can she finish the job? Theroanrunner (12) just got tired in the career debut. Will go strong early, too, but the post position didn’t help any. New rider up and he has gone 0-for-18 for this barn in the last 60 days. Hmmm. I bet the 5 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 5 over/under the 7-12-10-9-3 in two smaller units.
3rd: 2-5-1/4-6/7/3-8…Victory Formation (2) ran off to an easy and impressive win in the career debut. This one looks like he can be a very attractive sprinter. Sharp work here on Nov. 18. Look out with this rider back up. Could be any kind. Joking Way (5) goes for great connections and won the last time out here by nearly 7 lengths. Odds-on favorite that day. Can’t be dismissed. Not here. Welaka (1) could be a live long-shot play here, too. This one won at KEE just two starts ago and gets a new rider about missing the break completely last time out. Look for better here. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will double down on the 2-5 exacta box, too.
4th: 11-(15)/10-9/5-12/4/1-7/6/2-(13)…Vahva (11) does not get any luck in post position draw, but this 2YO daughter of Gun Runner brings a top pedigree and a nice game into this one, too. Nearly won last time out before getting caught on the wire after pulling off to a big lead. If she improves off that performance, at all, then look out here. Classy Bridgette (15) could be a factor if she draws in from the AE List, but that is doubtful. So? I bet the 11 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 11 over/under the 10-9-5-12-4 in the exactas. More with the 15, if in, and 10-9 if not.
5th: 2-7-(16)/10-9-(14)/11-(13)/3-4…Escapologist (2) is a solid 5-1 in the ML odds, according to Brisnet.com, and I like this one’s chances. Has come from far out of it in the first two. Made nice runs in each. Goes farther today and that should help this one and the barn is known to get better and better after the first few starts. Look out. Point Proven (7) nearly won last time out in NY, and could be a tough out here. Gets a top rider, who has won with .21% for this HOF trainer over the last 29 mounts. Looks like the one to beat after improving with the addition of blinkers last time out. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 10-9-11 in two smaller units.
6th: (12)-1-10/5-3/2-8-9/4-6-7…Aristocracy (12) would be a very formidable runner in this group if he 2YO son of Tapit gets in. Look to see if this one is moved to the main track. If so? I go here. If not? I lock down on Good Heart (1). This one is bred for the grass and the dam has 2 turf winners already. This one ran huge at KY Downs over the hills and dales. Left at gate and never ran much over the dirt in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity in the last out. Toss. Look for more with a return to the sod. Deer District (10) has run three good ones in a row and could kick start a big day for a barn that needs a big day. Ran very well in the G2 Stakes last time out. One to beat, IMO. I bet the 1-10 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 1-10 over/under the 5-3-2-8-9 in two smaller units.
7th: 3/4-2-6/5//1…Fern Creek Stakes…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Key of Life (3). This 2YO daughter of Mo Town cost a hefty $350,000 to purchase at a 2YO In-Training Sale earlier this year. Been worth it, so far, but still has work to do. Has earned a record of 3-0-1 in the first 4 starts and has pocketed $262,000 in purses so far. But has won the last two by nearly 7 lengths each and looks to have a very promising future. Look for this one to speed early and be a tough out late. Looks to have the goods. I bet the 3 to win/place and then key the 3 over/under the 4-2-6-5 in the exactas. More with the 4-2-6 than the other.
8th: 5-4/10-3-6-11/7-2/1-9//8…Hit Show (5) won the debut for trainer Brad Cox, who could have a huge day on this 2YO Showcase Event. This son of Candy Ride comes from a Stakes-winning Tapit mare, and, thus, has the pedigree of a stallion prospect. Won the debut by nearly 6. Working well coming into this one. Could be a hit and he could put on a show. So to speak. Must Be the Money (4) was well touted in the opener and it looked to be folly’s money in the early going. Awful, awful start. But came with a huge flurry to get up and motor right on by at the wire. Impressive debut, to be sure. If he improves at all? Could be a real good one. My first “Upset Special of the Day.” I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 5-4 over/under the 10-3-6-11-7-2 in two smaller units.
9th: 6-5/2-3/4-7//1…Ed Brown Stakes…This is a 6.5-furlong sprint Stakes and I line up with Top Recruit (6) in this one. The son of Midshipman ran 4th in the G3 Street Sense Stakes last time out. Led the early stages of that one. Won a Stakes at Ellis Park in the Summer. Has talent and the rider has won 3 of the last 9 for this barn. Powerful (5) did not run a step in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last time out. Not a step. But won at Saratoga just two back First two races were huge. Toss the last and you have to like this one’s chances here. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-5 over/under the 2-3-4-7 in two smaller units.
10th: 4-1/8-7/3-5-10/6/9-2…G2 Golden Rod Stakes…A couple of years ago, trainer Tom Amoss had a really good filly in Serengeti Empresss. That one went on to win the KY Oaks as a 3YO. Now, Amoss may have another good one — who could be great — in Hoosier Philly (4). This daughter of Into Mischief has run twice so far. Won them both. Easily. Impressively. Captured the Rags to Riches Stakes here at first try at two turns by over 71/2 lengths. Over. Came with a tremendous turn of foot to dispose of that field. Will face better here, but she may be the best. Look out. Pretty Mischievous (1) is a perfect 2-for-2, as well, and this is another daughter of Into Mischief with great potential. Can stalk. Can finish. Has both wins over this main track, too. Will stretch out for the first time, and this trainer wins with .13% of those kind. I bet the 4 across the board and then key the 4 over/under the 1-8-7-3-5-10 in the exactas.
11th: 8-1-9/6-5/7/3//4/2…G2 KY Jockey Club Stakes…This is one of the final preps for next year’s Kentucky Derby that is left on the 2022 calendar and it is a good one. Instant Coffee (8) is my pick. This son of Bolt d’Oro won the debut at Saratoga and did so from off the pace in impressive closing fashion. But? got left at the gate in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and never could recover fully. Finished a game 4th, but no match for the top 2. Could prove to be a tough out here, though. My pick. Solid. Curly Jack (1) won the G3 Iroquois here in September. Did that from off the pace, too. But this one is tactical and could press the pace just a tad more. Tried that in the Breeders’ Futurity. Just no match there. Cyclone Mischief (9) is my “Upset Special of the Day.” I truly love this son of Into Mischief and despite the fact that he just broke the MSW last time out, he could pose a serious threat here. Loved the stretch out last time. Ran well from a stalking pace-setting position. If he can settle just a bit, he will get first jump on the others. Look out at a nice price. I bet the 8-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-9 over/under the 1-6-5-7-3 in two smaller units.
12th: 11-6-3/2-12-5/(13)-9/4-7/1-8…Mobster (11) gets a far outside post and that does not help the case, but this son of Uncle Mo ran better-than-it-looks in the debut run at KEE. Winner that day is no slouch. Sharp work here on Nov. 18. Barn is ice cold, like it was here in the Spring, too. Has won with only 1-of-25 so far this meet. Ugh. Itzos (6) will make the debut, but this one cost a nice $1.4 million at the Fasig-Tipton August Sale last year. Has trained well for a hot trainer. Gets a good gate rider up, who has won with .21% of the last 14 for this trainer, too. My pick. I’m in. All in. Talladega (3) was bet down to favorite in the debut race and this one never ran a step over a sloppy track here on oct. 30. Off slow. Ran slower. Must be better than that to garner such big betting support. Another shot. I bet the 6-3 across the board — take note — and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6-3 over/under the 11-2-12-5 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Geno