Total Day Results 8 / 3-3-4
2022 Overall — 875 875 / 308-324-406
Win % of Top Pick 35.20%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.54%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 556-875 63.54%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 149–234 63.68%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 80-234 34.19%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 45/17-12-2 37.78% Win / 68.89% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 109-158 68.99%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 65-158 41.14%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 30/13-3-3 43.33% Win / 63.33% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  166/ 68-37-11 40.96% Win / 69.88% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 6/1-0-1 16.67% Win / 33.33% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 24/5-1-3 20.83% Win / 37.50% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 3/2-0-0 66.67% Win / 66.67% ITM

(Stats to be updated with Friday and Saturday’s results)

Here’s our looks at Churchill Downs for Sunday, with abbreviated comments:

1st: 1-4/3-7/6/2-5…Grace’s Secret (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval.” This 4YO daughter of Cairo Prince will make the 2nd start off the layoff and the barn wins with .12% of those kind. Has a 1-1-1 mark in just 4 starts this meet. Nice. Rider is chilly, but could land a good spot here with the drop in class. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-4 in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 3-7-6 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 2-5/4/3-1…Leslie’s Lady Overnight Stakes…The first Stakes event of the day, and I saddle up with Wicked Halo (2). This 3YO Gun Runner filly ran her eyes out in the G2 Eight Belles. Just caught a monster in there, and that one came right back to win at Belmont Park on Saturday. Look for this one to be a tough customer here with a clean trip. Has had traffic issues each of the last two against Pretty Birdie (5). I will? I will bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-5 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 4-3-1 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 3-2/7-6/1/1A/4-5…(Scratch 1A)…Blame George (3) gets the nod here. Ran well last time out and now stretches out to the distance race. Barn wins with .25% in the 2nd start off the claim and gets a top rider for the saddle job. I bet the 3 (modestly) and then box the 3-2 in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 7-6-1 in two smaller units.

4th: 5-(15)-9/7-(12)-1/2-(13)-4-8/11-3…(Scratch 2-7-12-13)…This comes off the turf and we have several out of the race due to the conversion to the main track. I will line up with Downtown Abby (5), who has raced over a fast dirt track twice before. Has a win and a third. Daughter of Speightstown, who is one of my most favorite sires. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn wins with .28% of those kind. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-15-9 in one exacta. I will key the 5-15 over/under the 9-7-12-1-2 in two smaller units. 

5th: 4-2/5/3-1/6…(Scratch 4)…My top pick is scratched from this one, and that leaves me with only one “A” play for this race — Misty Veil (2). This is a pure speedster and she could run them off their feet early, often and forever. Trainer has been a bit chilly here, but has won nearly everything in sight up at Horseshoe Indianapolis. So, not to worry. This gal has run here 4 previous times with a 1-2-1 mark. I’m in. I bet the 2 across the board and then key the 2 over/under the 5-3-1-6 in the exactas. More with the 5 than the rest.

6th: 6-1-5/7-3-4/11-8/10-2/9…Plausible Denile (6) returns as a beaten favorite and this barn wins with .24% of the last 34 to do that. Ran well last time. Just couldn’t make the lead. Looks well positioned here and the jockey change could help. I bet the 6 across the board and the box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6-1 over/under the 5-7-3-4 in two smaller units.

7th: 6/1/2/10-11-9/8-7-5/12-(13)…(Scratch 13)…Bagboss (6) is my first “Key Play of the Day.” This 4YO son of Speightstown has hit the board in all 7 career starts and ran them off their feet last time out — winning by nearly 4. Runner-up came right back to win the next out. Anything close to that effort will be serious here. Speed. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the 1-2-10-11-9-8 in the exactas. More with the 1. Little less with the 2. Lesser with the rest.

8th: 6/7/4/2-3/1/5…G3 Matt Winn Stakes…Cyberknife (6) was a hot, hot, hot horse coming out of the G1 Arkansas Derby victory and into the KY Derby this Spring. Temperamental sort didn’t take on Derby Day, but that does not mean this one is not ultra talented and can return to form. Looks much the best here with a normal effort and he does have experience here, with 2 seconds in three previous runs. All in here. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under the 7-4-2-3-1 in the exactas. More with the 7 than the rest.

9th: 13-3-15/5-1A/6-1/7/9-12-14…(Scratch 2-4-8-11)…The finale is another turf event turned into a main track event. Several early scratches. More may come. I like Happy Boy Rocket (13) off the AE List. This is a 3YO son of Runhappy and is trained by HOFer Bill Mott, who is having a very solid meet. Ran very well against some tough customers at Oaklawn Park. Coming off a short break, but looks good here. Royal Spirit (3) was nominated to the Triple Crown, so the connections must have thought this son of Into Mischief could run over the dirt. Has never done so yet, but today may be the day. Look out here. Best Actor (15) comes off a layoff for trainer Brad Cox, but this son of Flatter was on the top of his game in the career debut at Oaklawn Park. Has speed. Can burn. Dangerous. I bet the 13-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over the 5-entry in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene