||8 / 3-4-5
|2022 Overall — 1682
||1682 / 567-620-798
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1079-1682
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 18-35
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 10-35
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 3/0-2-0
||00.00% Win / 66.67% ITM
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 315-473
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 166-473
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 64/26-9-7
||40.63% Win / 64.06% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 270/ 107-58-25
||39.63% Win / 70.37% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 11/2-1-1
||18.18% Win / 36.36% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 44/9-7-5
||20.45% Win / 47.73% ITM
(Stats to be updated after Churchill Downs’ card on Friday is completed)
Here’s our looks at the huge, hugely important, and Stakes-filled card of Churhcill Downs on this Saturday Night’s extravaganza at the “big oval” in Louisville:
1st: 4-1/2-7/3-8/5-6…Candy Island (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval” in Louis-Town on this Saturday night “Lights” event. The 3YO Shackleford filly drops all the way from the MSW level to the MCL $10,000 price point here and should be a handful in this class bracket. Work a bullet here on Sept. 20. Gets a great gate rider who knows his way around the oval. Could be graduation day. Yellow Creek Road (1) ran well at this same level last time out at Ellis Park and could be a handful in this spot again here. Gets to a new barn and the trainer wins with .08% of those making their debut in the new digs. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-1 in the exactas. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 2-7-3-8 in two smaller units.
2nd: 4-5/2-1-7-6/3…Flags Up (4) has not had the best of years, but in 9 career starts over this main track, this 4YO son of Honor Code has a 2-1-2 record and has been facing tougher in the past. Work here on sept. 17 looks very solid and the reliable rider is back for another shot. Dangerous. Master of Arms (5) could spring the upset here. This one was claimed before he won just two races ago. Faced much tougher last time out and this barn wins with half of the last 6 to make the 2nd start after a purchase. New rider up for this assignment and the jockey is blazing hot to start this abbreviated meet. Look out. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 2-1-7-6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 12-8/6-7/2-11/1-5-10/3-4…Swiss Guard (12) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This 2YO son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah threw in a clunker last time out when moved to the grass at KY Downs. Didn’t like the hills and dales. Not even a little bit. The race before that, though, was a bit more encouraging. Now, this one drops all the way from the MSW level to the MCL $20,000 price tag. Look for someone to go shopping here. Good to see Ricardo Santana back and riding for Team Asmussen. These guys did some great work together. Mataro (8) has some considerable speed and will use it early and often. New rider on board and will try to harness some of that for the later stages. Drops from the MSW ranks to the $20,000 level here, too. Should be a huge threat. I bet the 12-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 12-8 over/under the 6-7-2-11-1 in two smaller units.
4th: 5/7/3-4/1-2-6…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with ML favorite Aidanike (5). This 4YO filly will be offered up for the $10,000 price tag here and is sure to get harnessed at this price. Was claimed just two starts ago at Saratoga for $12,500. Nearly won that day after winning and being claimed in the race before here on June 11. Won that one by nearly 5. Looks like a standout here. I bet the 5 to win/place and then key the 5 over/under the 7-3-4-1-2-6 in the exactas. More with the 7 than any of the rest.
5th: 4-7/8-9/10-6/2-1/3-5-12…Tommy Gun (4) is a NY-bred who travels here after being purchased at the claim box last time out at Saratoga. Nearly won that day in a restricted race for only the Empire State-breds. Finds a nice group to make the KY debut for a top trainer. Gets a hot rider for the job here. Threat against open company. Golden Luna (7) is an upset option. This one drops from the MSW level to the $30,000 price point here. Could be a tough out at this level. Has some serious speed and the group will have to run this one down. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 8-9-10-6 in two smaller units.
6th: 9-2-12/4-(1A)/7-8-10/1-3-5-11…Birthday Munnings (9) tired in the opener and should be fitter for this occasion. Will get the blinkers for the first time and the barn wins with .16% of the last 121 to get those. Work on Sept. 16 was spot on. Watch out here. Premium (2) could improve immensely off the first start, too. This one is a home bred for Peter Blum and had some traffic issues in the debut effort. New rider shows up here and that is worth noting and watching. Carcano (12) is a first timer and the barn only wins with .06% of those. But? But this one is working lights out and is by one of the top young stallions on the market this year. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-1A (if that one draws in). If the 1A does not make it in? Add the 7-8.
7th: 3-1/5/4-6/7/2…Seneca Overnight Stakes…This is a 11/16-mile Stakes event and draws a stellar crowd of 3YO fillies. I’ll go with a bit of an upset and saddle up with Falconet (3). This daughter of Uncle Mo has never been worse than 2nd in 4 career starts and ran 2nd in the G3 Iowa Oaks last time out for a HOF trainer. Returns here as the beaten favorite and the barn wins with .27% of those kind. Tunerloose (1) is likely to be the PT favorite, and this one ran 7th in this year’s G1 KY Oaks. In 2 starts over a fast dirt surface, this one has a win in the G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Class act here. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top two numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 5-4-6 in two smaller units.
8th: 7/6-2-4/5/1-3…Harrods Creek Stakes…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Gunite (7) — who could team up with some others to give both trainer Steve Asmussen and owner Ron Winchell a big day at the oval. This 3YO son of Gun Runner has hit the board in 9 of 10 lifetime and comes in off a huge 2nd-place effort against “The Champ” Jack Christopher in the G1 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes at Saratoga. Anything close to that effort? So long. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the 6-2-4-5 in the exactas.
9th: 7-1/6-4-3/5/2…G3 Dogwood Stakes…Once again, Team Asmussen-Winchell look to have a loaded hand heading into this 7-furlong test. They have both Echo Zulu (1) and Wicked Halo (7). Both of real talents. Both are fast and furious. Both are Graded Stakes winners. And, it will be interesting to see if both of them run. Against each other. Either way could be a winning way. If they both go, I give a slight edge to Wicked Halo (7). This one comes in off a win in the G2 Prioress Stakes at Saratoga. And, this one is a little more versatile and a lot more tested of late. So? I bet the 7 across the board and then box the top 2 if they both are in. If not, I key either the 7 or 1 over/under the 6-4-3-5 in the exactas.
10th: 3-2/8-7/6-4/5/1-9…Bourbon Trail Stakes…This is a new Stakes and one worth being Graded, as well. What a field. What a classy bunch. And, I will go with a bit of an upset with the 3YO son of Tapit — Saint Tapit (3). This one is not tested in Stakes company yet, much less Graded Stakes company. But this one is undefeated after 2 starts and has both the pedigree and the style to be a world class athlete. Look out here. Home Brew (2) ran 4th in the G3 West Virginia Derby last time out, but won two Stakes in a row before then. Has trained well for this one and gets a new rider up. May be back to form here. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win bet. I will box the 3-2 in the exactas, and then key the 3-2 over/under the 8-7-6-4-5 in two smaller units.
11th: 9-12/1-8/2-4-11/3-5-7/6…Birdie Rose (9) gets my nod in the finale. This 2YO filly will make the career debut for the Brad Cox barn and is coming in off a series of really good a.m. works. Looks primed. Pioneer Parade (12) could pose an upset threat. This one will make the career debut, too, and the dam of this one has produced 2 winners from 2 starters and has thrown a Stakes winner already, too. Look out with a top rider in the gear box. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the 9-12 in the exactas. I will key the 9-12 over/under the 1-8-2-4-11 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene