|Total Day Results||12 / 3-5-5|
|2021 Overall 1,764||1764 / 660-639-829|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.41%%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.21%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,196-1,764||67.80%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 128-190||67.37%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 59-190||31.05%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 27/11-6-0||40.74% Win / 62.96% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 269/ 121-60-24||44.98% Win / 76.21% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/0-1-1||00.00% Win / 16.67% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0||19.05% Win / 23.81% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
Only 3 winners on the 12-race “Black Friday” race card held at Churchill Downs. Lone “Key Play of the Day” ran a disappointing 4th. Only cracked the lid on three small, meager exactas.
A gloomy projection to a gloomy day.
Here’s hoping we fare better in the final two days. Better to just turn the page.
Here’s our looks for Saturday’s amazing “Future Stars” card:
1st: 9-3-(13)-4/10-1/6-8-11-12/5-2-7…Have I Ever (9) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on the next-to-last day of the 2021 racing calendar at Churchill Downs. This 2YO daughter of Competitive Edge is owned by Maggi Moss, who normally stations all her horses with the affable Tom Amoss. This one? Trained by Cherie DeVaux. Interesting. But this will be the first time out, and the trainer wins with .16% of those. Training very well, especially on Nov. 16 at KEE. Gets a very hot rider, who has teamed up to go 2-for-2 with this trainer in the last two weeks. Looks good on paper. First “Longshot Special of the Day.” Right off the bat. Medley (3) has raced three times already and has the experience edge here. Comes off three straight 3rds to start the career. Likes to come late and will need to get motivated a bit earlier this time around the oval. Gets a new rider who is tearing things up here once again. Like the rider switch. If Fast Giselle (13) draws in from the AE List, I have to use. If not, I will rotate to Zmuda (4), who has run two 4ths in two outings. Barn is red hot here this meet and just won another Stakes on Thanksgiving. Chance. I bet the 9-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over the 10-1 in two smaller units. Wide open. Tread lightly.
2nd: 12/6-4-7/(14)-3-8-5/1-13-(16)…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes early in the card and with Unpredictable Bay (12) in this MSW event for the 2YOs. This son of Cairo Prince has run 6 times so far. Five seconds and a third on the resume. This one is too good not to win soon / sometime. Lost by a neck last time out. Chances have been there, to be sure. But the blinkers may kick in. Shorter distance may help here, too. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then key the 12 over/under the 6-4-7-14-3-8-5 in the exactas.
3rd: 10-12/3-5-7-8/1-11-6-9/(13)-4-2…Blamethechampagne (10) will get the saddle from a great, great guy who is 0-for-40 here this meet. That’s cold. Ice cold. But this barn is too good to go this long without a win. Right? I think so. This one has hit the board in each of the last 3 outs and has faced some good ones in the past, too. Today the day? Eclipsed (12) is another “Longshot Special of the Day” candidate and nominee. This daughter of Exaggerator didn’t run very well last time out, but that was against a nice one who shows up in the 2YO filly Stakes later on the card. First time out, this one ran very well in May. Winner that day came right back to win the next outing. This will be the first route try and the barn wins with .15% of those kind. Gets a new rider who seldom ventures to this trainer. Interesting. Sharp work on Nov. 20. Worth a shot. I bet the 10-12 across the board and then box the top 2 in the exactas. I will key the 10-12 over/under the 3-5-7-8 in two smaller units.
4th: (14)-3/7-9-(13)/4-8-12/6-1-5/11-2-(15)…Becameral (14) has a lot of work to do just to get a shot in this spot. Has to draw in from the AE List. And, has to jump over several in the offing to make even that happen, too. If this daughter of Constitution makes the race? Look out. Ran well on debut and then was a distant 3rd in the G1 Del Mar Debutante. Winner is a good one. If this one does NOT get in, I revert to Save Island (3). This daughter of Quality Road nearly won here on debut on Nov. 6. Just tired at the end after getting to the front. Should benefit from that exercise and be tighter for this one. Threat. I bet the 14 and/or 3 across the board and then key them over/under the 7-9-13-4-8-12 in the exactas.
5th: 9-(13)-(14)-12-11/1/2-3-4-8-10-(15)/7-6…Andy Cant (9) ran a huge one last time out at KEE. Nearly took the ribbon that day, with a surge late. Gets a hot rider and the world’s best in the irons this time around. May make the difference. Barn is having a solid meet, winning at a .23% clip over 22 starts. Watch the AE List to see if either the #13 or #14 draw in. But it doesn’t matter for me, much. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers who get in for the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 13-14-12-11-1 in smaller versions.
6th: 6-10/2-9/(16)-11-4-7-(14)/12-5/(15)-8-1…Chasing Time (6) gets the saddle from HOF trainer Steve Asmussen, who won 5 races here on Thanksgiving Day. This son of Not This Time nearly won last time out and caught a massive performance from Howling Time in the career debut. That one may just win the Stakes later on. So? I go strong with Chasing Time here. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-10 in the exactas. I will key the 6-10 over/under the 2-9-16-11-4-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 6-8/3-5-1-4/7-12/9-10-11…Bhoma (6) has hit the board in 3 of the first 4 career starts for a red hot barn operation. This one nearly won as the favorite last time out. Just caught a sloppy track that seemed to compromise the effort some. Barn wins with .19% of those returning as a beaten fav. Rider has won with over .24% of the last 72 mounts here, as well. Manasota Sunset (8) is my next “Longshot Special of the Day.” This got switches to a high-percentage jockey and drops into the high-level claiming ranks after a try at the Stakes level. Toss the last race debacle? This one has been right there and looks like she could be again. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-8 over/under the 3-5-1-4-7-12 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-9/11-1-8-4/6-7-10/12-(13)/2-3…Fan the Fire (5) just broke the MSW last time out and moves up to face winners for the first time here. Barn wins with .19% of those. Rider has gone 5-3-2 in the last 14 mounts for this barn. Ran up against Tiz the Bomb just two starts ago, and that one has left many of them in the wake. Legendary Lore (9) has run two good ones in a row and looks salty in this spot, as well. Comes from off the pace and will need some racing room late. But in two previous tries here? A win. A second. Could add to that list here. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 5-9 over/under the 11-1-8-4 in two smaller units.
9th: 5-2-3/7/1-8-6…Lively Shively Stakes…This is a 6.5-furlong sprint over the main track and I will saddle up with Texan Twist (5). This gelding ran off to win by nearly 8 at KEE last time out. Before that, ran 2nd in a Stakes event at Remington Park and 2nd in a Stakes at Colonial Downs. Has the ability to close out the job. Barn wins with .18% with 2YOs, and that is over the last 510 starts. Cool Papa G (2) ran behind our top pick last time out, but could fare better with this effort — since this one will be the 2nd attempt off a layup. Barn wins with .20% of these and gets a world-class rider switch here, too. Take note. Chattalot (3) is another from the barn of Team Asmussen. Ran 3rd over the slop last time out after pushing a suicide pace early on. If the new rider can throttle back the speed numbers? Look out. I bet the 5-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7 in two smaller units.
10th: 4-1/6-7-5-2-3/8…G2 Golden Rod Stakes…This is the 11/16-mile event for the 2YO fillies, and I have to amp up with the heavy ML favorite Sandstone (4). This Street Sense filly has won the last two by a combined 19 lengths. No contest. In either. Looks like she could add to that resume here. Famed (1) may be the only one that can warm up the top contender. This is a Uncle Mo filly, who is a homebred for Godolphin Stables. Won the last out at KEE by nearly 8. Lost the opener to a gal who is in a Stakes later on at the sprint distance. This one could be the real deal. As in? Real. Deal. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 4-1 over (only) the 6-7-5-2-3 in a smaller insurance policy.
11th: 6-5/1-4/7-9-10/2-11/8-12-13/3-14…G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes…What a dynamite race that very well could have serious implications and impact on the 202 Kentucky Derby. Hard not to amp up with Tiz the Bomb (6), who is fresh off his 2nd place finish in the controversial Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar. Was 2nd to Modern Games, but was the betting winner for those with tickets in the horizontal plays. Came with a serious late rush in that one. Visually impressive on the international stage. Last time on dirt? Won by 14 at Ellis Park. So? Hard to knock. But? I love Howling Time (5). Of all the 2YOs I have seen this year — including that thing name Corniche who has a troubled trainer — this one is the best looking, IMO. Won both of his two starts this year. Came from off the pace in a sprint and in the Street Sense Stakes here, too. I am going to do something crazy. I’m gong to…I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-6 in the exactas. I will key the 5 over/under the 6-1-4-7-9-10 in two smaller units.
12th: 8-2/4-5/1-6/3-7…Fern Creek Stakes…Sweet Dani Girl (8) — who defeated Famed in the career debut for each — pops up here in the sprint Stakes. Love this one. A perfect 2-for-2 and comes with a serious stretch run in each. Florida-bred is training great, still, and the veteran rider knows his way around the oval. I settle in here. Matareya (2) seems poised for a good one with a return to the sprint distance. Ran super until tiring in the 11/16-mile, G1 Alcibiades Stakes at KEE last time out. Won the debut by nearly 5 at the sprint distance. Look out here. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 4-5-1-6 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene