|Day Results||10 / 3-4-4|
|2020 Overall 1559||1559 / 548-529-671|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.16%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.37%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,011-1,564||64.64%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 63-100||63.00%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 31-100||31.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 15-6-1-3||40.00% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 212-75-45-30||35.38% Win / 70.75% ITM|
(City of Light — the most beautiful Thoroughbred I have ever, ever, ever seen (honestly) — plays for the camera. You can catch his act at Lane’s End Farm in Versailles.)
There were 11 races carded on Saturday at the big oval in Louisville. After the grass races were emptied out onto the main track, there were a significant number of scratches…as one might suspect.
But there were so many scratches in the 4th race on Saturday — including our top 4 picks — that while Churchill Downs went ahead and raced it on the dirt, we took the race off.
So…in essence…we had 10 races that we handicapped on Saturday…
And, we ran up 3 winners and four tiny exactas. We did manage to sweep the last Pick 3 on the card and eek out a few bucks to salvage the day. Now, we will attempt to close out the weekend with some winners and a few more bucks in our pocket. Here’s a look:
1st: 4-5/2-3/1…Rye Humor (4) ran a huge one last time out at KEE on Oct. 8. Came with a late rally to just miss at the wire of that 7-furlong event. Rider has teamed up with this barn to go 2-1-1 over the last 6 tries. This one looks ready to pop the cork. Extreme Force (5) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time for a barn that wins with .19% when that happens. This will be the 2nd start for the new barn operation, after picking this one up earlier this year. Last start was “better-than-looks” — considering the long, long layup. If he improves off that first start back, look out. Does have some speed that he can flash early and often. Rider has never been hotter. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-5 in one exacta. I key those 2 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in a smaller unit.
2nd: 1-2-7/6-4/3-8…Abramax (1) drops back to the $10,000 price tag today after running a nice third against much tougher last time out. Over the last 4 races, this one has been right there at the wire — with a couple of wins in the mix. Has a win in only previous try here and the trainer knows how to spot them. One to beat. Shilah Baby (2) drops in class for this one, too, and ships in from Cleveland. Barn wins with a whopping .27% this year in 48 starts and at a .29% clip when making the 3rd start off a layup. Gets a veteran in the saddle here and has a 1-1-1 mark in 5 starts over this strip. Chance. Frills (7) was claimed last time out for $20,000 and now shows up for $10,000. Need a bigger truck. But the barn wins with .17% when dropping off the claim and with .11% making the first start after the purchase. Can run on the front end and has a 2nd in only previous try here — over a “good” track. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed in two shorter units.
3rd: 6-9/7-4-5-8/3…Outlier (6) is the ML favorite and surely looks to be the one to beat. Ran a solid 2nd last time out and now drops farther down the MCL ranks. Barn wins with .22% at this level and the rider has teamed up with his go-to trainer for a 7-3-1 record in the last 26 mounts together. I saddle up. Clearly Mad (9) drops another rung in the claiming game, as well. In the first 3 career starts, has a couple of thirds to show on the resume. Barn wins with .21% that return as a beaten favorite, too. Barn has gone 2-3-0 in the last 5 outs. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then hammer down on the 6-9 exacta box. I will key the 6 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
4th: 4-6-3/2-1/5…Sounion (4) will get the Lasix for the first time and this barn wins with .16% when getting treated with the anti-bleeding medication. Worked a bullet here on Nov. 7 — indicating that this one is sharp as a tack. In 6 previous runs, has hit the board 5 times, too. Broke the maiden here in November 2019 over a sloppy track. Right at home today. Letmeno (6) has only 1 win in the first 11 starts, but has faced some good ones along life’s journey. Lost to Dennis’ Moment, King Guillermo, Governeur Morris in three of them. Has speed. And, can use it. Barn wins with .17% off this kind of a layoff and may improve with the shorter distance here. Chance. Santos Dumont (3) is another pupil of the HOF trainer Steve Asmussen. Not much to show in the last race, but that was coming off a huge vacation. Should be more ready today and the barns wins with .19% on the 2nd try off a layup. Stretches back out to a route, where he has done his best racing so far. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
5th: 3-8-2/6-5/4-1…Scratch 8…Santa Cruiser (3) looks formidable in this spot, especially with the scratch of the 8 this morning. The 2YO son of Dialed In has raced twice here this year. A third and then a second to show on the resume. Ran up against the likes of Essential Quality in the initial race and lost by just 41/2. If he can show that form again? Watch out here. My first Key Play of the Day. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 2-6-5.
6th: 3-5-1/2-6-4-8/7…Vice Versa (3) won the last time out for Team Asmussen and now wheels right back off that win at KEE on Oct. 20. Has speed, and can stalk, too. In 11 career starts to date, this 4YO son of Speightstown has a mark of 3-2-1. If they can keep him on the track? He can make some money. Look out here today. Kroy (5) Another speedster from the barn of Robertino Diodoro — who has caught fire in 2020 and has won with .22% of the 1,041 runners to make the gate. This one was claimed just two starts ago at Saratoga for $50,000. Shows up today for $25,000. Must respect. Super Sol (1) was claimed last time out for $20,000 and bumps up a rung in the claiming game today. Won easily at KEE o Oct. 10 — running off by 41/4 lengths. Will be coming from off the pace and gets a top jock in the irons. Could be right there at the wire, too. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 5-2-6-4-8-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 1-10-12/4/9-11/6-2-5…OFF TURF…Scratch 4-6-11-13…This 5.5-furlong sprint comes off the sod and moves to the main track. I will stick with my top pick here, though, Ambassador Luna (1). Won the Unbridled Sydney Stakes here on Sept. 2 when the race was moved off the grass then and over to the main track. Gets another rider today, though, and that is interesting and a reason to pause for the cause. But…looks like she could carve out a solid trip here. A Bit of Both (10) has raced over a fast main track on 10 occasions. Has 5 wins and 2 seconds. Has Graded Stakes experience, too. Barn is red, red hot and the rider has gone 3-1-1 in the last 5 for this barn operation. Sharp work on Nov. 7. Look out. Cambria (12) is my first Longshot Special of the Day. Listed at 15-1 in the ML, but this 3YO daughter of Speightstown has talent — evidenced by winning the first 3 races of the career. Could be spot on here with a big closing kick. I bet the 1-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
8th: 4-5/1-2/3-6/7…Windcracker (4) gets the blinkers for the first time after running 2nd in the last outing at KEE on Oct. 4. Nearly won that one and has hit the board in 3 of the first 4 outings. Should relish the ground here and the rider has won with .13% for this barn in the last 23 mounts. May like the shorter ground here, too. Caddo River (5) is the ML favorite and comes from the super sharp barn of Brad Cox. Top work here on Nov. 7 and this one has 2 2nds to start the career. One of those was at Saratoga and the other against some good ones at Belmont Park. Many may single this one today. I can’t. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then put the hammer lock on these two in the exacta. Cold.
9th: 6-3-4/2-5-1/7…Pit Boss (6) was claimed last time out for the hefty price of $75,000. Shows up today in the allowance company. Barn wins with .18% on first try after the purchase, but look what the trainer does when going from a sprint to a route event. Wins at a .30% clip with the last 20 to do so. Works are spot on. Could be a square price here, too. Ed DeRosa (Brisnet handicapper) are you watching? Trident Hit (3) broke the maiden right here in June. Came from dead last that day to hit the wire first. Will be coming late again and will need some racing room and luck. The wind? For or against? Lanerie is the new “rail man” at CD, replacing Calvin. Motagally (4) was claimed last time out, too. New barn leader has won with .27% of the first 11 races. Good for him. This one could be on the lead and roaring for home. Can they hold on? I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-3 over/under the 4-2-5-1-7 in two smaller units.
10th: 6-(13)/11-12-7-1A/10-1-3-5/9-4…OFF TURF…Scratch 1-3-5-10-11-13-14-15…This one is off the sod today, as well. But I will stick with my top pick Tamanrassett (6) — who will be my 2nd Longshot Special. This 2YO so of Not This Time ran poorly when the race was moved off the turf and to the main track at KEE on Oct. 22. But it was better than the final margin would indicate. Had a rough trip in-between horses that day and that zapped a lot of the energy. The young sire is throwing a lot of winners, including some that love the off going. Barn wins with .22% this meet. I give another shot here. American Tryst (11) didn’t run a step in the last one and in the same race as our top pick. But ran OK in the debut. I toss the last one and hope for a rebound effort here with a rider who has gone 3-1-1 in the last 5 for this barn. Command Central (12) didn’t get the best of post draws for trainer Dale Romans, but this one ran very good against Ethical Judgment just two starts ago and you will find that one in the “form” against our top pick, too. Love this rider choice. Watch out at some nice odds, as well. Sky Temple (7) ran 2nd last time out at KEE on Oct. 2. Trainer still looking for the first win. Today? Maybe. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-11-12 in one exacta. I will key the 6-11-12 over/under the 7-1A in two smaller units. (Ed?)
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene