|Both Day Results||19/11-8-8|
|2019 Overall 1,244||1,244/437-448-560|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.13%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.72%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –814 of 1,244||65.43%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Nov 31-51||60.78%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Nov 21-51||41.18%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Nov 11/7-1-0||63.64%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 200-79-38-22||39.50%|
What a day to have a day.
We had a Saturday like no other at Churchill Downs. Of the 10 races carded, we hammered home 7 winners. We won both of the Stakes events. And, we cashed exacta tickets in 7 of the 10 races, as well.
Wow time. Seriously.
Unfortunately for both PR purposes, and my pocketbook, our “Big Day” came on another “Big Day.”
Breeders’ Cup Day.
Out West, we did manage to go 4-6-3 in the 9 Breeders’ Cup Championship Stakes. But it was too little, too late. We had been over-shadowed.
At the very least, our handicapping and winners at home helped off-set some of the blunders we may afar. And, we got home without too much damage overall.
Here’s a look at Sunday’s card at Churchill Downs:
1st: 6-7/4-8-3/5-2…Sworn Silence (6) gets a huge class drop after a poor performance here back in September against much, much tougher. Didn’t show much lick at all in that one. But in 8 tries here, this one has 3 wins and 2 seconds. In 2 times at the distance, has a second. Love the training session on Oct. 25. Gets the hottest rider in America right now. Adds up for me. Sky Vision (7) may spice up the odds rack a bit here, at 6-1 ML posting. Has speed, speed, speed. Last time out here, the 5YO Court Vision mare nearly took them gate to wire before tiring very late. Does have 2 wins in 7 starts at this distance and a second in only previous try here. Worth noting. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-7 in one exacta. I will key the 6 over/under all the other numbers listed in two smaller versions.
2nd: 5-3-6/1-4…Diamond Crazy (5) ran a real good one here last time out in September. Came running with a rush at the end as the favorite. Barn hits with .19% of those returning as a beaten fan’s choice, and the works have been solid since the near-miss. Gets a new rider today. Off to a solid start here this meet. Broke the maiden here three races back. Looks due to me. Cardamon (3) is the huge 8-5 ML favorite. Returns today after a debut win for the barn of Bill Mott. Impressive in that one, drawing off to a 11/4-length win as the fav. The runner-up has already come back to win again. Top rider returns and the works continue to impress. Daughter of Pioneerof the Nile will cut back a furlong today and face winners for the first time. Interesting approach. I would have thought they would have gone the other way with distance, considering the pedigree. Boujie Girl (6) may be poised for a bigger effort in here today. Watch out. She is making the second start for a new barn operation, and picks up a hot, hot rider. Look at who this one has run next to in the past. Beaten by the likes of Chasing Yesterday, Mother Mother and Bellafina (who just so happened to run a real big one yesterday in the Breeders’ Cup). Works improving. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.
3rd: 9-3-6/4-1-11/5-8…Lady C (9) nearly won at this same level when converting over to a fast dirt surface for the first time. Had a super work since that race on oct. 23. Could be sitting on a big one here for a barn that wins with .18% in the MCL ranks. Belleinthecity (3) will convert over to a new barn operation for the firsts time today. Gets the hottest rider in town up. And, is coming off a series of nice runs. In 5 lifetime starts, has 2 seconds and a third. But…will be making the first start in a year. Works have been just “OK.” Love to think this one is ready, and the barn knows how to crank them up, for sure. Drop Dead Gorgeous (6) has raced 10 times. Has 2 seconds and 2 thirds on the resume. Like the work here on Oct. 28. Showed a ton of speed last time out. May try that tactic again. Cut back in distance should help a little. I bet the 9-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 9-3 over (only) the 6-4-1-11-5-8 in a lesser version.
4th: 2/4-8/3-6/5-1-7…The first Key Play of the Day comes right here. We were 2-for-3 with our Key Plays on Saturday, and we hope to kick start the trend again right here. River Echo (2) was nabbed out of the claiming pool last time out. New barn operation hits with .33% of those making the first start for the new boss. And, that’s with 60 horse/race sample size. Like the training sessions since the pickup, and retains the hot jock. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed.
5th: 1-9-10/(11)-5-2/(12)-(13)-7-(14)…The first grass race of the day will be contested at the 11/16-mile distance, and I will go to the railbird King of Fortune (1). This 3YO son of Midnight Lute ran a real good one on debut at KEE on Oct. 9. Slow start, but came with a rush late. Now, adds a little more distance today, and that should help the cause. New rider has a .33% win rate with this trainer over the last 60 days, and the barn hits with .20% of those making the second try at a route distance. My choice. Road Game (9) gets back to the turf today after a failed experiment over the dirt here in September. Has speed. Will try to carry it today, with a top jock on board for the first time. I can’t leave out. Life Mission (10) has been out 12 times and still is looking for the first win. But does have 3 seconds and 4 thirds on the resume. I use underneath. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-9 over/under the 10-11-5-2-7 in two smaller versions.
6th: 5/11-9-4/(13)-2-10-6-1…The second Key Play of the Day comes right here with Cold Smoke (5). This 2YO son of Tapiture cost $50,000 earlier this year at a 2YO Sale. Now being offered up for the $30,000 price tag. Comes off a near miss second at KEE on Oct.18. Looked like a winner that day as the odds-on favorite. Caught at the wire. Barn hits with .31% of those returning as a beaten favorite. New jockey is a newcomer to this barn rotation, as well. Interesting development here. But this one looks much the best to me. I bet the 5 to win/place and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
7th: 12-11-9/10-6-5-2/4-7-1…I will go the outside and saddle up with my top choices — led by Debating (12). In this election season, the name certainly fits and so does this 4YO son of Giant’s Causeway. Ran a huge one last out at KEE, closing from nearly last and many lengths back to be third. Returns today as a beaten favorite, and the barn hits with .30% of those kind. Has a 1-1-1 record here, and 2 seconds in 4 tries at this distance. Top jock stays tuned. Mine My Time (11) ran third against a winner that came right back to duplicate that effort the next time. Gets a top rider back up in the saddle, and this one has 2 seconds and 2 thirds in 7 previous runs here. Looks like a runner-up candidate to me. Consistent in that routine, though. Ace Destroyer (9) drops in class a lot on the return from a near-6 month layup. Works solid. New rider up. Don’t dismiss this one, at some nice odds. Upset Special here. I bet the 12-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 12-9 over/under the 11-10-6-5-2 in two smaller versions.
8th: 5-3/8-9/7-6-2/4…Volatile (5) looks to be a solid choice in this spot. The 3YO son of Violence cost a hefty $850,000 as a KEE September Yearling in 2017. Has run two really nice races this year and is coming off a solid second to a horse that came right back to win again. My solid pick in here. Take note. Can run. Easy Shot (3) may be using this one as a prep for some longer races, or he would be my pick. Ran up against some good ones back this spring — including Long Range Toddy, Improbable, Mucho Gusto, Gunmetal Gray and others. Work on Oct. 26 was spot on in the slop here. May need one, though. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-3 in one exacta. I will key the 5 over/under the 3-8-9-7-6-2-4 in two smaller versions.
9th: 3-7-6/4-2-1-5…The last of the grass races today, and I will saddle up with Krampus (3) in this well-balanced field. This one ran a really nice 3rd three starts back in the G3 Poker Sakes at Belmont, back in June. That was when he got the blinkers for the first time. Ran up against Got Stormy in the next out, and she ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile on Saturday. Wow. Came back and had all kinds of traffic issues in the race at KEE. Toss that one. Looks poised for this group. Confidence builder here. Like the rider choice, too. Factor This (7) has real speed and will make the lead with a clean break. They will have to catch this one, and he can gas it. Should be able to hang around for part of the check. Parlor (6) ran a nice 3rd last time out at KEE. Has 2 wins in 7 starts over this sod. Must use, for me. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
10th: 10-1-6/2-11/4-9…Bella Kristina (10) gets the call in today’s finale. This 4YO Trappe Shot filly gets class relief in this spot and the barn hits with .29% of those getting this kind of drop. Has speed. Third start off the layup and the barn hits with .14% of those. Looks spotted for a good run in this one. Just a Dream (1) gets a huge drop in class, as well. This barn hits with .27% when falling in the price category this much. Moves from the grass to the dirt, and the barn scores with .29% of those getting this surface switch, too. Love the work back in August. Looks well spotted here. I bet the 10-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 10-1 over/under the 6-2-11-4-9 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best/Gene