|2019 Overall 1,385||1,385/486-504-618|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.09%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.70%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –913 of 1,385||65.92%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Nov 130-194||67.01%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Nov 71-194||36.60%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Nov 24/11-6-0||45.83%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 213-83-43-22||38.97%|
We got amped up for Turkey week with a little feast of our own making on Saturday at the ole ball yard. We consumed a whole lot of the festive bird — splashed with gravy — and all the sides, too.
Six winners that paid $10.80, $15.60, $6.20, $26.00, $13.00 and $13.20 per $2 played across the board. The $6.20 payout was just for a win/place maneuver.
Seven exactas that returned $8.00, $15.10, $32.70, $6.20, $101.20, $23.80, and $22.20 for each $1 played correctly.
And then, the big number. We hit the Pick 6. Our $32 ticket yielded over $1,000 smackers.
Now, let’s bring home a little sunshine and gear up for the holidays with a little more magic on Sunday. Here’s a closer look at our picks for today:
1st: 6/4-2-3/5-1…The first Key Play of the Day will come in the very first race with Potomac (6). This 4YO son of Speightstown was claimed last time out when running at Saratoga in August. Won that event for the $40,000 tag, and has been off since then. Has only one published work since the claim, and that comes at Turfway Park. The new barn operation hits with .22% of those making the debut for the new connections. Barn’s go-to rider takes the reins, and he is having a super meet. This one cost a whopping $350,000 at the 2016 KEE September Yearling Sale. Now, you can have for the price of $32,000. Not a bad gamble on the paperwork. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under the 4-2-3-5-1 in the exactas.
2nd: 6-5/3-8-2-7/1-9…Road Game (6) drops to the MCL level for the first time for a barn that hits with .16% of those doing that. Will also convert from the turf to the dirt, and this trainer hits with .21% of them. Has flashed some ability in the past, but not able to finish the job. Perhaps the drop in class today will enable him to find the wire quicker. Napoleon’s Empire (5) will inch back up the claiming ladder after a solid 2nd last time out for cheaper. Winner of that one came right back to win. And, this barn hits with .31% of those that return as a beaten favorite. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 numbers in the exacta. I key the 6-5 over/under the 3-8-2-7 in two cheaper versions.
3rd: 2-4/6-1/3-7…J D’s Girl (2) takes a free fall in the claiming ranks, and this barn operation hits with .24% of those that make this kind of plunge in one fell swoop. Gets a rider who won with this one in two straight races here back in May. Has never been offered for this cheap before and the class drop should make relevant once again here. Bold Esther (4) was claimed last time out for the $20,000 price tag. Ran well at that number and returns against the same kind today. Gets a top rider, who has converted from the West Coast. Has adjusted quite nicely too, recording a 2-2-1 mark in the first 11 rides here. Looks solid in this spot. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 2-4 over/under the rest of the numbes in two smaller versions.
4th: 1/6-5/3-2…Thirstforlife (1) is my next Key Play of the Day. This one has a sparkling 4-2-1 mark in 10 starts here, and that has come against some good ones. Has not won since racing here back in May. But looks well-spotted for this event, and stands out against the majority in this starting gate. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas.
5th: 1-3-11/(15)-5-9-10/8-12-(16)-7…Unbridled Outlaw (1) was claimed last time out for the $16,000 price tag. Now, this 6YO gelding is dropping to a career low level of $7,500. Connections need a bigger truck, right? But just consider this. The purse for this one is $26,000. You can make some real money at this track right now at all levels. If this one comes anywhere close to running the same kind of race he has in the last 3 outings? Goodbye. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the 3-11-5-9-10-8.
6th: 7-10-3/(14)-(13)-(12)/5-8-1A-2/9-11…This is scheduled to be a contest over the grass course, but I would be shocked if it was not moved over to the main track – considering all the rain and moisture that we have received over the past few days. Either way, I will stick with Lionite (7) in this spot. This 4YO gelded son of Quality Road was claimed last time out when running third here on Nov. 15 – just 9 days ago. That was the first start since September of 2018. So, Team Asmussen is going right back to the well. If he can find just a little bit more run to finish this one, he will be tough in this spot. For sure. Go Away (10) will get the blinkers for the first time today, and the new barn operation hits with .32% of them donning the shades for the first time. Will also plummet into the claiming ranks for the first time, too. Barn hits with .16% of those. This will be the 3rd start off a layup, as well. Barn hits with .21% of those. Adds up. Fort Peck (3) has not won in 7 starts this year, but used to have some real talent. Won here last September (2018). Has not been the same horse since, but did run a good one two back when dropped into the claiming ranks. Returns to the dirt and the claimers today. I bet the 10 – take note – to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10 over/under the other numbers in the exacta.
7th: 6-12-1/3-2-9/10-5-8/7-4…Awesome Figure (6) will switch back to the dirt today, and should be a tough out in this spot. Came back off a 7-month layup last time out in a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod at KEE. Ran well for a half of that before spitting the bit. Now, gets back to the dirt – where he has won twice in 4 starts. And, drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, too. Barn hits with .33% of the 43 runners that have done that this year. Should be fitter after the last run, too. Miz Shelton (12) drops into the claiming ranks today, as well. Barn hits with .12% of those doing that for the first time. Should be able to utilize her speed better at this distance, too. A real threat. Arch Avenue (1) gets a huge drop in class for this one, too. I can toss the last one. In too tough. Two races before that were spot on. Cutback in distance should not hurt here either. Barn hits with .29% coming off the bench, too. Threat. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 6-1 over/under the 12-3-2-9 in two smaller versions.
8th: 9-6/4-3-7/1-8/5-2…Dinar (9) will get the blinkers for the first time today, and the young trainer – who tutored under the expert supervision of Chad Brown. While the barn has not won with the first 5 starters to get the shades for the first time, it could happen with this one today. The 3YO son of Union Rags doesn’t need a whole lot of improvement to find the winner’s circle. Ran third to a real good one last time out as the beaten favorite. Look for more out of this one today. Island Boy (6) ran for the first time in 7 months at Churchill Downs in October. Ran OK for the first time back , but look at the race at Gulfstream Park in March. Ran a real good one to a comeback winner. Works here since the Oct. race have been very solid. Will be coming late. I bet the 9-6 across the board and then box those two solidly in one exacta. I will key the 9-6 over (only) the 4-3-7-1 in a smaller version.
9th: 2-1-(14)-(13)/3-(11)-(12)-10/8-7/(15-16-17)…This is another one scheduled for the sod, and this one may have a chance to stay on the grass – if the sun pops out a bit on Sunday. Either way, I will go with Hierarchy (2). This 4YO son of Point of Entry comes in off a super effort at KEE on Oct. 25. Ran a fast-closing 2nd in that one to a good one. In 12 starts on the grass, he has only 2 wins, but does have 4 seconds and 2 thirds to boost the resume. Gets a top rider to take the reins for the first time, too. Tigers Rule (1) is a hard-luck type. Has just 2 wins in 13 starts over the grass, but has 4 seconds and a third, as well. Always seems to run a solid one. Gets a new rider up for the first time, as well. In 3 starts here, though, this one has never hit the board. Interesting. I will bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under the top numbers. Keep an eye out to see if the AE List horses or the MTO horses get in. I def use them in the mix if they draw in, as well.
10th: 5-7/11-9/(15)-1-8-(13)/(14)-2-4…Victory Element (5) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time, and that should be all this one needs to snap the maiden ranks today. Was solid earlier this year on the West Coast for Team Baffert. Ran OK for the first race in nearly 8 months on Oct. 23 at Indy Grand. Now, gets the plunge in class. Top rider takes the reins. If he is anywhere close to the horse that ran earlier, then he should put away this field early and often. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-7 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 5 over (only) the 7-11-9-(15)-1-8-(13) in a smaller version.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene