Total Day Results 11 / 5-5-7
2021 Overall 1,675 1675 / 631-602-798
Win % of Top Pick 37.67%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.42%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,135-1,675 67.76%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 67-101 66.34%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 30-101 29.70%
“Key Horses” @ CD 11/5-1-0 45.45% Win / 54.55% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 253/ 115-55-24 45.45% Win / 76.68% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ CD 7/0-0-1 00.00% Win / 14.29% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0 19.05% Win / 23.81% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

Here’s a look at our Sunday “looks:”

1st: 4-6/5-1-3…Miacomet (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on the Sabbath. This 3YO son of Flatter will make the first start for the new barn operation and the newest naturalized American citizen. Congrats to the young trainer. This one ran 4th on debut for the embattled Bob Baffert. The “Place” horse that day came right back to win the next outing. Has since been sent to KY and has been training OK for the first start East of the Mississippi. Barn wins with .24% in the second career start and gets a rider who does well for this barn. Look for more out of this one here. Sonic City (6) may be the horse to beat. Gets a return of the main rider for this barn, which wins with .17% on the 2nd start off the layup. Rider has gone 6-6-1 in the last 16 starts with this trainer. Wow numbers. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box both of these in the exactas. Sternly. I will key the 4-6 over (only) the rest of the numbers in a smaller unit.

2nd: 2-4/5-3-6/1…In Sky We Trust (2) goes for one of the most talented young ladies in the sport today. This one didn’t fire in the slop last time out, and it is supposed to rain much on Sunday. But this one won the two previous races and three of the previous four. Does have a win over an “off track,” as well. Look for this one to be a tough out at this level. Long Term Thinking (4) was claimed last time out and now drops off the purchase. This barn wins with .14% of those making the first start since the purchase. In 3 starts here, has a second and a third. Has 4 seconds in 4 previous tries over an “off track.” Interesting. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then key the 2-4 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in a smaller unit.

3rd: 9/8-5-4-1/3-6/7/2…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Dance On Over (9), who hails from the barn of the talented Tom Amoss. This 3YO Tapiture filly drops from the $25,000 level all the way to the $10,000 tag. At this same level, she ran 3rd while going wide just two starts ago. Barn wins with .36% when dropping this much at once. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then key the 9 over/under the 8-5-4-1-3-6-7 in two units. More with the 8-5-4-1.

4th: 3-2/6-5-1-7/4…Sum Kinda Pretty (3) is a 3YO filly by Summer Front and comes in here off a claim and win last time out. New barn operator wins with .17% on the first try and this one also won at Saratoga just three starts ago. Work at Turfway Park on Nov. 6 was solid. Could make it back-to-back. Trumpet Lily (2) is another from the Amoss’ barn and you can toss the last one, when she was just overmatched. Gets the claiming ranks here and the barn wins with .26% of the last 538 to qualify for that ranking. Work on Nov. 4 was good and this one looks well placed. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over (only) the 6-5-1-7-4 in a smaller unit.

5th: 6/3-4/5-1/2…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with American Mandate (6). Like the fact that this one is 4-1 in the ML odds, too. This 5YO horse has raced here 4 times. Has 3 seconds and a third. In 8 starts over an “off track?” This one has 4 seconds and 3 thirds. Barn wins with .20% on the 2nd start off the layup and with .21% of those moving from the sod to the main track, too. Last time on dirt. Winner. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 3-4 than the rest.

6th: 4/7-10-8/5-3/2-1…The third “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Back to Normal (4). The 2YO son of Liam’s Map has not raced since Sept. 25. But the barn wins with .16% when away this long and this one ran a very nice 3rd to Howling Time in that last effort. Truthfully, Howling Time has been the most impressive 2YO in the country this year — to me. And, I think this one has a tremendous chance to step up and join the winner’s club here. I bet the 4 to win/place and then key the 4 over/under the 7-10-8-5-3 in two units. More with the 7-10-8 than the others.

7th: 8-7-1/11-4-6/3-9/2-10/5…Drena’s Star (8) is another from the barn of Mike Maker, who could have a huge Sunday afternoon. This one was claimed last time out and the barn wins with .14% of those that make the barn debut. In 7 starts over an “off track,” this one has a 2-1-1 mark and this one will pick up the services of Tyler Gaffalione here. That jockey just won 6 races. On Friday. Alone. Machismo (7) has run two seconds in a row after winning 4 in a row. This one has hit the board in 7 straight and 9 out of the last 10, too. Consistent sort should like this distance better and has gone 6-3-2 in 13 starts at this length. Look out here. Alexandros (1) won the last time out over our #2 pick here. But they shorten up to 6 furlongs here and that could make a huge difference in this battle. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 1-11-4-6-3 in two smaller units.

8th: 6-8/1-5/4/2-3/7…Baladi (6) is a 2YO son of Pioneerof the Nile, and this homebred for Godolphin Stables has a chance to be a true good one. Won the debut by nearly 6 and then went shopping for Stakes wins in the Arlington Washington Futurity over the AW at Arlington Park. Ran well, but just couldn’t muster the late run. Ran well last time out and now gets blinkers for the first time here. Barn wins with .13% of those. Return to the sprint distance may help here. Home Brew (8) will make the first start for the new barn, which wins with .26% of those moving up to face winners for the first time. Rider choice is interesting. The “Place” horse came right back to win the next out in this one’s debut win. Interesting type here. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 6-8 over/under the 1-5-4-2-3 in two smaller units.

9th: 8-1-6/10-7/11-9/5-2-4…What a nice MSW event this one could turn out to be. I saddle up with Fast and Flirty (8), a 2YO daughter of Into Mischief. Ran a nice 2nd on debut at KEE on Oct. 15. That was over a sloppy track, too. Gets a huge rider switch here and could be coming late in this one. Jaccaci (1) is my “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 2YO daughter of Gormley has run two 4ths, but both of them much, much better than it looks on paper. Gets a rider switch here and could be a tough out in this spot. Like the odds, too. Barn wins with .19% making this surface switch. Coco Puff (6) is another longshot possibility. This one ran a real good one last time out at KEE on oct. 10. Should benefit from that effort and the barn wins with .13% on the 2nd try at a route distance. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 6-10-7-11-9 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene