Day Results 11-6-1-5
Churchill 122-41-38-58
Top Pick Win % 33.60%
Top Pick ITM % 71-113 62.80%
Top 3 Picks ITM % 37.40%
2018 Overall 692 Races 256-263-294
Win % of Top Pick 37.00%
ITM % of Top 3 Picks 39.20%
Pimlico / Preakness Day 6-3-3-1
2018 Overall 698 Races 259-266-295
Win % of Top Pick 37.10%
ITM % of Top 3 Picks 39.30%

What a day we had on Saturday. Seriously, one of the best in my career. Out of 17 races we touted on Saturday — between the full card at Churchill Downs and several key Stakes events at Pimlico — we had 9 winners.

But what was more impressive and cash-worthy, were some of our Exacta plays and “Upset Specials.” For example, we had $1 exacta plays that returned $17.80, $31.60, $54.90, $25.40 and we had a major play in the last at Churchill where the winner paid $64.60 across the board for $1 win/place/show wager.

And, of course, there was our highly publicized tout on the Preakness — where we encouraged all to play both Tenfold and Bravazo underneath Justify. That led to a major score in the exacta, trifecta, superfcta, and Super High 5.

A day.

Now, it is time to flip the page, and I don’t feel as strong about today’s card at Churchill Downs. So, as the old timers used to say:

“If you don’t go to the wedding, don’t try to hit the reception.”

But, here we go. And, we do think we have some nice action plays:

1st: 6-1-5-4-3…I concentrate much of my action here on the top 2 picks. Stylitude (6) tired while making the lead and pushing the pace going 11/16 miles at Keeneland in the last effort. Cut back in distance should help her today for a trainer that is absolutely red hot here. Was claimed two back and the trainer hits with .31% of those making the second start off the purchase. I’d prefer another rider, since this one has just one win here in 21 rides to date. But…Triple Kapalua (1) goes for a top notch barn, which is having another outstanding meet here. Gets the blinkers off today and the barn hits with .28% of those returning without the eye goggles. Drops in class and the trainer scores with .29% of those making this kind of plunge. Picks up one of this meet’s historical good riders. Should fit in this company. You Are Invited (5) had a really nice work on May 12 and will be stretching out for the first time. Both should help this 3YO Include filly, who will be making her first start East of the Mississippi. Looks to be acting good, and I like the ML odds. Value play. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I key the 6-1 over the rest of the numbers in a smaller version.

2nd: 5-4-2-3-6-1…I will key on my first “dot” horse of the day in the Honorable Duty (5) in a tough Optional Claimer field. This one loves this track, with a record of 3-2-0 in 7 starts, and has been running in Graded Stakes races over the last 7 starts, as well. Won the G3 Lukas Classic here in an easy romp last Fall, and ran second to the great Gun Runner in the Stephen Foster here before that. The class of this field, without a question. First start of the year, but the trainer does hit with .16% of those returning from this type of layup, and love the work on May 8. Looks ready. Best Bet of the Day — #1. Guest Suite (4) looks to be back on his game and running feet after falling off the Triple Crown trail last spring. He won two races back and then sported a third in the G3 Ben Ali last time out. Will come running very late, and will need some racing luck. But could pick up some pieces late. Futile (2)  did run second in the G3 Hawthorne Gold Cup to a nice one in Scuba last November. Has run OK this year, with spotty success. Not the caliber of the top one, but has a win in only try over this track, as well. I bet the 5  to win/place and then key the 5 over/under all the other numbers listed.

3rd: 1A-8-3-5-7-1…My second “dot” comes right here with Gorgeous Kitten (1A), who drops to the lowest level that I have ever seen. This 4YO Kitten’s Joy colt ran third last time out in his second start of the year and first since February. Trainer hits with .22% of those making the second start off a layoff and hits with .26% of those returning after being beaten as the favorite. Has only 1 win over the turf and none at this distance, but I still think he stands out in this grouping, and, IMO, gets a huge rider switch. Wicked Stride (8) was well behind the top choice in the last out, but was bothered early in that start and didn’t offer much after that. I throw that race out and the previous two were won by horses that have already come back to win again. This one has a win and two seconds at this distance, and I like the jockey change, too. All Right (3) has two wins and two seconds in 9 grass starts. Will be making the 2018 debut after catching a yielding grass that he didn’t like, obviously, and running in a Stakes event. Drops to a career low level and should like this group better. Could be tough off the bench for a trainer that hits with .13% with these layup types. I bet the 1A to win/place/show and then key the 1A over/under all the numbers listed.

4th: 3-2-6-1-4-7…A wide open affair, but I try to stay focused on the top three numbers here in this sequence. Hubbadahbadaboom (3) is a mouthful, but I really like him in this spot today. Going for one of the hottest trainers on the backside right now, who has put up a record of 4-1-1 in just 9 starts. Ran huge before tiring late at Keeneland in just the second start of the year last time out. Now picks up one of the leading riders of the meet, and the work on May 15 was sneaky good. The price tag today is a little steep, but this one could be worth the claim today. Dig Charlie Dig (2) converts back to the dirt today for a trainer that does score with .11% of those making this surface switch. But look at the numbers on this conditioner when he drops one into the claiming ranks for the first time — .29%. Having a good meet here, too, and this one won on the dirt the last time he ran over it. One River Place (6) was claimed last time out and moves up a notch in the claiming game for a trainer that hits with .10% of those making the barn debut. Won the last as the odds-on favorite, and has hit the board in 4 of 6 lifetime tries. Has a shot here. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the top 3 over the rest in a smaller version.

5th: 3-8-6-7-4…Another wide open race, but I will focus my attention on the top 2 numbers here. Fast Girl (3) gets a considerable drop in class for a barn that hits with .33% of those making this significant a class plunge. Was favored the first time she ran back in February, and ran OK on the second start. Regressed against tougher last time out, and now finds the company a little softer. Solid work on May 15. Curable (8) is a well-bred Curlin filly that drops all the way to $10,000 today for the second time in a row. Ran pretty well before tiring late in that one with the blinkers on for the first time. If she can control her speed a little better with the new equipment this time, she may be able to last a little longer, and the furlong shorter today certainly helps, too. Last Tap (6) ran well for awhile before losing her air late in the last one. Drops down after that try to a career low level, as well. Good work over at Keeneland since the last race. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 2 numbers in one exacta. I key the top 2 over/under the rest in smaller versions.

6th: 3-1-4-5-2-7-8…A third straight race where it is hard to find a definitive choice. I concentrate on the top 3 numbers here, led by National Pride (3). This one drops to a career low level for a top barn that has a record of 8-5-2 in 31 starts here. On debut, he was unfortunate to catch the highly-regarded Telekinesis — who subsequently ran a super game second to My Boy Jack in the Lexington Stakes recently. Now, this one — who cost $230,000 to purchase — is up for sale for $20,000. Like the jock change; the drop; and his latest work. My Macho Mon (1) hasn’t found a dry track since February, when he was claimed by these connections. Ran third that day, and showed some promise at a higher level. Good work on May 2 here. Worth a shot with 8-1 ML odds. News Box (4) has two thirds in 5 tries to date, but was purchased for $10,000 last time out. The new trainer hits with .15% of newcomers to the barn, and he adds blinkers for the first time. He scores with .11% of those getting the glasses. Could improve enough today to be close. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 3 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions.

7th: 6-4-5-1-1A-2-8-7-3…I focus on the top 3 numbers in this grouping. Gooleado (6) is another one of Randy Morse’s entries today that I like some. This one ran second at a lower level last time out as the odds-on favorite. Trainer hits with .23% of those returning the next time out. Bobbled and rushed in that one.  And, he won two back, as well. Looks to be good right now, and should fit with these types. Sammy Wonder Stone (4) goes for an under-rated trainer, who has won with .17% this year. She claimed this one last time out, when he ran fourth. New trainer hits with .25% of those on the barn debut — and that’s with 77 runners that fit this category. New rider is super aggressive, and this one worked very well here twice since the claim. Don’t ignore this one at 6-1 ML odds. Archie (5) ships down from Aqueduct for the barn of Bill Mott. Must not have fit his NY program any more. Won two back against higher level company, but lost that condition. Gets one of the meet’s top riders to climb aboard today and can’t dismiss at all. I bet the 4-5 (take note) to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the top 3 over the rest in a smaller version.

8th: 1-6-3-4-8-10-9-7-5-11…One of the toughest races on the card, IMO. That written, I love Mr. Recio (1), in this spot. He will be making the 2018 debut off a consider layoff, but he won at first asking here last September and I think he can run well again off the break. Son of Scat Daddy (he had a pretty good one run on Saturday, too), showed a lot of class in the first two career starts and fell apart a little bit in the third. Something must have happened in that one, since he went on the shelf right after. Don’t really care for the choice of rides — who is super cold right now. But this one has the talent to shine. Get the Facts (6) is a son of Tapit and a homebred for the family of John Oxley. Ran a super second last time out and has been training very well since arriving in Kentucky. Jockey is super hot over the last week, with four wins in eight starts. Will be running late. Dubby Dubbie (3) has recorded three seconds in a row for a trainer who has 3 wins in 5 starts this meet. Gets a new rider and the blinkers off today. Trainer hits with .30% of those taking off the shades. Training well here this Spring, too. I bet the 1-6 across the board in duo action and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the top 2 numbers over the rest in a smaller version.

9th: 2-7-3-4-1-6…I focus on the top 3 numbers here, but definitely led by The Gipper (2). This one is moving up a notch after being claimed last time out by a top new barn operation. The new connections score with .26% of newcomers to the barn, and this guy is red hot right now. Won the last time out and has hit the board in 7 of the last 8 tries. The only time he didn’t, he was off slow and raced wide. Rider who has won with him before gets the mount back today. The choice. Icatiro (7) is hard to type due to spell check. Frustrating. But the horse has talent — with a record of 5-4-3 in just 19 starts. Has a second in one try here. I coming off a tough race last time out, and gets class relief for a barn that has 4 wins in 12 starts this meet. Winner of the last one has already come back to win again. Royal Squeeze (3) is the ML favorite at 2-1, and has a real shot in here, as well. Last time on this track, he won by 31/2 lengths. Super work on May 8. Looks ready. I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the top 3 over the rest in a smaller version.

10th: 11-5-7-10-8-1-4-3-12…Our filly, First Kiss (13) didn’t make the field from the AE List, and we scratched to run another day. That being written, she would have faced some very tough company in this spot. I love Lemon Princess (11) in here today, despite the wide post position. I love her so much I am making her the “dot” and Best Bet of the Day. She ran second to Kentucky Oaks winner Monomoy Girl on debut, and then came back to beat Coach Rocks — the winner of the Black Eyed Susan on Friday — in her second start. Came away with her third second in a row last time out in April. Picks up a top rider in Florent Geroux today. Let’s not mess around any more here. I bet the 11 to win/place and key the 11 over /under all the numbers listed. I also key in all the horizontals that you can imagine and muster.

Good Luck & All the Best/Gene