|Total Day Results||8 / 4-2-3|
|2021 Overall 1,407||1407 / 536-496-678|
|Win % of Top Pick||38.10%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.51%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 952-1,407||67.67%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 5-8||62.50%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 4-8||50.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 1/1-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 210/ 94-48-21||44.78% Win / 77.62% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ CD 3/0-0-1||00.00% Win / 33.33% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (9-8-21) 11/3-0-0||27.27% Win / 27.27% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Ky Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM|
(Stats Updated After Friday & Saturday’s Cards Are Completed)
Here’s our looks for Sunday, Funday, at the big oval:
1st: 6-3-5/1-7-8/2/4…The ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval is a 11/16-mile router for the MCL $20,000 level. I give the edge to Sailor’s Return (6), who moves to the dirt for the first time ever and drops to the lowest price tag ever, as well. Will race for the first time with the biggest equipment change ever — as a gelding. This one cost a hefty $275,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Rider has won with .20% of the last 16 mounts for this barn operation. Has the ability to close strong. Problem is? This track has been favoring the front-runners so far. Hmmm. Scat Shack (3) drops all the way from the MSW level to this price tag. Ran OK on first go, but the switch to the turf failed. Now, back to the dirt. Barn wins with .16% when dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time, too. Barn starting to heat up, a bit. Blake B. (5) has run two 2nds in a row and figures here with the speed rider up in the irons. Made a huge move in the slop last time out after losing an iron in that one. Figures. Must use, for me. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-7-8 in two smaller units.
2nd: 7-5/6-2-3/4-1/1A…Shi O’Shi (7) goes for the dynamite duo of owner Maggi Moss and trainer Tom Amoss. This 4YO Daredevil filly was claimed for $20,000 back in April. Up for $8,000 tag here. Look at the race two back and on the dirt. That one is certainly good enough for this spot. Has speed and that is a valued commodity over this surface right now. My solid choice. Showit (5) has raced at this distance 23 times for the career, and has a 5-4-4 record for the efforts. Gets back to dirt here and this barn wins with .16% when making the 2nd start off a layup. Sharp, sharp work on Sept. 12. Could be poised. I bet the 7-5 across the board here and then box these two sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 7-5 over (only) the 6-2-3-4-1 in a smaller unit.
3rd: 3-2/1-4/6-7/5…Wild Appeal (3) goes for a top barn operation, which has won with .25% of 716 starters this year. But? This trainer is off to a very chilly start here and has shown some difficulty in the past with winning here in Derby City. This one ran huge at Saratoga last time out and now drops off that effort. Should be the tough out here, and the one to beat, for sure. Ingersoll (2) goes for a top young trainer and this barn wins with .22% when dropping into the MCL ranks. Work on Sept. 12 was very solid and this one could improve in the 2nd career start. Heavily bet on debut and should figure here. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-2 in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over (only) the 1-4-6-7-5 in a smaller unit.
4th: 4-2-3/5/1-7-6…You always bet the #4 in the 4th race, right? Well, you do when the numbers dictate it and the handicapping suggests it. LOL. Laughing Boy (4) ran a real good one over this dirt surface back in June. Shipped to New York to try the Saratoga group, and that didn’t fare too well. But home now and the work on Sept. 13 was spot on. Rider fits this barn’s asks very well and has won with .12% of the last 25. Look out for this one. Marvelousmoondance (2) goes for a trainer still looking for that 2021 first win. Zero-for-10 right now. But he gets a huge rider switch here and this one worked well for this one, too. From a Stakes-placed dam who has 2 winners from 3 starters and has a 2nd in only previous try here. Chance. Rider started the meet with a 6-1-3 record in the first 23 mounts. Nice. Mount Kenya (3) can’t not be dismissed, either. This one came running late last time out over the sod at Ellis Park. Returns to the main track and that is a question mark. Barn wins with .12% when going turf to dirt. Chance. I bet the 4-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
5th: 6-8/4-3-7/1/2-5…Brew Crew (6) has run three nice ones in a row and has a win in only previous try over this dirt surface. Race two back is very good. The winner that day came right back to defeat Dennis’ Moment the next time out and both of them tried the first ever Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes on Saturday night. This is being written before that race is/was run, but go look up and see what Derby Date did. This one was game against that one and is up for $50,000 here. My first “Key Play of the Day.” I will? I will bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-8 in the exactas. I will key the 6-8 over/under the 4-3-7-1 in two smaller units.
6th: 7-9/4-5-1/3/2-8-10/6…Abdan (7) is a 3YO son of Liam’s Map and another “dropper” for the barn of top claiming trainer Robertino Diodoro. Goes from $75,000 tag all the way to the $30,000 level here. Barn wins with .23% on the second start after the claim purchase and wins with .20% when making the 2nd start in the barn’s operation. Go-to rider up and may improve with the shorter distance here. Take note of the cut back. Windcracker (9) is the horse to beat, IMO. This 3YO gelding drops from the $50,000 ranks into this $30,000 level here. Over the first 10 starts, has 3 seconds and 2 thirds. Will be coming off a rather significant layup, but the barn here wins with .24% when away this long. The rider has won with a whopping .23% of the last 13 rides for this top barn operation. One to beat, IMO. I bet the 7-9 across the board and then box these two numbers sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 7-9 over (only) the 4-5-1-3-2 in a smaller unit.
7th: 1-5-7/6-8-2/4/3…Hennys Crazy Train (1) nearly won last time out and will have to step it up to face tougher in this spot. But look at the race three back. Please. Claimed out of that one for $50,000 when she won over this dirt surface. Won the race before that, too. And, it was here. Perfect 2-for-2 in LOU. Regular rider returns and this one looks very salty in this spot. Look out. Duplicitous (5) is the horse to beat, IMO. This 4YO Twirling Candy filly comes in off a closing 3rd last time out at Ellis Park. Gets a key jockey change and this one has a 2-0-2 record in 7 starts here. At this distance, though? How about a 2-0-3 mark in 6 outs. Look out. Connie K (7) ran huge here on June 24. Just nipped after setting all the fractions in that one. Has speed and that makes this one dangerous over this track right now. The rider, on the other hand, has been ice, ice, ice. And, I haven’t seen much different here since the change in venues. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 7-6-8-2-4 in two smaller units.
8th: 1A-1-10/7-2-5-9/6/8-11…Dreamalot (1A) is the more experienced of the two that will make the gate for Godolphin Stables here. Time will tell if this 2YO daughter of Ghostzapper is the better of the owner’s duo. Returns here as a beaten favorite for a barn that wins with a whopping .29% of those kind. Ran up against a filly who has won two in a row and is sitting on go these days, too. Works are good. Top and leading rider here gets the nod. Tough to bypass here. Full Focus (1) is the first time starter from the same ownership group and goes for a trainer who normally wins these meets in a walkovers. Sharp work here on Sept. 11. Barn’s go-to rider up. Despite the #1, remember this one gets the #3 post position. Key for a first time starter — especially coming out of this chute. The duo is my next “Key Play(s) of the Day.” I hope both make the gate. Either or both have a real shot. I will bet the entry to win/place. Strong. I will box the 1-1A-10 in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the entry over (only) the 10-7-2-5-9-6 in another smaller unit.
9th: 1-7-5/2-3-9/6-8/10-4…What a nice field has been assembled for this high-profile, big-purse allowance. This is a Stakes field, to be sure, with a purse suiting a Stakes event, too. I go to the rail and saddle up strong with Lady Traveler (1). This 3YO daughter of Quality Road cost a hefty $350,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale and while she is working at working off that tab, she is already Graded Stakes-placed on two occasions. Pedigree is made. Has speed and can gas it early. Will have to stretch out to the 1-mile distance here, but looks like she can handle that — since this is a one-turn race at CD. Town Avenger (7) moves to the dirt for the first time, but if she can handle that surface switch? Look out. this one has run three rally good races to begin the career and she is by one of the best sires in the entire game. Working well over the dirt. Barn wins with .13% when moving to the dirt and with .25% when returning as a beaten favorite. Mucho Macho Momma (5) rates a shot, too. Rider has 2 nice seconds on this one in the past. In 4 starts here? Has 3 seconds. Have to include. Two runner-ups in two tries at this distance, too. Did I mention the rider? I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-3-9 in two smaller units.
10th: 8-5/6-2/1-3/9…The Sunday finale is a MSW event and I will load up the bus (hope it is a bus) for the trip home with and on Princess Lea (8). Barn is having a nice run of it, of late. Hot at KY Downs. Looks hot here, too. Barn wins with .20% of the last 132 when returning from this kind of a layup. Work on Sept. 11 was spot on. Hot rider takes the irons back. Has hit the board in the last 3. In 5 starts here, to date? Has a 0-2-2 mark. Look out. Moonchild (5) will come home after a run at Indy Grand for the amazing barn of Brad Cox. This 3YO filly cots $250,000 to purchase in 2019. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up and the barn wins with .37% when racing a route for the 2nd time. Yep. That is .37% of the last 54. Wow numbers. I bet the 8-5 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. Stern. Ly. I will key the 8-5 over (only) the 6-2-1-3-9 in a smaller unit.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene