McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on Sunday, July 3

Stats Now Updated:

Here’s our looks at the action at Churchill Downs for this Sunday “Funday:”

1st: 4-2-7/6/5/1…Nineties Country (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval” in Louisville this Sunday. the 3YO son of Connect drops down more than 2 classes in the claiming ranks and the barn wins with .33% of the last 18 to do that. Should pick up his head in this spot for a barn that wins at a .30% rate this meet after 73 starts. Gets the barn’s go-to rider for the assignment, and he has gone 2-1-0 in the last 4 rides for this trainer. Big Boss Ben (2) could pull the upset in this spot, though. This one drops considerably for this assignment, as well, and the trainer and rider have teamed up to win at a .42% clip in the last 26 trips together. Has never raced for this cheap a ticket before. Hometown Hero (7) broke the MCL last time out and came with a flurry to do so. But loses the rider to the second choice. Hmm. I bet the 4-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

2nd: 3-8/4-2-5/9/7-10/1-6…Azamana Empire (3) gets the blinkers on and adds the blinkers for the first time, as well. And, despite the fact that this one will make the 2022 debut here, this daughter of Classic Empire did run a terrific 2nd in the career opener at KY Downs last September. Must go to the dirt here, and route for the first time, but the meet’s top rider takes the assignment here. Works good enough to encourage a bet. Solid Tune (8) has raced only one time at this distance and has a 2nd on the resume. Ships in from NY for this opportunity and moves to a new trainer for the first time. Chance. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-8 in the exactas. I will key the 3-8 over/under the 4-2-5-9 in two smaller units.

3rd: 2/1/5/3/4…Anchorage Overnight Stakes…This 1-mile event for the fillies and mares draws a skinny crowd, but a talented group, to be sure. I will go with my first “Key Play of the Day” in Li’l Tootsie (2). This 4YO gal ran very well to be 3rd against Sconsin in the G3 Winning Colors last time out. No Sconsin’s in this heat and this one should out-class the rest of these. I bet the 2 across the board and then key the 2 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 1 than the rest of the group.

4th: 5-8/6-2-1/3-4-7…Sweet Beauty (5) has been out now 9 times on the career and is still looking for the first trip to the winner’s circle. But this daughter of Maclean’s Music returns to the same level where she was a threatening 3rd last time out. Returns here as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .25% of those. Cuts back from the route to the sprint here and that could aid the cause. Purrfect Mistress (8) is the ML favorite and may be the horse to beat. This one ran 2nd last time out at the $10,000 level and now moves up to face tougher. Has speed to be stalking. Chance. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-8 in the exactas. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 6-2-1-3 in a rather weak group.

5th: 1-9/2-5-10/3-6-7-11/8-12-(13)-(15)…Offutt Cole (1) was claimed just two starts back and improved at the same level last time out. Barn wins with .11% on the 2nd start in the new outfit. May fit with these. Double Dealer (9) is a first timer for a barn that wins with .15% of those that debut in the claiming ranks. Has a really good work last time out in the a.m. May be ready to best these. I bet the 9 — take note — across the board and then box the 1-9 in the exactas. I will key the 1-9 over/under the 2-5-10-3 in two smaller units.

6th: 4-3/5-7-9/8-10/1-2-6…Red Knobs (4) looks like he could get the 2nd win of the career, even though the barn has struggled for much of the meet and the year, too. This one has run in the money in the last two and catches a rather weak group for this encounter. Chance here. Mount Kenya (3) looks to poise the biggest threat, but must convert from the turf over to the main track here. Barn wins with .10% on this surface change. Veteran rider has had a very solid meet. I bet the 3 — take note — across the board here and then box the 4-3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 5-7-9-8-10 in two smaller units.

7th: 8-6-4/9-2-11/7-1-10/3/5…Legerity (8) won the last time out when she was claimed by the new barn operation. New connections win with .18% on the first time after the purchase. Keeps the same rider, though, and that could help ease the transition. Will face tougher here, with the loss of the condition. Designed by Kitten (6) will make the 2nd start off a layup and the barn wins with .09% of those kind. Drop in class should help. Bizzy Echo (4) goes for a solid barn operation that does well, year in and year out. Won the last time out and keeps the meet’s top rider up, too. Huge threat here. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-4 over/under the 6-9-2-11-7 in two smaller units. 

8th: 2/3/5-4/6-1…Maxfield Overnight Stakes…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with My Prankster (2). This 3YO son of Into Mischief ran a good one against the grand Jack Christopher in the G2 Pat Day Mile last time out and if he can duplicate that effort, he should be able to handle these here. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win bet. I will key the 2 over (only) the 3-5-4-6-1 in the exactas. More with the 3-5-4.

9th: 11-10/7-5-3-6/2-4/1-8/9…A C Expressway (11) won the last time out and loses that condition, but this one may be able to move up the ladder with some credibility, too. In 8 starts here, this one has gone 2-1-0 and has a win and a second in 3 tries at the distance. The field in the Knicks Go Stakes was a bit overwhelming. But fits with these. Strongconstitution (10) will make the 2nd start for the new barn operation after nearly winning a Stakes at Golden Gate Fields in April. Must convert from the AW to the dirt here, but looks like the a.m. works are solid enough to do so. I bet the 11-10 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas.  I will key the 11-10 over/under the 7-5-3-6 in two smaller units.

10th: 11-6/3-4-9-7/5-8/2-1-10-12…Seal Beach (11) must break from the outside and will lose some solid ground in this spot, but the 3YO son of Midshipman did run every well in the 2022 debut and any improvement will push this one to the winner’s circle for the first time. Look at the race three back. Ran against Epicenter. Remember him? I bet the 11 across the board and then box the 11-6 in the exactas. I will key the 11-6 over/under the 3-4-9-7 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene