Day Results 11-3-2-6
Churchill 160-52-49-78
Top Pick Win % 32.50%
Top Pick ITM % 94-151 62.30%
Top 3 Picks ITM % 37.30%
2018 Overall 736 270-277-315
Win % of Top Pick 36.70%
ITM% of Top 3 Picks 39.00%

We got off to a red-hot Saturday, with winners in the first two races, but we stumbled a bit coming home on a card where we thought we had some solid picks. Oh well. Hope for a better day today, on a card that is full of mystery, intrigue, and tough choices.  Good luck and here’s a more in-depth view of what we think on this wonderful Sunday:

1st: 3-4-6-7-1-5…Zippy Lou (3) goes for the barn of Brad Cox, who is starting to heat up after a rather slow start for this Louisville native. He now has a record of 6-4-4 in 29 starts here, for a win percentage of 21%. After winning the Trainer’s Title at the Fair Grounds, he is now getting some of his top horses back in gear, and this looks like one that could add to the list. Drops out of the MSW ranks into the MC class for the first time, and the trainer hits with .24% of those kind. Did run a very game second on debut back in March and picks up a solid rider, who has hit with .33% of his mounts for this barn in the last 12 rides. The pick. Ain’t Dat Sweet (4) caught a good one on debut here last Fall, and has not been seen in the afternoon’s since. Was heavily bet in that debut, and now drops into the MC ranks for the first time. . Has been training steadily for the return, though, and gets a solid rider in the saddle. Trainer scores with .16% of those away from the races this long. Lovelily (6) ran third as the favorite here last time out in the 2018 debut. Should be better this time around and look at the major work on May 17. Trainer hits with .19% of beaten favorites, and top rider sticks. Not a huge fan of Sky Mesa fillies on the dirt, though. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta.

2nd: 1-4-6-3-7…Shezaprado (1) drops significantly out of the G3 where she was never competitive. This was ran for $16,000 just four races ago, but has been in three straight Stakes events since. Looks to have found a spot in-between where she can have some fun again. Love the work at Keeneland on May 22. Looks keen. Front Row Debbie (4) has only 1 win in 19 previous starts, but has 6 seconds and 5 thirds. So what do you do? You play her underneath. Right? This one broke the maiden just three back and now finds a better spot, with improvement expected on a more firm ground than the last. Kitten’s Slew (6) ran a very credible race in the 2018 debut and should improve off that exercise. Trainer hits with .20% on the second start off this kind of layup. Gets one of the coldest riders on the grounds, though. Pause. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then  box the top 3 contenders in the exacta.

3rd: 2-5-6-8…Seeyouatthedisco (2) is the 8-5 ML favorite, and appears to be the one to beat in a wide open affair. This 7YO mare has not run a race since last April — as in 2017. But she went to the bench off 6 straight finishes where she was either first or second at the wire. Has hit the board in 24 of 34 lifetime starts, and banked over $224,000 in a nice career. Like the training up to this debut, and has run well fresh in the past. Interesting choice of rides here, though. Prom Theme (5) gets a double drop in class after a tiring fourth in the last out. Before that, this 9YO mare had hit the board in four straight with three wins. Trainer having a super year with .29% winners out of 48 starts. Lanerie jumps aboard. Watch out. Don’t Tell Mom (6) and Bill’s Wealthygirl (8) both look like they could have aa shot, as well, with upset potential. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I key the 2-5 over/under the 6-8 in lesser versions.

4th: 1-9-2-7-6-5…Spanish Mane (1) was claimed two starts back by one of the claiming games best connections. Ran second at Indy in the first off the purchase, and the trainer hits with .36% of those running for the second time with the barn. Looks prominently placed in this spot, and could pop the cork today with a top rider getting up for the first time. Leo Meister (9) had a super work on the morning of May 24 — just three days ago. Veteran trainer knows how to win races, and does so with .25% of those returning after a loss as the betting favorite. Son-in-law takes the reins, and they could be salty in this spot. Dynamic Response (2) goes for the barn of Mike Maker, who hits with .23% of those in the MC ranks. Nice works at Indy and look at the “comment line” in the PPs. “Cut off” in the last one. Could improve with a cleaner trip. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta.

5th: 1-3-7-5-8-6-4…I like the rail position today, and go back there in this spot with Tres Equis (1). This 3YO Stay Thirsty colt was nominated to the Triple Crown and now finds himself in a race for $8,000 price tag. But he won three races back and ran really well for $30,000 at Keeneland in April. Super work on May 22 at Keeneland, as well. If he can duplicate those two efforts, he should air in this spot today. A claim prospect for sure. Halifax (3) will not be an easy foe to dismiss, though. He comes into this one off a 31/2-length win at Indy in the first start off the claim two back for a top claiming operation. Has hit the board in 5 of the first 9 races. Looks good right now. Pontastic (7) gets the career drop for the barn of Steve Asmussen — who hits with .22% in these spots. Ran a nice one in the slop at the Fair Grounds two back against much tougher. Looks to be for sale today. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box those two solidly. I key the 1-3 over the rest in a smaller version.

6th: 3-4-2-5-6-7…Saracosa (3) gets her second career start after running a game and closing third on debut at Keeneland in late April. Has worked good since that outing, and was well bet in the first try, too. Well bred sort, with a top rider aboard. Trainer hits with .19% of those making the route race for the second time. Area (4) has run three solid races to start her career. Has been the beaten favorite in the last two. After a short break, she returns for a trainer who is 0-for-23 this meet. Rider who guided this one two a runner-up spot two back returns to the saddle. Nice work on May 21. La Fee Verte (2) moves back up in class after two solid seconds in a row at MC ranks. Well bred filly nearly pulled off the win on the lead last time out. That was a new strategy that may be employed again today after that near success. Solid work since that race. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

7th: 9-8-4-3-5-7-2…A really good race here on the short grass course. I go to Platinum Prince (9) despite the outside post. He looks to have the necessary stalking speed to get away clean and save some ground and had a nice work here on May 22. Has not run since Jan. 1, but the trainer can win with this type of layup (.12%), and is is red, red, red hot with a record of 8-1-1 in just 19 starts here this meet. That adds up to .42% win rate. This guy has a 3-3-3 record in 17 starts at this distance, too. Adds up for me. Kissthatbabygoodby (8) is an expert at this specialty race. He has hit the board in 13 of 14 starts on the grass at this short distance. Has been running against much, much tougher and nearly hit the board in a Stakes event just two back. Trainer is super talented, so don’t let the current meet numbers fool you. Gets the meet’s leading rider back in the saddle for this one. Sonoma Crush (4) is 10-1 ML odds and has a shot in returning to the grass after a try on the dirt. This trainer is hot, as well, with 4 wins in 6 starts this meet. Can’t dismiss for me. I bet the 9-8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta.

8th: 5-1-4-6-3-2…Laney (5) is a horse that has been on my “Horses to Watch” list for quite some time. She will be making the 2018 debut today, finally, and comes in off a super work here on May 23. Hope she didn’t leave her “A” game on the practice field, but this one ran third in the G2 Eight Belles Stakes here last Spring after running third in the G3 Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland. Has hit the board in 8 of 14 previous starts and looks ready for the return to the races for a trainer that scores with .13% returning from this type of a layoff. True Boots (1) and others in this race can motor, too, though, and it will not be an easy return for the top pick. This one comes in off two straight seconds — and the horse two back has already come back to win again. Although this one has only 1 win in 13 starts, she does have 4 seconds and 2 thirds to her resume. Abounding Joy (4) was super impressive in breaking her maiden last time out at Keeneland as the favorite. Really nice work at Keeneland on May 15. Could come running again. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.

9th: 8-5-1-11-12-9-6-3-2…A super nice race to finish the day, and I go to Upset Brewing (8), who is listed at 6-1 in the ML odds pool. This talented filly has only one win in the first 11 starts, but she has 6 seconds and 2 thirds to her credit. And, she has run up against some good ones. Some really good ones. She has been in 6 Stakes events in the first 11 races. Although this field is no slouch, she looks primed after a nice work on May 20 by one of the best trainers and horsemen on the backside of any racetrack in this country. The man simply knows how to take care of a horse and get it ready to run. She looks ready. Quick Quick Quick (5) is 10-1 ML and has a big shot in here, too. This one has not run since last October at Keeneland, but is training very well for a top notch trainer, too, and he is having a super meet so far with 8 winners in the first 38 mounts. This one broke the maiden on second ask at Saratoga last summer. I use. Hint of Mint (1) is 6-1 ML odds, and another who has a lot of upside potential. She broke the maiden here by nearly 5 on second ask last October. She was put away for the winter after a fourth, and is making the 2018 debut today. But she had a super work here on May 15 and the trainer scores with .18% on the return to afternoon activity off this type of layup. This one cost $150,000 as a yearling, and that may turn out to be a bargain yet. Talent appears to be there in abundance. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the top 3 over/under in a smaller version. And, I key the 8 over/under in two more. Going for broke here.

Good Luck & All the Best/Gene