|Day Results||11/ 3-3-4|
|2020 Overall 595||595 / 209-193-234|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.13%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.63%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –377-595||63.36%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Spring-Summer: 61-103||59.22%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Spring-Summer: 33-103||32.04%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Spring-Summer:8-3-2-2||37.50% Win / 87.5% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 80-25-19-12||31.25% Win / 70.00% ITM|
(Gene in Iceland. Still “cold” in Kentucky. Hoping for a warm front on the selections)
Another woeful day at the big oval under the Twin Spires. Disappointing day, to be sure. Such high expectations. Such low results.
After starting the day with 2 winners in the first 3 races, we thought we were back on track and hunting a good performance. Yet, we managed just one winner out of the next 8 events.
We had 5 exactas that returned $30.00, $7.00, $12.50, $53.80 and $15.70 for each $1 played. Helped ease and numb some of the pain.
But we are back. Hoping to kick start the next week with a fresh look.
Here’s a glance at our Sunday picks:
1st: 7-6-2/1-4-5…Skamania (7) ran well in the 2020 debut, but has not been out since February. Trainer does well overall, but can get them ready off the bench, and this one has 2 wins over this track. Figure It Out (6) is another speed ball that looks to force an early pace with our top pick. Gets a speed rider for the first time under the new barn operation. Trainer hits with .12% of newcomers. Straitouttapopcorn (2) is a definite closer and offers great value. Upset Pick of the Day. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box the top 3. I bet the 7-2 over/under the numbers in two smaller versions.
2nd: 4-5-1/3-7/2…Here’s Carlos (4) is another Upset Pick of the Day. Will be closing late and was gaining on Strong Yen (1) last time out. Extra distance should help this one, who has a win and a second at this distance. Crush It (5) is a Maryland-bred son of Not for Love and will make the first start for Joe Sharp. Trainer hits with .12% of the newbies. This one has three 3rds in a row and has finished 3rd 6 of the last 7 races. Should bet to “show,” right? Will be closing and that style may work best in this one. Strong Yen (1) comes off a win here on May 16. Has the speed to gas to the front. Yet, will stretch out to 7 furlongs today and that may test this one’s stamina a bit more, especially with speed to his outside, too. Vulnerable? I bet the 4-5 across the board and box the top 3 in the exacta.
3rd: 12-2/6/10-3-8-7…This one figures to be a showdown between the top two numbers, with a slight shot for the third pick. But I will focus on Rocko’s Wheel (12). This one ran poorly last time out and wasn’t within the same zip code as the winner at the wire. But if you go back three races, you will see a nice win at a tougher level than here. Will be coming late and has some nice back class for a trainer that hits with .27% in the claiming ranks. Yes I See (2), who comes into this one off a nice win at Gulfstream Park on April 20. Drops off that win and gets a new trainer for this one. Like the rider choice, who is hitting at .16% this meet. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then box the 12-2-6 in one exacta.
4th: 6-9-10/4-5/8-1/2…What a nice event for the first grass race of the day. These gals will go 11/16-miles over the sod and I will go with His Glory (6). Are you kidding me. It’s Sunday and we have a horse named His Glory? Have to play this hunch, and this one has a serious run to her, too. Will get the saddle for the first time from a new barn — that wins with .26% with newcomers. Also, first time grass. Barn hits with .29% of those, too. This one ran 2nd in the G2 Pocahontas Stakes last year. Has talent. Ginseng (9), who hails from the barn of Brad Cox. This one has run 2nd the last 3 times out and has some very tactical speed figures, to boot. Never hit the board in 2 tries at the distance, though. Question mark. Hey Kitten (10) has been running against much tougher. In fact, was 8th in a G3 just two races ago. Now, she is dropped in for $50,000. Should figure here. Deep closer. Gets a good late rider up. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3. I will also key the top 3 over/under the 5-4. Do not leave the 5 out. Could be a huge price here and has a shot with return to the sod.
5th: 3-8-9/1-6/7-4…Paris Lights (3) ran a good one on debut at Gulfstream Park on April 26. Came with a bit of a late run, although no match for the winner. Gets a route today and that should help. Barn hits with .17% of those doing that for a first time. Also, barn hits with .15% making the 2nd career start. Experience never hurts. Glamour Girl (8) has run 7 times so far with a second and 4 thirds. Will come late, but may get a little more encouragement early on front a jockey known to do his best work on the front end. Interesting rider choice. Jeweled Princess (9) has two 2nds and a third on the resume after the first 5 starts. Has shown a willingness to run late, but has done best running over a sloppy track, too. Plea (1) may be this race’s surprise. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-8-9-1 in one small exacta. I will key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed.
6th: 11-4-9/8-6-1/10-5…A MCL event going the sprint distance of 6 furlongs. Of those that have started so far, the best “on paper,” appears to be the ML favorite — Every Single Day (11). This one has drawn to the outside, and truly doesn’t show a lot of speed in the previous 9 races. Shows a tendency to close. Will need all the guile of veteran James Graham here, but does have a second and 3 thirds on the resume. That’s more than anyone else in here. Annie’sgoldengirl (4) will be making the career debut for a trainer that hits with .25% of those making the debut in the MCL ranks. Has won with .10% of 84 starters this year, too. Hot rider gets the reins. Shot. I bet the 11-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11-4 over/under the 9-8-6-1 in two smaller versions.
7th: 8-9-1/6-7-5/10-12/3-11…Wide open affair here, but with the way that trainer Robertino Diodoro is going these days, it’s hard not to put on top in any race that he has a horse entered. Cold Smoke (8) is moving up off a win in a $40,000 MCL event last time out at Oaklawn Park on April 16. That was the first race for the new connections after being claimed off Brad Cox. The horse moved up in class and went from losing by 3 to winning by 51/2. Wow. May just do it again here. Reelfoot (9) is a horse claimed and now trained by Steve Asmussen. Ran 4 solid races in a row until the last one. May be a force late in this one. Yamano Maker (1) drops in class and will get the 2nd start off a considerable layup. Goes for a barn that wins with .17% on the second try. Look for more out of this one with a HOF rider up. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 2-3/1-7-12/6-4-9/8-5…Witez (2) ran a “better-than-looks” 5th in the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes last time out. Had to negotiate in and around a bit against a stellar crowd. Took aim and couldn’t finish, but lost by less than 3 that day. The race before, she nearly won. Could be the perfect spot today for a barn operator who knows how to win races. My choice. Ella Brilla (3) looks to be an improving sort and the 3YO daughter of Kitten’s Joy has a right to be the PT favorite here. Gets a HOF rider up today and will be running on or near the lead today. Toss the last out. Steadied in the early stages last time out and lost all tactical advantage. Could be a tough out. I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 1-7-12-6-4-9 in two smaller versions.
9th: 2-7-5/9-4-1A-1/3-8-6…Royal Flag (2) has not faced much company in the first few races. And, it shows. Has won the last two by a combined 17 lengths. Will face some comp today, though, and we shall see what this 4YO daughter of Candy Ride is made of. My guess is that she is made pretty good and pretty tough. Has speed to utilize and locate a good spot. Gets a HOF rider up. And, has worked good since arriving here. Should be interesting. Saracosa (7) is coming out of a G1 event at Oaklawn Park, where she was beaten less than 4 lengths. Before that, she ran 3rd to 2019 KY Oaks winner Serengeti Empress. In 4 starts here, too, she has 2 seconds and 2 thirds. The one to beat. I bet the 2 to win/place. May add a win/place bet on the 7, too. Depending on price points. I box the top 3 in the exacta.
10th: 12-4-1/2-10-11/7-5-8…Wide, wide, wide open affair to finish the day. I go to the far outside and grab onto a possible Upset Special of the Day — Cleveland Simpson (12). This 3YO son of Hard Spun made the debut in January at Gulfstream Park. Ran a nice 2nd that day for a $75,000 tag. May have been a bargain. Has been off since, but the trainer can get them ready off the bench and the barn hits with .50% of those when moving up from a MCL event to a MSW ranks. Win d’Oro (4) is 6-1 in the ML, too, and could surprise. Race last time was a winner. But steadied, checked and had all kinds of trouble. Still was 3rd. Look at this replay. Wow. I bet the 12-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 12-4 over/under the 1-2-10-11-7 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene