Results After Saturday’s Picks at Churchill Downs

Total Day Results 11/3-4-7
2021 Overall 1,605 1605 / 603-573-766
Win % of Top Pick 37.57%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.33%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1088-1,605 67.79%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 31-52 59.62%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 10-52 19.23%
“Key Horses” @ CD 4/0-1-0 00.00% win / 25.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 242/ 108-55-23 44.63% Win / 76.86% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ CD 7/0-0-1 00.00% Win / 14.29% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (10-30-21) 18/4-0-0 22.22% Win / 22.22% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win /26.32% ITM

Results After Saturday’s Picks at Breeders’ Cup

Total Day Results 9 /1-2-6
2021 Overall 1,614 1614/604-575-772
Win % of Top Pick 37.42%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.29%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1093-1,614 67.72%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 31-52 59.62%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 10-52 19.23%
“Key Horses” @ CD 4/0-1-0 00.00% Win / 25.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 244/ 109-55-23 44.67% Win / 76.64% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ CD 7/0-0-1 00.00% Win / 14.29% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (10-30-21) 18/4-0-0 22.22% Win / 22.22% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win /26.32% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

We had an eventful, up & down day on Saturday. Lots of fun. We managed to hit a few. Lose a few (Lieutenant Dan? Ouch.) We hit the All-Turf Pick 4 at the Breeders’ Cup, amazingly enough, and that righted so many ships.

Here’s a look at Sunday’s picks at Churchill Downs:

1st: 5-/4-3/1/2…Ultimate (5) may be just that in the ole’ lid-lifter on Sunday, the day after the Breeders’ Cup. This 3YO son of Speightstown — who just happens to be one of my most favorite sires of all time — was claimed just last time out here on Sept. 26. Ran a very nice second as the beaten favorite in that one. Barn wins with .25% of those returning as a defeated fan’s choice, and with .20% on the first start after a purchase. Gets a top rider up. My solid pick and the first “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 5 to win/place and then key the 5 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 4-3 than the rest.

2nd: 1-3/4-6/5-2…Four Dawn (1) gets the click here, after running 3rd to a horse that came right back to win the next outing, as well. This barn wins with .28% when routing for the first time and should be closer or on the lead throughout the proceedings. Gets the barn’s go-to rider back up and the barn wins with .34% when going from two sprints into the first two-turn event. Off the Charts (3) has a shot in here, as well. This 2YO daughter of Liam’s Map ran the distance last time out at KEE. Ran a steady 4th. Barn wins with .11% when routing for the 2nd time. Chance. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-3 in the exactas. I will key the 1-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.

3rd: 6-4/3/2-1-5…Malibu Moira (6) goes for trainer George Leonard III, who was at Del Mar on Saturday to race his talented 2YO filly California Angel in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. This mare does not rank those headlines, but is a solid 5YO daughter of Uncle Mo. Has a 3-3-0 record over 9 starts on a fast dirt track and will make the Churchill Downs debut here. Should be stalking off a solid run up front and gets a veteran in the irons. Will have to convert back to the dirt, but that may be the best surface for this one, any way. My pick. Singsong Bird (4) rates a chance. Won the last two and three of the last four. one of those wins came by 13 lengths over this track in June. Look out. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.

4th: 2-1/4-6-5/3…On the Rise (2) will move up a notch in the class department here after running a very impressive 2nd at the $50,000 MCL level last time out. New barn wins with only .06% on the first try after the purchase, but the barn/rider combo is very hot right now. they have gone 2-0-1 in the last 4 tries together in the last two weeks. This one has the speed to be close up early and has the stamina to last, too. My solid pick. Shell Shock (1) has a shot. Will make the 2nd start since May here. Barn has a win and a second in just 2 starts this meet. This one has faced tougher in the past. Look out. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 2-1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.

5th: 8-3/7-5/4-6/1-2…Nice event carded here, and I will give the slight nod to I Will Stand (8). This 5YO son of Awesome Patriot comes in off a solid couple of efforts at Indy Grand. Before that, though, this one was 2nd here in May. Gets a top rider back from the Breeders’ Cup to sit in the saddle and the work on Oct. 31 was spot on. Barn wins with .25% with a beaten favorite. Futile (3) is a solid pick here, too. In fact? I may give the slight edge, despite my numbers. This one goes for a red-hot barn operation, which is winning at a .32% rate this meet so far. Regular rider, who has scored with 6 of 21 in the last 7 days, takes the mount again. Look out here. I bet the 3 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 8-3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-3 over/under the rest of the numbers in two slight units.

6th: 2-8-12/3-6-4-11/1/7…Cuzzywuzzy (2) drops to half the asking price of the last race, and this 3YO filly ran 3rd and was well supported at the windows in that one. Loses the blinkers here and the barn wins with .50% of those kind. Has a 2nd and 3rd in 3 previous runs here — all against tougher. Hot rider is up. Adds up for me. Ain’t She Dahrlin (8) gets a Breeders’ Cup rider back and this one will be dropping off the claim. Barn wins with a whopping .35% of those kind. Will be coming late. Don’t know if she can get there, but she will try. Sentimental Cross (12) goes for a hot trainer and drops to half the asking price, too. Ran a good one at Ellis back in the summer. Has some speed. May be tough on the front end. Maybe? I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 12-3-6-4-11-1 in two smaller units.

7th: 3-6/7-1/4-2/5…Laura’s Charm (3) drops into the Starter Allowance after two impressive runs in the last two outings. Won here two starts ago by nearly 9. Came back against much, much tougher and ran a tiring 3rd at KEE. Will face easier in this spot. Big shot. Mohaylady (6) was in deep waters last time out. Ran OK for awhile in that Stakes. Now, drops back into better temperatures. Has a shot and could make the pace interesting. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-6 in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 7-1-4-2 in two smaller units.

8th: 8-2/11-10-7-6-3/1-4-5/9…Sir Giannis (8) is certainly the one to beat here, in my book. This 3Yo son of Violence drops into the $30,000 claiming ranks after some solid efforts against tougher. Top trainer has won with .17% of 206 starters this year and gets the meet’s best rider up. In 5 dirt starts over a fast track, this one has a win and a third. Look for this one to be tough out here. O Dogg (2) was picked up for $20,000 last time out. Now, goes for $30,000. Barn wins with .17% on the first start after the purchase and this one was beaten just a neck last time. Barn is red hot. Can’t dismiss anything from this outfit. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 11-10-7-6-3 in two smaller units.

9th: 7-6/4/2-5-8-9/3-1…Amendment Nineteen (7) ran a solid one in the G3 Remington Park Oaks last time out and came from off the pace to do that. It was the first start for the Brad Cox barn and the outfit wins with .19% when making the 2nd start for the trainer. Also, barn wins with .29% on the 2nd start off a layup. This one figures to be a tough out here. Lady Traveler (6) has run 1-1-1 in five previous races here, but has never hit the board at this distance. Has faced very good ones in the past, like Army Wife in the G2 Black Eyed Susan just three starts ago. Has speed. Has talent. Could pop. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-6 in the exactas. I will key the 7-6 over/under the 4-2-5-8-9 in two smaller units.

10th: 2-8/3-9-1/4-5/6-7…Smarmy (2) has been knocking on the MSW door ever since the 3Yo daughter of Liam’s Map started her career. Has 3 seconds and a third in 4 career starts so far. Will make the 2nd start off a layup here, and the barn wins with only .06% of those, but this one looks to be the pure speed. May be graduation day. Tap for Me (8) will be the one to watch in here, though. Undoubtedly. This is a 3YO daughter of Tapit and the G1 Stakes-winner Groupie Doll. Wow. What a pedigree. This one has been working very well and it would be great to see this one duplicate the good works of both her mom and dad. Love to see it for good friend and former trainer Buff Bradley. I will bet the 2-8 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 3-9-1 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene