|Total Day Results||10 / 6-3-6|
|2021 Overall 1,456||1456 / 553-514-698|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.98%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.41%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 985-1,456||67.65%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 38-57||66.67%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 21-57||36.84%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 8/5-1-1||62.50% Win / 87.50% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 218/ 98-49-22||44.95% Win / 77.52% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ CD 8/0-1-3||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (9-8-21) 11/3-0-0||27.27% Win / 27.27% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Ky Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM|
Had us a pretty darn good day at the ole’ ball yard in Lou Lou on Friday. Darn. Good.
We had 6 winners on the 10-race card and we nailed exactas that returned the likes of $33.80, 49.60, $27.00, $10.70, $13.80, $22.40, $82.60, $7.80 and $19.50 for each $1 played correctly. Here’s hoping you had more than the minimum, especially considering that we scored exacta returns in 9 of the 10 races.
Our two “Key Plays of the Day” rendered a win and a second.
Our lone “Longshot Play of the Day” was a nice third.
All in all?
I hope you were all in and all’s good.
Here’s our looks for Saturday’s big day of racing at the ole’ oval in Lou Lou:
1st: 4-1-2/5/3-6…Ginnsu Warrior (4) gets the early nod to kick start the day in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Lou Lou. This 2YO son of First Samurai comes in off a neck win last time out at Indy Grand. That broke the MSW and gave this one three top 2 finishes in the first 3 starts. Will now face winners for the first time and the barn wins with .25% of those. Drops into the claiming ranks for this one, and picks up a speed rider for the journey. This one does have stalking moves and should be close to the front runners. Threat at this level, to be sure. Climb and Maintain (1) is a gelded son of Sky Mesa and will be dropping back down into the claiming ranks after facing much, much tougher in the last two outings. Was up against Stakes company on the grass last time out. Toss that one. Barn wins with .19% when making this surface conversion and with .18% when routing for the 2nd time ever. Gets a top rider, who has won with .14% of the last 28 mounts for this barn operation, too. Chance. Magic Shot (2) won easily last time out to break the maiden and get to the winner’s circle for the first time. Ran off to a near 6-length win that day at Ellis Park. Has speed. Will use it. Gets a new rider here, and he is beginning to heat up some. ‘barn wins with .18% when returning off this type of a vacation. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
2nd: 5-4/2-6-1/7-3…Flash of Promise (5) picks up the blinkers for the first time here and this barn wins with .25% when adding the new shades to the equipment list. Has hit the board in 3 of 5 starts so far and the barn’s go-to rider is up in the irons here. Work on Aug. 12 was solid and this one should benefit in a return to Churchill Downs. Won the only time over this track. Hoistthemainsail (4) gets the blinkers on here, as well. this barn wins with .13% of those kind, and will be making the 2nd start for the new barn operation after being claimed just two starts ago. Barn wins with a whopping .44% of those making the 2nd start for the new shed row and .21% with the 2nd start for the new trainer. Interesting rider choice here. Zero-for-4 at this locale. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top two numbers in the exactas. I will key the 5-4 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units. More with the 2-6-1 than the rest.
3rd: 8-5/4-6/7/3-1/2…Cousteau (8) will be making the first start for the new trainer and the first trip to the gate since running 5th on debut here in June of 2020. Was bet down to favoritism that day, despite the fact that there was a horse by the name of Jackie’s Warrior in that tilt. JW went on to win that one easily, too. Has been training great for the return and the new trainer wins with .11% of those returning from this long of a layup. Gets Lasix for the first time here and the barn wins with .09% of those kind, too. Meet’s top rider gets the leg up and that is a boost. Look out here. My first “Key Play of the Day.” I will bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-5 in the exactas. I will key the 8-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units. More with the 4-6-7 than the rest.
4th: 1-3-6/7/2/4-5…Cheetara (1) has raced only two times in NA, after being shipped here from Chile. But both of those efforts have been top notch. Top. Notch. Nearly won the opener in this country on July 26. Lost by a rapidly-declining neck at the wire at Colonial Downs that day. Came back to run in a Stakes in Virginia the next time out on Aug. 23. Went to the front in that 7-furlong tilt and never looked back. Won by a neck that day. Gets a new rider up here and the barn is having a solid year, too. Has won with .12% of 165 starters. Looks to be on the improve. Look out. Istan Council (3) is a hard name to spell and sneak it past the demons at “spell check.” But other than that? This 5YO mare has some real talent. has won over $362,000 in 24 starts and comes in here with over $117,000 won at Churchill Downs. At this distance, has 3 seconds in 5 starts. Comes out of the Groupie Doll Stakes at Ellis. Tough luck in that one when she tugged and pulled and wanted to go on with things in the first turn. Would be better if this rider would allow her to have her head, if not her own way. Works are good. Let her loose. See how far she goes. Better than the power struggle that ensued last time out. Saracosa (6) comes out of a Stakes race at Colonial Downs, too. She rallied very late in that one to win at the wire and pull away from the crowd. Barn wins with .24% when they won the last race, and this one has 3 seconds and 2 thirds in 7 previous runs here. No wins, though. Zero. Hmmm. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-2 in two smaller units, as well.
5th: 1-2/7-4/3-6/10…Blest Life (1) is 5-1 in the ML, according to my great friends over at Brisnet.com, and that’s really not high enough to become a “Longshot Special of the Day.” But if this 2YO Hard Spun filly were to drift up the odds board, then she would fit my bill nicely. Has run two 4ths to begin the career for the Brad Cox barn. Both of those efforts had signs of promise, but she spit the bit in each. Will return here after running over a sloppy track last time out. That may not have suited this one. Drops from the MSW ranks at Saratoga all the way to the $20,000 level here, too. That should pick this one’s head up a bit, as well. Barn wins with .31% when going into the MCL ranks for the first time. I use. Baja Fog (2) is likely to be the PT favorite. This one comes from the barn of Wesley Ward, the guru of 2YO trainers. Ran a Saratoga against the $40,000 group last time out. Never much into it. Ran here in May and nearly won against $50,000 level. Drops here and the barn wins with .38% when crashing this much in price at one time. Blinkers come off, and the barn wins with .24% of those. Should improve on the 2nd try off the layup, too. One to beat. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-2 over/under the 7-4-3-6-10 in two smaller units.
6th: 9-2/1/6-7-8/5-3-4…Rockstrar Ro (9) returns here after a layoff since April 24. Last time out, this one ran in the William Walker Stakes here and was 4th to Field Day. Winner that day came right back to win the next out and our top pick here was beaten just 2 lengths. Has run well off a layup before and the barn is red hot. Two wins in the first three outs this September meet. Gets a rider who has won on this one before and should relish a return. Only question for me is the dirt surface. Barn does win with .15% converting to this surface, but this one has run over a fast dirt track just one time previously. Was 4th that day against MSW likes. Hmmm. Cowan (2) has not been out since March, when he ran in a Group 1 over at Dubai. This guy was once considered to be at the top — or near it — in the 3YO division this year. lRan 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at KEE last November. Ran 2nd in the Springboard Mile. Ran 2nd to Caddo River in the Smarty Jones. Ran 2nd in Saudi Arabia. Lots of 2nds. In 9 career starts, has 1 win and 1 third. But? Has 5 seconds. Gets Lasix for the first time here. May need one, but classy colt. I bet the 9-2 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 9-2 over/under the 1-6-7-8 in two smaller units.
7th: 2-8-9/6-5/3-4-7/1…Devil’s Glen (2) ran 2nd in the career debut at Ellis Park back in late August. Returns here for a top trainer, but one still looking for the first win of this meet. Gets a handy rider in the saddle and this son of Daredevil does have some speed to utilize early and often. Work on Sept. 18 was good enough for this group. Fast Lane (8) is a first time starter for a barn that wins with .18% when debuting in the MSW ranks. Works are super sharp and the home bred is a son of Quality Road. Look out here. Cloudy (9) is my next “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 2YO son of Noble Mission is trained by a HOFer, and is working lights out for this debut effort. Barn wins with only .12% on debut in the MSW ranks, but this one could be the real deal. I bet the 2-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-5 in two smaller units.
8th: 3-2/5-1/7-4-6…G3 Dogwood Stakes…Li’l Tootsie (3) was once considered a possible contender for this year’s KY Oaks. After all, the 3YO Tapiture filly comes with the same connections that gave us the grand Serengeti Empress. But that never materialized. Did run much better when sprinting in the G2 Prioress Stakes at Saratoga last time out. Came with a nice kick there. Gets back here where she has a win in two previous tries. Training better. Like to see this one rev the engines again. My next “Longshot Special of the Day.” Carribean Caper (2) is the even-money favorite, and should be. This one has never lost after 4 trips around the oval. Last time out won a Stakes down at Ellis Park in impressive fashion. Can stalk. Can pounce. Can win. Training great. Lots to like here. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in a smaller unit. More with the 5-1.
9th: 1-4-3/6-7/2-5…Bourbon Trail Stakes…Gagetown (1) is a consistent sort, who has hit the board in 8 of the first 9 career starts. Only miss was a 4th against Jaxson Traveler in the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn Park in late April. This one comes in off a very nice 3rd last time out and has shown the ability to run all day. Stretch out should not hurt. Will grind it. And, grind it. And, grind it. Has a win in only previous run here, too. King Fury (4) should be the horse to beat. Has run here 3 times with 2 wins. But the last two outs — while against G1 competition — were a bit disappointing. Now drops back to G3 level and last time against these types? Was nearly a winner in the G3 Ohio Derby. Will come late. But will be coming. Dr Jack (3) ships over to the Steve Asmussen barn for the first start in the career. Barn wins with .18% of those. This one ran 3 really good ones to begin the career and was 2nd to Mandaloun in the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth back in mid-June. Last two were not good. Toss the grass experiment. Dam of this one was a Stakes winner and the sire is as good as they come. Look for a huge effort here with the meet’s top rider up. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over (only) the 6-7 in a smaller unit.
10th: 7-6-3/1-4/10-2-8/5/9…Harrods Creek Stakes … Irish Unity (7) gets my checkmark here. This 3YO gelded son of Pioneerof the Nile comes in off a huge effort last time out. Has never been worse than 2nd in 4 career starts and has the speed to take this group gate to wire. Cuts back from the route distance to a sprint here, and the barn wins with .23% of those. Look out. Could be long gone. Long. Gone. Shadow Matter (6) is my next “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 3YO son of Macho Uno ran three huge ones to begin the career — including a win here in mid-May. Got tired in the last outing over in Virginia, but the winner that day came right back to win here just the other day, too. Key race. This one has speed and the work on Sept. 19 was spot on. Air time? Bob’s Edge (3) didn’t much care for the turf last time out. A toss for me. Won here two back and was 3rd in the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn Park in April. Class is here. Two wins in two previous tries over this main track. Look out. In career debut? Nearly defeated Mandaloun. Wow. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over (only) the 1-4 in a smaller unit.
11th: 4-9-7/6-8/2-5/1-3…Back to Normal (4) gets the edge in the nightcap. This one is a 2YO son of Liam’s Map and is coming off two solid runs to start the career. Tired in the try at Saratoga last out. Set the fractions and they were way, way, way too fast. Went :21 & change; :44 & change. Will be very tough if he can get off the throttle a bit and save some for the lane. My solid pick here. Chasing Time (9) is a first time starter and cost $250,000 at a 2YO sale earlier this year. Training lights out for this one. Watch out. Brawndo (7) is a sneaky candidate in here. Trainer wins with .18% of those making the 2nd career start and this one ran much better than it looks on debut. “Place” horse came right back to win the next out and this one should improve. Chance. I bet the 4-9 across the board and the box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-8 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene