|Day Results||10 / 2-6-4|
|2020 Overall 1501||1501 / 528-508-638|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.18%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.18%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –974-1,501||64.89%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 33-51||64.71%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 17-51||33.33%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 5-2-0-0||40.00% Win / 40.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 199-68-44-27||34.17% Win / 69.85% ITM|
A rather weak day on Saturday. Just two winners out of the 10 races carded at the world’s best racing venue.
But we did manage to salvage the day in the exacta box. We hit for exactas that returned $17.10, $13.80, $69.80, $23.70, $6.80, $88.80 and $9.30 for each $1 played. Hope you scored a little “juice” there for use later this week.
Here’s hoping that we find a nugget or two today and head into the Breeders’ Cup with a little mojo and a few more buck to spare:
1st: 2-1-5/3-4…Moonoverseba (2) drops all the way to the $32,000 price tag today for the first attempt in the claiming ranks. Has not been out since February, too. Oh, what a glorious time that was. Remember? But the barn can score off the bench — winning with .18% away on vacation this long. Has been training very well. And, gets the meet’s top rider. Adds up for me. Rare Form (1) used to be in very good form. Doesn’t seem to be there right now. Drops to a career low price tag today after another disappointment last time out. Has the back class. Has ability. And, has the resume over this track — going 2-1-0 in 7 starts here. But needs to rebound quickly. Greeley and Ben (5) has been a different horse since moving to the barn of John Ortiz. Has a win and a nice third — both up at Indy Grand. Returns as a beaten favorite today, and the barn wins with .19% of those. And, drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, too. Barn wins with .16% of those. Chance here. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
2nd: 6-4-3/2-5/1…Gesture (6) drops to half the price tag that she ran for last time out and the barn wins with .25% when falling this much at once. Gets a top jock back in the irons, and one who has won with .25% of the last 56 mounts for this operation. Barn having a nice meet, winning at a .21% clip, too. Looks tough in this spot. Queen of Verona (4) is another from the barn of Ortiz. This one dropping considerably in the class ranks, too. Barn wins with .21% falling this much. Has a win in two tries here. Bet Your Bankroll (3) gets a huge drop in class for this one, after being off since March. Barn does NOT do well with the return effort, but this one has a closing kick that could prove serious. Worth a look here with a veteran rider up. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 3-2-5-1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-2/10-6/4-7…OFF TURF…Scratch the 1 (our top pick)-11-12-13…This event has been moved from the sod over to the main track, and it suddenly becomes a dart game. I will stick with my original numbers, after my top pick was scratched. Clarestown (3) is a 2YO son of Speightstown — and he is one of the top stallions in the world, in my book. Can throw you all kinds of winners — including sprinters over the dirt. This one has two good runs under the girth and looks ready to pop for an underrated trainer. Name Rejected (2) cost $105,000 to purchase at a 2YO sale earlier this year. Ran poorly on debut at KEE in October, but one could expect more today at a nice price. Why the optimism? Rider is super good. Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters. And, the trainer wins with .35% when taking the blinkers off. This guy knows how to find a winner’s circle. My first Longshot Special of the Day. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box these 2 in the exacta. I will key them both over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two shorter units.
4th: 6-5-4/1-3…La Femme Royale (6) will get her 2nd start off an extended layoff today, and should be much better fit for a trainer that wins with .08% coming back for the 2nd time. Barn knows how to win, though, and is highly unrated. Has won with .20% of the 91 starts this year. This one won three in a row back at the first of the year before going to the sidelines. Has talent. Look out. Honey Parade (5) won two races back here before moving up the scale. Didn’t fare well last time out, but back where she probably belongs today. I can toss the last one and the rider is having a very solid meet. Has speed to be very dangerous. Hetty G. (4) will make her first start for a new owner/trainer who claimed her last time out. That was her 2nd win in a row and she has to face much, much tougher in here. Has speed to be dangerous, but the class jump has me a little worried. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-5 over/under the 4-1-3 in two smaller units.
5th: 5-4-3/2-1-6…This is a MCL event for the 2YOs, and I will take a swing here with Storming Lion (5). One of the best young trainers in the game today will tighten the girth on this one, and he wins with .29% of those dropping from the MSW ranks into the MCL level for the first time. Moves from turf to dirt, too, and the barn wins with .22% of those getting this surface switch. Working good. My pick. Beeboo (4) goes for the barn of Brad Cox, and he, too, will be dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time. Barn wins with .29% of these kind. Working well. Jockey has teamed up to go 7-4-2 in the last 20 rides for this barn. Had all kinds of issues at the gate last time out. Look out here. Hoistthemainsail (3) is a name after my own heart. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, like the top 2. Barn wins with .18% of these. Has worked very well of late and he moves from the turf over to the dirt, as well. Barn wins with .18% off those making this switch. Chance. I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the next three numbers in a shorter unit.
6th: 7-2-4/5-1A-1/10…OFF TURF…Scratch the 2b (our 3rd pick)-8 (our top pick)-10…Brazillionaire (7) will be making the career debut for trainer Chad Brown in this spot. Won’t be on the grass, as they had expected and hoped, but this one is by Candy Ride — and he can throw a winner over any type of surface. Connections paid a handsome $875,000 at the 2018 KEE Sept. Yearling Sale. Probably anxious to start recouping some of the investment. Rider has won 4 of the last 7 for this barn and the works are good enough to indicate some talent. Briefcase Bully (2) will stick in this spot for the trainer, who entered two of them. I preferred the other part of the entry, but this son of Union Rags has shown some ability in two of the first three outings. Should be fitter for this one and the works are solid enough. Carmichael (4) has a chance here, too. This guy threw in a bad one over a wet-fast tack at KEE in July. But has shown some run on both the slop and the turf. I look for more here today. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
7th: 9-8-2/6-3/7-1/5-4…Unitedandresolute (9) has never missed the board in the first 4 races for trainer Tom Amoss. The 2YO son of Violence has a second and three 3rds on the resume. Gets a new rider here for this one, and it just so happens to be the meet’s top jock. Works good. Has shown ability to race on or near the lead or come from off it some. Graduation day for me. Swot Analysis (8) is a first timer for the barn of Mark Casse, who wins at a .16% clip with those making the career debut. Works solid and nice. Could be a nice Longshot Play of the Day. Convention (2) is another making the debut here. Winchell Thoroughbreds races a lot of good ones and they paid handsomely for this son of Constitution. Be interesting to watch this one in action. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units. My first: Key Play of the Day.
8th: 1A-2-7/4-1-3-5/6…Answer In (1A) is a 3YO gelded son of Dialed In and a pupil of the talented Brad Cox. Has a 1-2-1 mark in the first 5 outings and had all kinds of issues in the last start — which was way back in April at Oaklawn Park. Ran up against Silver Prospector down there and that one came back to score a nice win here this week, too. I look for a huge performance out of this one today. My 2nd Key Play of the Day. I bet the 1A across the board and then key the entry over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 2-7 than the others.
9th: 8-2-4/3/6…OFF TURF…Scratch 1-7…This is yet another turf event that will be moved to the main track. Dart time. But I give the edge to Romantic Pursuit (8). This one gets the blinkers for the first time, and the barn wins with .11% of them. Has raced over a fast dirt track 3 times in the career. Has a 2nd and a 3rd to show on the resume. Gets the meet’s top rider up. My pick. Cash Out (2) has raced over the main track 5 times. Has 2 seconds and a third. Two back, he ran 2nd here when the raced was moved off the sod. The one to beat, IMO. Golden Curl (4) has a 1-1-1 mark in 4 tries over the fast main track. Ran 3rd here in June over it. Has speed and could be dangerous on the front end. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-6 in two smaller units.
10th: 8-7-6/10/1-3-9…Today’s finale is a MCL even t for the 3YOs & Up — which includes a 5YO horse making the career debut. Now, that is perseverance. I go with Fugitive (8). This one drops to half the asking price since the last outing, and he nearly won that one. May be a nice claim prospect for the upcoming Turfway winter meet. By a nice stallion that can produce winners over any surface type. Worth a look for the bargain shoppers. Jack Luvs Nova (7) goes for a trainer who has won .24% here this meet. Drops another rung in the claiming ladder and ran 2nd last time out. Has been facing tougher. Another claim prospect for the Turfway Park training colony. Chance here. Smart Call (6) ran 2nd at this level last time out. Barn is winning at a .23% rate this meet. Works good. Chance, too. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene