Day’s Results 11 / 4-4-4
2022 Overall — 2092 2092 / 707-759-977
Win % of Top Pick 33.80%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.93%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1337-2092 63.91%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 69-99 69.70%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 40-99 40.40%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 10/5-2-2 50.00% Win / 90.00% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 358-541 66.17%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 188-541 34.75%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 70/30-10-8 42.86% Win / 68.57% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  311/ 128-66-31 41.16% Win / 72.35% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2 16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2 28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2 27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6 21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM

Stats Are Now Completely Updated:

Here’s our looks for Sunday “Fun Day” at Churchill Downs on this 7th day of the week; or is it the first day of the week?

1st: 6-3/2-5/4//1-7…Undecoded (6) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this Sunday “Fun Day,” if you are either a polar bear or a penguin. This 3YO filly gets back to the claiming ranks here and the same level where she was claimed at just two starts ago. Ran well in the early going before tiring against tougher last time out. Will be better here, or should be. Nana’s Gray (3) drops in class for this one, too. Rider should be given days for his dangerous gate actions with The Big Mozz on Saturday. Eliminated several at the start of that one, but with these Stewards? Little to be done, I am sure. Not a fan of this jockey, who comes in with 1 win in 19 starts here. That figures to .05%. Wow. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the 3-2-5-4 in the exactas. Very little with the 3.

2nd: 8-3/6-1/2-4-7-5…Midsummer Soiree (8) ran well over a sloppy track last time out before tiring in the ending strides. Should improve off that one and the barn’s go-to rider gets the leg-up here. Chance. Proud Performer (3) will make the career debut here and the barn wins with .15% of the last 784 to do that. Sire gets .17% wins on first starters, too. Top rider up. I bet the 8-3 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-3 over/under the 6-1 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 3-1-2/7-5/4-6…Back Beat (3) is a 2YO son of Practical Joke and this one drops to $30,000 tag here. Won the MCL at the $25,000 mark. Gets a top rider back up. Chance. Big Beemster (1) won the last time out and now faces winners for the first time. Barn wins with .11% of the last 56 to move up to a tough ask. Special Operator (2) won the first time out at Ellis Park back in the Summer. Easy win that day. New rider up here and well bet in the debut. Barn wins with .12% when moving up to face winners for the first time. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-5 in two smaller units. 

4th: 3/4-8-1/2-5-7-9/6…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Peyton’s College (3). In 9 starts to date, this one still seeks the winner’s circle for the first time. But? Has 2 runner-ups and 3 thirds on the resume. May be time for this one, who drops to a career low level here. I bet the 3 across the board. I also bet the 3 over/under the 4-8-1-2-5-7-9 in the exactas, with more on the 4-8-1.

5th: 1//7/2-3-4/5/6…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with the rail bird — Inventing (1). This 3YO daughter of Union Rags was the work mate of Nest earlier this year. Finally got to break her MSW last time out at KEE with an impressive run. Should go back-to-back here. I bet the 1. Sternly. I key the 1 over (only) the 7-2-3-4-5-6. More with the 7. 

6th: 12-7/1-6/3-9/8-10/2-4-5-11…Cerchi (12) gets the nod here for the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at an impressive .25% rate here this meet and that is with 57 starters. Wow numbers. This 2YO daughter of Into Mischief cost just $90,000. Has won nearly $7,000 so far. Gets a new rider up and looks to be training well here. Electric Sense (7) has hit the board in each of the last two for the Cox barn. Both up at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Now comes to the big leagues. Must step it up. I bet the 12 across the board and then box the 12-7 in the exactas. I will key the two Cox horses over/under the two Maker horses (1-6) in two smaller units. 

7th: 3-9-4/10/1-7/6/5/8…Freydis the Red (3) looks the best in this grass race. The 2YO French-bred comes in off two straight 2nds. One of those was at Saratoga. Will be coming very late. Will need some racing room and luck, but talented. Sabalenka (9) won at KY Downs just two starts ago and had a terrible trip last time out. Gets a huge rider switch here. Not a fan of Jose Ortiz, who can find a way to get more good horses beaten than any person in the U.S., IMO. Look for better here with a return to the allowance ranks. Safeen (4) won the last time out at Laurel Park. Ran very well at KY Downs, too, and was just edged by our 2nd pick in that one. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10 in two smaller units. 

8th: 10-8/1-6-7/2-3-5-9-11-12//4…Repealing (10) won the last time out at Saratoga and has hit the board in 3 of the first 4 outs. Not bad. Loses a top rider and picks up a veteran who knows how to boot, but not the same caliber in the saddle. Not now. Not even close. Altered Shot (8) could be the “Upset Special of the Day.” This 4YO filly picks up a top rider and could come with a huge rally in the deep stretch. In 11 starts here? Has 4 wins, 3 seconds and 3 thirds. Don’t dismiss. I will not. I bet the 10-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 10-8 over/under the 1-6-7-2-3 in two smaller units.

9th: 4-1-3/6/5-7/2-8…Top Gun Girl (4) gets the nod here in the finale of the day. This 3Yo filly nearly won last time out at KY Downs. Moves to the dirt here and this barn wins with .28% of the last 88 to make this surface switch. Only miss was in a Stakes event over the AW at Presque Isle. Top gate rider here. Backyard Money (1) won at Saratoga by 7 lengths just two starts ago. That is “7 lengths.” Not bad. Pretty good. Chance here. Comedy Act (3) has speed. Can she hold on? I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene