Days Picks 11 / 2-6-5
2025 Overall — 1667 1667 / 522-590-714
Win % of Top Pick 31.31%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.51%
2025 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,014-1,667 60.83%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @KY Downs — 35-57 61.40%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @COL Downs — 2-7 28.57%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ EP — 90-136 66.18%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 308-500 61.60%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 275-414 66.43%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 106-185 57.30%
2025 Only Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 180-338 53.25%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ PIM — 6-9 66.67%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 5-6 83.33%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ Breeders’ Cup — 10-14 71.43%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ KY Downs — 19-57 33.33%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ COL Downs — 1-7 14.29%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ EP — 44-136 32.35%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ CD — 160-500 32.00%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ HI — 147-414 35.51%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 48-185 25.95%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ TP Winter — 90-338 26.63%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ Pim — 5-9 55.56%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 2-6 33.33%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ Breeders’ Cup — 6-14 42.86%
2025 “Key Plays” @ EP 9/7-0-2 77.78% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Plays” @ KEE — 16/9-1-2 56.25% Win / 75.00% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ TP — 34/ 16-6-3 47.06% Wn / 75.53% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ HI — 60/36-6-8 60.00% Win / 83.33% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ CD — 44/23-6-8 52.27% Win / 77.27% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ Pim — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ SAR — 1/1-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ KY Downs — 3/0-1-1 00.00% Win / 66.67% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup — 1/1-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” Overall — 170/ 95-20-24 55.88% Win / 81.76% ITM

(Stats to be updated with last week’s results)

Here’s our looks for the super racing program crafted by Churchill Downs and its’ esteemed team of racing officials for the “Stars of Tomorrow II” program this coming Saturday afternoon.

In addition to a 12-race card filled to the brim and more with exclusive 2YO races and Stakes, there will be an additional $350,000 paid out to breeders of these horses as Churchill Downs begins a process to build a bigger and better day in the future.

It’s truly amazing what Historical Horse Racing and the tracks have done to convert Kentucky into the premier racing venue in the entire free world. And, this day will be another example of what has happened; what is happening; and what will happen — additionally — in the future.

Stay tuned.

Things are sparking.

1st: 11-1/3-8-5/10-7-9/4…Search Party (11) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louis-Town on this “Stars of Tomorrow II” program — which will feature an added bonus of $350,000 in breeders’ incentive funds. What a day for the 2YOs. What a day for the owners. What a day for the breeders. What a day for Churchill Downs. What a day for the horse industry in Kentucky. And, just stay tuned. This day may be bigger and better than ever — imagine that — in years to come. On this day, though, this daughter of Gun Runner could be popping a good one in the 2nd try at the 11/16-miles. Ran a solid 3rd here at this distance last time out and now returns as a beaten favorite. This barn wins with .27% of the last 405 to do that. One of the meet’s top riders gets the job back. Looks to be a tough out. Glow of a Rose (1) could pose a serious threat, though, if the daughter of Vekoma gets a fast start from the rail and doesn’t get a lot of early pressure. Picks up Joel Rosario back in the saddle. This one showed no speed last time out in the career debut, but did tug like she wanted to run early on. Maybe the connections let her do more of that here and that could work out. I bet the 11-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 11-1 over/under the 3-8-5 in two smaller units.

2nd: (15)-1-(16)/11-10-4/8-7/2-3…This is the first turf race of the day and the weather is not scheduled to move in until later in the afternoon or early evening. If so, here’s hoping the grass races stay on the lawn all day. If so, the leader of this group could come from the AE List and the far, far, far outside. That could be Empire West (15), from the barn of Brad Cox, who is having another stellar meet. This one nearly won at this distance in the career debut in late October. Made a nice late move then. But this post is not easy and going a mile could be too short. Lots of questions here for a short price. Happy Prince (1) does get the big benefit of the post positions, drawing the pole. This one has a ton of speed and should flash it early and often. Gets back on the grass here and looks to be the one to jet fire to the early spot on the rail. Look out. Moluccan (16) is another would could come running late, but this is another compromised by the starting spot. Serious loss of ground possible here. Untethered (11) is a first timer for a barn that knows how to find the winner’s circle and the rider has won with .33% of the last 21 rides for this barn. I use a little here, considering the question marks. I bet the 1-11 across the board — take note — and then key the two of them over/under the 15-16-10-4-8-7 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 12-2-5/8-10-7-11-1/(14)-3…Presumptuous (12) is a homebred daughter of the great stallion Into Mischief and carries the team colors of Godolphin. This gal faltered in the debut at KEE on Oct. 18, but seemed to tire mightily after a sharp break. Gets a huge rider switch for this one and the barn puts the blinkers on today, too. Trainer has won with .17% of the last 143 to add the shades. Rider has won with .21% of the last 57 for this barn, as well. I like. A lot. No Time Left (2) could add some value here. Ran a very nice 2nd when dropping down last time out. Gets a new rider here, who is trying to get back after a bad accident about a month ago. Jockey looks to fit this one perfectly and could move up here. Powered by Family (5) is 10-1 in the Brisnet.com ML and this first time starter goes for a lady trainer who knows how to win. Sharp work on Nov. 23. Looks primed and ready top pop. I bet the 12-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 12-5 over/under the 2-8-10-7-11-1 in two smaller units. 

4th: 2-6-5/4-1/3…Edward Brown Stakes…The first Stakes event of the day is set at 6.5 furlongs for the 2YO colts and I line up with Bobrovsky (2), who is set at a whopping 12-1 in the ML by the fine folks at Brisnet. com — the only place you need to go for all of your handicapping products. I use them. Faithfully. This son of Daredevil has been equally impressive on both dirt and turf for U.S. Senate candidate / trainer Dale Romans. Has raced 4 times with 2 wins; a second and a near-miss 4th. Has Stakes experience. Has raced well here before, too. Like the rider. A lot. A whole lot. I’m going here. Bobby Baffert ships in Boyd (6) for this one and he’s sure to take a lot of betting action. Has an easy win at Del Mar on the resume. Looks to be fast, too. May air them. But a “bet against” for me. I bet the 2 sternly across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 6-5-4-1 in two smaller units. 

5th: 4-9/2-6/5-3-1…It’s Our Time (4) is the even-money favorite here and this one warrants some attention and, perhaps, some action. This son of Not This Time — who is having a monster year at stud — ran in the G1 Champagne last time out. Found the mile that day to be too much, especially after some grilling early fractions. Gets a new rider here and I think this one returns to the form of the career debut — when he won by 17 at Saratoga. Bust Out (9) is 10-1 in the ML and could add some value here. This one was heavily bet in the career debut — when he won easily at Los Alamitos for trainer Michael McCarthy. This one stretches out here and the barn does OK at the first time routing. Former rider of our top pick finds a home here. Interesting. Right? I bet the 4 to win/place and then key the 4 over/under the 9-2-6-5 in the exactas. 

6th: 4-(16)-(13)/11-12-5-6/3…Kentucky Belle (4) is another ML favorite who does look good on paper. This daughter of Justify has all the pedigree and goes for the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning with .26% of the 53 starters this meet. Two starts so far. Two thirds. Back to the grass here and gets the blinkers as the beaten favorite. Jockey has teamed up to go 5-3-3 in the last 19 mounts for this barn. Adds up. Doesn’t it? I bet the 4 here and sternly across the board. Double / Triple down on the win wager. I key the 4 over/under the 16-13-11-12-5-6-3 in the exactas. Like the 4. 

7th: 6-(14)/3-(16)-12-11/(13)-4-8-7-1…Maximum Effort (6) is a son of Maxfield and this one was purchased for a whopping $600,000 at the 2024 KEE September Yearling Sale. Ran a huge 2nd on debut at KEE in October. Gets a new rider here. If this one holds at 3-1 odds? Lock it down. One Reward (14) goes for one of the best young trainers on the circuit these days. This one could improve a lot after a real nice work here on Nov. 24. Worth a look here. Stirring Words (3) goes for the same owners that had the great Barbaro. Toss the first time start. Didn’t like that tough start at all and did no running whatsoever. I think the addition of Flavien Prat here is very interesting. I bet the 6-14, if the AE gets in, across the board. If the 14 does not draw in, I bet the 6-3 across the board. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6-14 or the 6-3 over/under the 16-12-11-13-4 in two smaller units. 

8th: 6-7/8-10-2-1/9/3-4…Fern Creek Stakes…This is the 2nd of 4 Stakes on the card today and this one will be contest at 6.5 furlongs. This one is for the fillies. I go with A Fine Chardonnay (6). This one has won the first two career starts for Ian Wilkes, who is a trainer who notoriously does NOT push his horses early on. If they are this good, this early? It’s on their own volition. And, it means that they are really good. This daughter of Maclean’s Music is really good. Really, really good. I stick. On Time Girl (7) is a Not This Time gal, who ran 2nd behind our top pick last time out. Gave up the lead late in that one going 6 furlongs. Could be tough again today, but the extra distance may not help this one as much. Will be a tough out, either way. I bet the 6 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I box the 6-7 in the exactas. 

9th: 7-9-(15)/11-1-3-8/(16)-(14)…This is a MSW event on the sod for the boys and I go with Instant Impact (7). This son of Upstart comes in off two runner-ups in a row. Will make the grass debut here and the dam of this one has already thrown a grass winner. Conversion should be OK. Kilo Tango (9) is another from the Cox barn and this one will get to the grass for the first time after running on a sloppy surface in the career debut. That one was supposed to be sod, too, so the connections have always wanted to go green. Dam is a Stakes-winner and the barn wins with .31% on the 2nd ask. High Honors (15) could pose a threat, if he draws in from the AE List. Has tremendous speed option and that could add a new dimension here. Best longshot, in my book, though, is Supercharger (11). This is a first timer by Constitution, who can get all kinds of good runners. Work on Nov. 21 is spot on. Look out here. I bet the 7-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7-9 over/under the 15-11-1-3-8 in two smaller units. 

10th: 1-6/4-7/3/5-2…G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes…The first Graded Stakes event of the day and a Kentucky Derby prep event, as well. And, I go with my “Upset Special of the Day” here, too. I go with Spice Runner (1), who draws the rail for HOF trainer Steve Asmussen. This one ran 5th to Ted Noffey in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at KEE in the last out. But this one stumbled at the start and then had to be steadied, as well, in the first turn. One of those things is enough to pull the parachute. Both of them are nearly impossible to overcome — especially against the likes of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner. This one did win the G3 Iroquois here and has two wins in three tries over this surface. Like the new rider choice. Could be coming late in this one and with a real purpose. At 12-1 ML odds? I’m in. Further Ado (6) is the lightning rod son of Gun Runner, who won the MSW event at KEE by a whopping 20 lengths. That was a magnificent performance, no doubt. But he will face tougher here. Also, this one lost to another horse in this field, too. Could be hugely over-bet. Just speculating. Soldier N Diplomat (4) is the horse who did defeat Further Ado. Has 2 wins in 3 career starts and won the last by 9 here the end of October. Will be a tough out, too. I bet the 1-4 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager for the 1. I toss the 6 here and box the 1-4 in the exactas and then key the 1-4 over/under the 7-3-5-2 in two smaller units. 

11th: 6-12/1-13/11-10-9/7-5-2-4-3…G2 Golden Rod Stakes…Life of Joy (6) has won each of the first two outings and has experience over this track. Goes for the Cox barn and this daughter of Gun Runner could be a special one who just may show up here in the big race in May — the G1 KY Oaks. Has speed enough to stay close. Can stalk and pounce, too. Real threat here. My pick. Explora (12) just ran 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for Bobby Baffert. This one will take a huge pop of cash at the windows. But she has not run outside of California, yet. Prat gets the mount. Has class. But vulnerable, for me. I bet the 6 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I key the 6 over/under the 12-1-13-11-10-9 in the exactas. 

12th: 8-11/7-6-(14)/5-12-2-(13)…The finale is a MSW event going 7 furlongs and I go with Cannoneer (8). This one is from the Cox barn, as well. Go figure. This one ran a huge 3rd on debut. Set the fractions that day before tiring late. Gets a new rider up here and the leading rider on the meet. Look out. Could take them wire to wire here. Connections paid $1.75 million for this son of Into Mischief. Dragones (11) is a son of Gun Runner and showed speed before finishing 2nd in the career debut. Should improve off that effort, as well. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 8-11 sternly in the exactas. I key the 8-11 over/under the 7-6-14-5 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene