(Thanksgiving Day and thankful for so much — including my 3 grandsons)
||10 / 2-4-1
|2022 Overall — 2139
||2139 / 721-777-1000
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1367-2139
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 79-118
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 43-118
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 14/6-4-2
||42.86% Win / 85.71% ITM
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 378-569
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 199-569
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 76/36-10-8
||47.37% Win / 71.05% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 321/ 135-68-31
||42.06% Win / 72.90% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0
||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2
||16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6
||21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM
All Stats Now Completely Updated
Here’s our looks at the Churchill Downs’ card for this Thanksgiving Day, a most wonderful holiday where food and cheer flow easily and gracefully from one to all.
Here’s hoping you and your family enjoy the greatest of days, full of friendship and fellowship.
Here’s hoping that you can find your “table” full of warm food and warmer love.
Here’s hoping that you can find your fill of both nourishment and spirit.
Here’s hoping that you have as good a Thanksgiving as we are planning on at the racetrack today — with a joyous occasion of remembrance and celebration.
1st: 3-6/5/7/1-4/2…Funnybet (3) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter before we get our first helping of turkey breast, dressing and gravy. The 5YO mare was claimed last time out and returns at the same level here for a HOF trainer/owner. Nearly won last time out and could pull off that trick here. In 9 previous tries over this track, this gal has a 2-2-1 record. Figures with this group. Aidanike (6) was offered up for twice this price tag last time out. Won here for this level back in June and then ran well at Saratoga, too. Gets back here after being claimed two starts ago. New barn struggles a bit in the win bracket. Has just .09 winners in 69 starts this year. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-6 in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 5-7-1-4 in two smaller units.
2nd: 6/4-3/5-2-10-9-1/7-8…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in just the 2nd race of the day and we will ante up with Goodbetterbest (6) in this $20,000 claimer. The 2YO Collected filly cost a whopping $97,000 at the 2021 KEE September Yearling Sale in 2021. This one was claimed for $30,000 just last start and now drops off that purchase price. Barn wins with .20% of the last 20 to do that. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up for this mount and the performance just two back is plenty good enough to win here, if she can duplicate that effort. I bet the 6 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 6 over/under the 4-3-5-2-10-9-1 in the exactas. More with the 4-3 than the rest.
3rd: 1/2-3/5-6-7/4…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes in this affair, and I will saddle up with Bluegrass Parkway (1). This 6YO Quality Road gelding ran huge in a Stakes at Saratoga just two starts ago when it was washed off the turf. In one start over a fast dirt surface, he has a 2nd. In one start over an “off track,” he has a 3rd. Should be able to covert here to the main track for a barn that does well with these types. Barn is having a superb meet, winning at a .21% rate after 53 starts. Gets a top rider who has won with .18% of the last 38 for this trainer. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 1 over/under the 2-3-5-6-7-4 in the exactas. More with the 2-3 than the others.
4th: 1-4-2/5/6/3-7…Drive for Fun (1) gets the edge for me. This 4YO gelding ran 2nd last time out when dropping into the claiming ranks for the fist time. Now, this one gets another drop to a run lower. This one is worth the asking price here and may do well in several different winter venues. In 3 starts here, has a win and a 2nd. Love this one here. Chasing Rainbows (4) could be a nice upset possibility. Was claimed last time out by a miracle worker with these types and the trainer wins with .16% when making the first start after a purchase. Gets blinkers for the first time here. Barn wins with .14% of those kind. Carbonite (2) was claimed at KEE two starts back and will make the 2nd start for the new connections. They win with .24% in the last 55 of those kind. Blinkers come off and the trainer wins with .23% of the last 75 to toss the shades in the waste basket. Look out here. Has speed to burn. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-6 in two smaller units.
5th: 5-2-7/4/1-6-8/3…Sure Can (5) will go for a trainer having a super meet, winning at a .29% rate after the first 17 starts this meet. In those starts, trainer has gone 5-1-3. Gets a new rider here and that could help this one. Comes off the slop to a dry track and that may be the key. D’oro Street (2) could be an upset possible here, too. This one cost $400,000 at the 2021 KEE September Yearling Sale and has worked lights out for this one. Lights. Out. Dam of this one has 2 winners from 2 starters. Take note. I bet the 5-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
6th: 1-7/4/5-6/2-3-8//9…Vow (1) may wow here in this MCL event. This 3YO Union Rags filly cost $140,000 to purchase a year ago and will get Lasix for the first time here. Ran well here last November, but she has been off the trail for about a year now. Working well for a HOF trainer who wins with .18% off the bench. Gets a top rider for this one. I will go, with the understanding that she may need one, too. Delightof the Nile (7) ran 2nd here a year ago, as well. Came off a long layoff to falter here on Oct. 1. Gets Lasix for the 2nd time. Has talent. Can she find it again? Trainer is having a tough year, winning at a meager .09% after 258 starts. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top two numbers in the exactas. I will key the top two numbers over/under the 4-5-6 in two smaller units.
7th: 3-9/4-2-7/5/8/1-6…Olliemeister (3) was claimed last time out for $30,000 and now is bumped up to the $50,000 level here. Barn wins with .19% of those making the first start after a purchase. Won easily at the price tag last out. Looks like he is capable of handling a tougher crowd here. Has run well in the allowance ranks before. Brando (9) goes for a young trainer just starting out and this one found the winner’s circle last time out, when claimed by a top claiming operation. This will be a test here, but this one has shown ability in the past, too. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top two in the exactas. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 4-2-7-5-8 in two smaller units.
8th: 1-4/5-9/3-8-10/2-6-7…Powder River (1) has hit the board in each of the last 8 outings. Has five 2nds in that grouping, too. In 19 career starts, this one has hit the board 12 times. But? Only 2 wins. Can she figure out a way to run past them at the wire? Great question. Underneath? Dorothea (4) is listed at 20-1 in the ML by Brisnet. That is 20-1. Won’t get that at PT, but I would take half those odds and be thrilled. This 3YO daughter of Bernardini toss a bad one last out. Sure. I get it. But she won the previous two and one of those was over this track and against some good ones. This is my Upset Special of the Day, and I will bet the 4 across the board and key the 4 over/under the 1-5-9-3-8-10 in the exactas. I will double down on the across the board wager, too. Love the 4 here.
9th: 3-12-9/8-2-1-5/(13)-(14)/6-7/10-11-(15)…Speakinofthedevil (3) is my top pick here. This 2YO son of Daredevil came with a flurry after a terrible start last time out. Was bet down to favoritism in that debut, too. This barn wins with .25% of those that return as a beaten favorite, and that is with a sample size of 974 horses. Gets a top rider up. Sharp work here on Nov. 14. I’m in. Brazen Boy (12) could spice up the odds rack here. This one ran well in the debut over the slop. Could improve mightily over a dry track. Barn wins with .20% on 2nd try. Onasa (9) could be a surprise here, too. This one comes from a dam who has tossed 3 winners from 5 starts and has produced a Stakes winner already, as well. Gets a good gate rider for a trainer who is winning at .26% rate with 323 starters this year. Can’t dismiss, for me. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will also key the 3 over/under the 12-9-8-2-1-5 in two smaller units. I will double down on the 3 across the board, too.
10th: 4-2/1-3/5//6…G3 Falls City Stakes…Played Hard (4) ran 3rd to Malathaat in the G1 Spinster Stakes at KEE last time out. The latter came back to win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Not bad company. This one has a record of 2-3-1 in 7 starts here. Won the G3 Locust Grove Stakes her just two back. Won that one by nearly 6. No doubt this one is the one to beat. No doubt. Bellamore (2) ships in from California for this one and brings a saddle bag worth of credentials along with her. Ran 3rd in a G1 last time out. Won a turf stakes just three starts ago. Has raced on a fast dirt surface 4 times in her life. Two 2nds on the resume. But surface switch is a concern. Admit it. I bet the 4 to win/place and then key the 4 over/under the 2-1-3-5 in the exactas. I will use more with the 2-1-3 than the 5.
11th: 6-5/1-9/4-8/7//3-10/2…G3 Cardinal Stakes…This will be a 11/8-mile test over the improving turf course. And, I will give the edge to Adventuring (6). In a big way. This 4YO daughter of Pioneerof the Nile has just two wins in 6 turf tries, but should improve at this shorter distance. Has speed and should control this one from start to finish. Start. To. Finish. Danika (5) won the G3 Ladies Turf Stakes at KY Downs just two starts ago. In 7 starts here, she has 3 wins and 3 seconds. Nice. Very nice. Loves this track and will pressure the pace, too. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-5 in the exactas. I will key the 6-5 over/under the 1-9-4-8-7 in two smaller units, as well.
12th: 5-7/1/9-2/3-6/4-8-10…The finale is a 7-furlong MSW event for the 2YO fillies and I will give the edge to Secret Statement (5). This daughter of Unhappy came with a huge run last time out and just ran out of ground. Rider is hot of late (4-0-2 in the last 12) and this one should improve immensely here with a little better start. Look out. Just look out. Eyes of Gold (7) could run a good one here and that may just be a bit short. Still, could run a good one. I bet the 5 across the board and then double down and triple down on the win wager. I will box the 5-7 in the exactas. I will also key the 5 over/under the 7-1-9-2-3-6 in two smaller units.
Good Luck, Happy Thanksgiving & All the Best / Geno