|2019 Overall 1,334||1,334/465-484-602|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.86%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.76%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –876 of 1,334||65.67%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Nov 93-143||65.03%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Nov 50-143||34.97%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Nov 19/8-5-0||42.11%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 208-80-42-22||38.46%|
OK. Let’s admit it, straight up.
I stunk on Saturday.
One win. Eleven races.
Managed four exactas that returned $6.70, $17.60, $31.80 and $29.60 for each $1 played. But other than that modest collection of payoffs?
So, we wipe the slate clean. And, head back on the field.
Here’s a look at today’s selections:
1st: 3-1-12/11-9-2…This is less than a stellar collection of potential superstars in the making, but there is a 2YO filly in this group that has the potential to upset the apple cart and the male counterparts — Madam Novetzke (3). The trainer is known for such antics as placing the fillies against the males — especially early in the career. And, the barn will be installing the saddle for the first time today. Gets Lasix for the first time, too. This operation hits with .24% of those away from the races this long; with .12% getting the anti-bleeding medication for the first time; and the training pattern is pointing positive for this move to the dirt. If she can run? At all? Just a little bit? She may manhandle these. Let Me Lead (1) drops from the $30,000 price tag to half that for this one. Gets the blinkers back on today. Axis (12) drops down, as well, and the barn hits with .33% of those getting this kind of a plunge. Got off to a horrendous start last time. Better beginning could help. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. Good luck here.
2nd: 4-2-7/9-10/3-6…Girls Got Track (4) won her on Nov. 2 in a nice performance to break the maiden. Now, must move up to face winners for the first time and the barn hits with .14% of those. In 6 starts this meet, though, the trainer has 3 wins, 1 second and a third. This one gets the top rider back aboard and looks to have a shot at making it two in a row. Pass It On (2) will get to the main track for the first time since reading over this surface in May. Didn’t fare too well that day, but that was against much, much, much tougher. Has been trying to convert to a closer in the last 3 outs. Speed oriented before that. Barn does hit with .35% of those making the switch from turf to dirt. Hope springs. Daring (7) gets a huge drop for this one, too, and has the speed to be dangerous. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the trainer hits with .18% of those. Ran a real good one here two back to break the maiden. Look for this one to be dangerous here. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.
3rd: 5-1-7/3-8-(16)/11-2/6-9-10…Singsong Bird (5) will get a huge drop in class for this outing today, and the barn hits with .25% of those that plunge this far in one swoop. Does have stalking ability and the rider has won with .25% of the last 16 rides for this outfit. Has a second and two thirds in 4 previous runs here. Chance. Limage (1) was claimed two races back for $10,000 and returned to run 5th when bumped up to this level last time out. Barn hits with only .07% on the second try after a purchase, but the rider returns from two starts back. Look for this one to respond to that change today. Book of Love (7) tired on debut here on Nov. 2. Should improve on the second try, and the barn hits with .21% of those. This one has the most upside of the group. I’m using as my first Upset Special of the Day. I bet the 7 — at 10-1 ML odds — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 1-3-8-11-2-6 in two smaller versions.
4th: 2-1/5-9-8/7-6-4…Lonely Private (2) gets the edge for me in this one. The 2YO son of Soldat ran very well when moved to the dirt last time out at Keeneland. Nearly plucked the win that day for a top young trainer, who has 2 seconds and a third in 5 starts this meet. Top rider takes the assignment again. Look for this combo to be very tough here. Shashashakemeup (1) is 6-1 in the ML and may be a surprise to look out for. Barn hits with only .06% of first time starters, but this one has been training lights out here (Nov. 2, take note), and the dam has 1 winner from 2 starters. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box those two strong in the exacta. I will key the 2-1 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
5th: 2-10-4/11-7/12-1-6/3-8…Ted W (2) has hit the board in each of the last 5 races and 7 out of the last 8. Ultra consistent, and should relish a return to a route event here. In 5 tries at this distance, this 8YO gelding has 2 wins and 2 seconds. Love the recent work pattern. Third start off the layup. Veteran rider up. Promising at 5-1 ML odds. Peekacho (10) is another veteran, and has 3 wins in the last 4 races. Has speed to be up close, and has a win at this distance, too. Frost or Frippery (4) has hit the board in 9 of the last 10 races and has a 5-2-5 record in 14 tries at this distance. So why is this one not at the top of our board? Has 1 win in 19 starts here. Does have 2 seconds and 6 thirds. So? I use in third. I bet the 2-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
6th: (13)-9-11/5-7-10/(15)-6-8-3-4…The first turf event o the day is scheduled to be contested at the 5.5-furlong sprint distance, and if Elusive d’Oro (13) draws in from the Also-Eligible List, then I go strong with this 2YO son of Elusive Quality. Has run 4 straight seconds to begin the career. One of them on the turf here to begin the race career. If not, I will rely on the services of both Chief Howcome (9) and Hansens Mischief (11). The former ran well and closed strong for a barn that likes a race or two to tighten the final screws. Barn hits with .15% of those making the second grass start, and this one is bred to love the distance. Gets the best grass rider around to take the mount again. The latter is a son of Into Mischief and out of a mare that has produced 3 winners from 4 starters. Jockey is red hot, with a 6-4-4 mark in the last 22 starts. Could relish a return to the sod. I bet the 13 and key him if he gets in. If not, I bet the 9 across the board and then box the 9-11 in one exacta. I will key the 9-11 over/under the 5-7-10-6-8 in two smaller versions, too.
7th: 9-10/4-1/5-3…Private Collection (9) will be making the second career start for a barn that hits with .16% of them. Ran well on debut at KEE on Oct. 16. Tired at the end, but looked like a winner before that issue arose. Went 5-wide in that affair, too. Now, gets the meet’s top rider up and, perhaps, a trip closer to the rail. Look for a huge jump in condition today. Pomp and Pageantry (10) is the 9-5 ML favorite and has never run a race. Barn hits with .29% on the first start, though, and this one is training lights out over at KEE in the a.m. Will have to pop and go, but that is what this barn teaches. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-10 in one exacta. I will key the 9-10 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
8th: 8/1-6-1A-2-4/7-3…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Take Charge Angel (8). This 3YO Will Take Charge filly comes into this one off a near-miss second in the last time out at KEE on Oct. 19. Returns as the beaten fav today, and the barn hits with .20% of those. This one ran second to the great Champ Covfefe back in April at KEE. If she has that kind of speed and class? She can run them off their feet in this one today. Gets the third trip off the layup. Should be spot on here. I bet the 8 to win/place and then key the 8 over/under the numbers listed.
9th: 6-5-12/(13)/8-2-1/9-11…Unlike the first grass event of the day, this one will be an endurance test at 13/8-mile. Will test the character and wind stamina, too. I will give the slight edge to Bluegrass Parkway (6). This 3YO son of Quality Road has only one win in 9 starts over the sod, but has beneficing some real good ones along the way. Has closed to be third in each of the last two tries, and gets a strong finisher in the irons today. On my numbers, this one should be right there at the finish line. Channel Island (5) is another who will be doing his best running in the late going. Comes in off a win the last time out, and although that was in a claiming race, that should give him an experience edge over most of these. Like the rider choice here, too. Shore Magic (12) has raced just two times in the career and broke the maiden last time out at KEE on Oct. 19. Must move up to face more experienced runners today and the barn hits with .19% of those facing winners for the first time. Appears to have the talent, and attracts the top grass rider in these parts. Tall order moving up, though. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
10th: 12-5/2-1-4-8/(15)-3-10/7-9…Montmartre (12) gets the unfortunate luck of drawing way on the outside in today’s finale, but the 4YO gelded son of Distorted Humor still appears to be the best of this lot, and I will go with him. Drops all the way from the $50,000 price tag to the $10,000 level today. Gets the meet’s top rider. Comes from the meet’s top barn. What is there not to like? Probably the PT odds. But the work on Nov. 2 is spot on, and I think he should be a handful against this group. My second Key Play of the Day. So what to do? I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then key the 12 over/under the rest of the numbers in the exacta.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene