Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on “Thurby” — April 5

Only 3 winners on the Wednesday card, but here’s hoping (and praying) that we kick it back into high gear for the remainder of the Derby Week experience. Feeling good about things. Confident. Strong. Sound.

Time to go.

Here’s our looks at Churchill Downs for “Thurby” — May 5:

1st: 8-5/1-3-7/4/6/2…Youvesaiditall (8) drops to half the asking price from the last three outings and the price where this guy was claimed at just two starts ago. If this drop doesn’t help this one pick his head up, a bit, then I don’t know what might do it. Gets the blinkers on for the first time here, too. Gets a new rider, also. Barn wins with .33% on the 2nd start off the claim. Look for major improvement here. The Boss Factor (5) has been facing tougher the last two times out, but if you go back to the last time this one was in for the straight claiming tag, it came at this level and this one ran off to a 9-length victory. Has speed. Will have to be caught. Can he? Nice gate rider takes the irons, again. Look out on top. I bet the 8-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-5 over/under the 1-3-7-4 in two smaller units.

2nd: 1-3/4-7/2-6/5…I’ll go to the rail in the first 2YO race of the day, and that’s always a concern for the first time starter. But this one cost a hefty $170,000 at a 2YO sale earlier this year and now will get the saddle for the first time in real company. Has been training lights out for top connections. I’ll give the edge here. American Apple (3) comes from an older dam who has thrown 11 winners from 12 starters. She has produced 3 Stakes winners, too. Rider has been hot of late, going 3-for-12 in the last week and the work on April 12 was spot on. Look out from the gate here. Could be gone, gone, gone. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 4-7-2-6 in two smaller units.

3rd: 5-8/2-4-6/1-9/3-7…Cove Blue (5) is coming off an impressive turf win last time out at the Fair Grounds. But that was way back in February and now this one moves back to the dirt over a track where he has gone 3-1-0 in 11 previous starts. Last time here, this speedy front-runner won by over 8 lengths and at this same level. Looks like the speed of this race, too. If they let him loose? Bye. Silver N Lai (8) looks to have the 2nd best speed in the race, but can he go with the top pick? I don’t think so. May try to lay back and pounce in the lane. Never raced here before, but the new trainer is as good as they come. One of my all-time favorites. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 2-4-6-1-9 in two smaller units.

4th: 6-7/4-8/3/1-2-5…Baby Yoda (6) is my first “Key Play of the Day.” This 4YO Florida-bred comes into this one off a nice and easy win over at KEE on April 14. Ran away from the crowd to win by nearly 4 lengths. Ran 4 straight Stakes before that one and two of those were Graded. Won’t get many odds here, but this one stands out. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-7 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over (only) the 7-4-8-3-1 in a smaller unit.

5th: 9-2-(17)/4-8-11-(13)/12/5/1-10…This is the first grass race of the day and I will saddle up with Enough Already (9). The connections thought enough of this 3YO son of Tapit that they nominated him to the Triple Crown series of races. Has not shown that ability — yet — but does have two nice starts on the board and resume. Ran 2nd — although well-beaten — by Charge It in the debut race. The latter is running in a little race on Saturday. Something called the Kentucky Derby. James Jones (2) goes for the barn of Chad Brown and this one nearly won on debut at Tampa Bay Downs back in February. Has talent and is bred for the sod, for sure. Gets a huge rider switch here. Chance. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the 9-2 in the exactas. If the 17 draws in? I add that one to the mix, too. I will key the 9-2 over/under the 4-8-11-12 in two smaller units.

6th: 4-1-8/6/2-7/3-5…Bronze Halo (4) gets the nod here. This 4YO gelded son of Runhappy has raced only once before and did OK to be 4th. Gets the blinkers now, and this barn wins with .18% when away this long; with .14% when routing for the first time. Could improve with the move to the dirt. One of the best young trainers in the game today. Big Blue Line (1) ran 2nd on debut, but has struggled in each of the last two outings. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time here. Barn wins with .27% when doing that. Chance. Defied (8) gets the blinkers back on, and this trainer wins with .36% of the last 11 to do that. This barn operator will make his first start with this son of Honor Code. Like the rider switch here, too. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

7th: 2-4-7/3-6-9/1/5/8…Social Dilemma (2) will get Flavien Prat in the saddle for the first time and that move alone could prove positive. Has run 2nd in each of the last two outings and both those came right here last November. Will make the 2022 debut here, and the barn wins with .18% of the layup. Works are encouraging. Downtown Abby (4) goes for a classy barn operator who knows how to win races. This one ran off to a 6+ length win in the debut. No reason she can’t do  it again. Love the sire line here and this one could turn out to be really good. Look out. Belle Rebelle (7) won on debut at the Fair Grounds, as well. Has speed and the “Show” horse in the inaugural run came right back to win the next time out, too. Gets the world’s top rider up. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-6 in two smaller units.

8th: 6-5/4/2/9-11/1-10/3-8-12/7…Opening Verse Stakes…This is a 1-Mile Stakes event and the first of 3 Stakes races in a row. I will line up with Set Piece (6), who will be coming back fort his 2nd 2022 start after running 2 lengths over the winner in the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile at KEE on April 15. Should benefit greatly for that exercise. In 5 races over this sod? Has 4 wins. Loves this place. Huge threat here. Mr Dumas (5) ran a huge one at KEE last time out in an allowance event over the grass. In 5 grass races here, this son of Majesticperfection has 3 wins and a third. Has hit the board in the last 5. Never been sharper. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. Stern. Ly. I will key the 6-5 over/under the 4 in two smaller units.

9th: 8-3-9/1-11/12/4-5/2-10/7-6…Kentucky Juvenile Stakes…This “baby” Stakes used to be held on Derby Day, as well, but the higher-ups decided it was better to move to “Thurby,” and so it was to come to pass. I will give the edge in this 5-furlong sprint over the dirt track to Ryvit (8). This guy got left at the gate in the career debut at KEE and had to muster a huge late run in a 4.5-furlong event just to muster a threat late. If this one can get just a hint of a better start? Look the heck out. Son of Competitive Edge looks the part and has the wheels. I’m all in and at odds of 6-1? This one becomes my first “Upset Special of the Day.” I will? I will bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-11. I will also key the 8 over/under the 3-9-1-11-12-4-5 in two smaller units, as well. 

10th: 5-2-8/4-7/1-9/6…Unbridled Sydney Stakes…This is a 5.5-furlong sprint to be contested over the brand new turf course here at Churchill Downs. I will give the strong lean to Change of Control (5) who is guided throughout her professional life by the talented young trainer Michelle Lovell. This gal is one of the best in the business and a great ambassador for the sport. Better yet? Just a wonderful human. She is easy to root for, and she will send out a talented filly who has 3 wins and a 2nd in 4 career races here, too. The last race was a debacle. She had to come from nearly last to make a case nearing the wire. If she can just break a tad better and get into the race a bit earlier? Look out. Just look out. This one could throw a huge one here. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-2-8 in the extras. I will key the 5 over/under the 2-8-4-7-1-9 in two smaller units, as well.

11th: 4-5-2/9-10/6-7-8/1-3…The day’s finale is a wide, wide, wide open affair. Take a dart. Aim. Fire. Could be the right handicapping angle. I will give the edge to my next “Upset Special of the Day” — Mrs. Nushi (4). This one is 6-1 in the ML and she could get the job done here. Ran a solid 3rd here back last November. Will get the Lasix for the 2nd time, and this barn wins with .14% of those kind. Gets a really nice gate rider and this one does have some back class to lean on. Chance. Somebody Loves Me (5) has not been close yet, but tumbles into the MCL ranks here for the first time. This trainer wins with a whopping .29% when making the drop. Works solid enough. Gets one of he best riders in the game. Period. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 2-9-10-6-7-8 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene