Total Day Results 9 / 5-2-3
2021 Overall 644 644 / 231-237-262
Win % of Top Pick 35.87%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 37.78%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 413-644 64.13%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 22-28 78.57%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 13-28 46.43%
“Key Horses” @ CD 1 / 1-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 99 / 43-23-7 43.43% Win / 73.74% ITM

Another solid day at the big oval on Wednesday. Now, it is time for “Thurby.” Let’s keep that momentum going and have us a good ole’ Kentucky Derby Week.

Here’s our looks for Thursday:

Churchill Downs – Thurby Card:

1st: 7-6-1/2…Dixieland Dream (7) didn’t much care for the sloppy conditions that she encountered in the last race at Oaklawn Park on April  9. Backed out of it early after going way wide, too. Gets a new rider up and should fit better with these – if the track is dry. Out Ona Limb (6) is our first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is by Daredevil, who had a super year in 2020 and this one is climbing up a couple of ranks in the claiming game. Barn wins with .16% of those that move up and face winners for the first time, too. Love this rider choice. Dianna’s Jet (1) is another from the same barn as the #6. Drops in class after a solid 3rd last time out when going farther. Cut back in distance should help and could be dangerous on the front end here. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will also key the top 3 over/under the 2 in two smaller units.

 

2nd: 5/1-6-3…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Longleggedlaverne (5). This 4YO American Lion filly was claimed last time out and inches up in the purchase column. Overt the last two, this one has a win and a 2nd. In 4 starts here, this one has two wins and a third. At this distance? Eight starts. Five wins and a second and a third. Adds up for me with a top rider getting the mount. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the 1-6-3.

 

3rd: 6-3-5/7/2-8/4-1/1A…Tea Olive (6) is a 2YO daughter of First Samurai, and, more importantly, is trained by the “Guru of the Baby Races” – Wesley Ward. Barn wins with .31% of those that make the career debut, and with .29% of those that do it in the MSW ranks. Has teamed up with this HOF rider to go 5-3-3 in the last 18 mounts and the rider has won with .27% of the last 22 mounts for this trainer. Choice. Gunite (3) is a 2YO son of Gun Runner and is owned by the same connections that raced the sire. This one has been training lights out for a HOF trainer. Look for a spark early and often. Twenty Four Mamba (5) has trained exceptionally well for a barn that likes to kick start them early. Gets a top rider in the irons and that work on April 22 is spot on. Chance. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 7 in two smaller units.

 

4th: 7-6-1/2-3/4/5…Ms V Time (7) drops all the way to the $20,000 price tag for this one after competing at the $50,000 level last time out. In the three previous tries, this one had two thirds and a win. I can toss the last one. Too aggressive a spot, maybe. Fits here and the rider is a regular for this barn operation. Could lead them gate to wire. Breonna (6) ran over a muddy track last time out and fought the conditions and the crowd all the way around. Drops significantly for this one and goes back to the sprint distance, too. Barn wins with .17% when shortening up. Could be a tough out here. Double Dare You (1) falls back into the claiming ranks after an ambitious move up in class last time out. Look for this one to flash the speed from the rail and the rider who was up for the win two races back returns to the saddle. Big threat here at a price, perhaps. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-3 in two smaller units.

 

5th: 1-3/(14)-2/10-8-11/6-(1A)-7-9/5-12…This one is scheduled for the turf, if it isn’t rained off and moved to the main surface. Either way, I go with my top pick – Win Worthy (1). This one ran a huge one on debut on March 20 at the Fair Grounds. Led late and gave way grudgingly in the late stage. Keeps a top rider in the irons and this one has the ability to flash speed when the rider asks. Trainer wins with .25% of the last 28 to run their 2nd start over the sod. My solid pick. Dolder Grand (3) ran a real good one two races back, when 2nd by a skinny nose. Had a rough and wide trip last time out. Compromised by the long-way around. Gets a new rider for this one, and could be a big threat with a ground-saving event. Look for more here. I bet the 1-3 across the board, and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 14-2-10-8-11-6 in two smaller units.

 

6th: 4/5-3/6/7/2-1…My second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Keep Your Distance (4). This 7YO mare goes for one of the top claiming trainers in the world, and he is winning at a .23% clip over the last 1,401 races. This one has won the last three and has hit the board in the last 6 races. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 5-3-6 than the rest.

 

7th: 6-3-4/2-5-7/1…Almashriq (6) drops in class to the claiming ranks for the first time ever. Barn wins with .27% of those that do that, and that’s with the last 182 runners. The rider has gone 6-1-4 in the last 14 mounts over the last week. This 5YO son of War Front cost $1.2 million at the 2017 KEE September Yearling Sale. Luck of the Draw (3) is a Louisiana-bred who will face open company in this one. Nearly won last time out when facing the muddy  conditions. In three tries over an “off track,” this one has a second and a third. Borracho (4) drops out of a G3 Stakes into the claiming ranks for a trainer who wins with .17% of those going turf to dirt. Gets a top rider up. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 3-2-5-7-1 in two smaller units.

 

8th: 4-8-9/1-7/3-5/2-6…Opening Verse Stakes…This is scheduled to be a turf event contested at the 1-mile distance. But it may be turned into a dirt route, instead. No matter. It was last year, too. Either way, I will stick with my numbers. Logical Myth (4) ran a very solid 2nd in the last effort that was moved from turf to dirt. Since then, he has two wins, a second and a third. Good right now and gets a huge switch in riders here. Big time threat. Captivating Moon (8) is 1-3-0 in 6 tries over an “off track,” and is 3-1-1 in 8 tries over the sod. I can toss the last one when he was steered 6-wide. Gets a new rider who has been on his back before. Look for more out of this one. Spectacular Gem (9) is my next “Upset Special of the Day.” This 5YO horse nearly won last time out and in 4 tries here, he has two wins. In 2 “off track” races, he has two thirds. Trainer wins with .23% in non-Graded Stakes events. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-7 in two smaller units.

 

9th: 1-7/2/6/5-3…Primacy (1) is the ML favorite, and figures to be the favorite when they reach the starting gate, too. This one has not been out since last August. But this one is training very well for a barn operator who knows how to get them ready off the bench. Gets a HOF rider up, and the first three starts resulted in a win; a second and a third. Very capable here. Skinny Dip (7) won the maiden last time out by over 6 lengths. Barn wins with .25% when moving up to face winners for the first time. One win came over an “off track,” too. Look out. Could be a real good one, and is by Into Mischief. I bet the 1-7 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 1-7 over/under the 2 in two smaller units.

 

10th: 1-4-2/6-8/7-9-3/(11)-(12)/10…Unbridled Sydney Stakes…This is another scheduled for the turf, and this one will be set up for the specialty sprint distance of 5.5 furlongs. If it stays on the sod, I will give the edge to Into Mystic (1). This one has started this distance 7 times. Has 2 wins and 3 seconds. Almost scored last time out at KEE, losing at the wire. Returns as a beaten favorite now, and the barn wins with a whopping .27% of those kind. Gets a top grass rider up. Has to go a bit from the rail. Could that compromise the chance? Oleksandra (4) will only go if it stays on the sod, IMO. This one is the best closer in the field. If the speed tears it up, look for this great rider to hit the lick late. Could score here. Change of Control (2) is a filly who came late to win the Giant’s Causeway at KEE last time out. In 15 starts at this distance? Has a 5-3-3 record. Love the trainer. She does a super job with the stock in the barn, and this one won the last time out without the Lasix. Big note. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-8 in two smaller units.

 

11th: 4-5/3-7/2-1…The finale is a 7-furlong event over the main track, and I will saddle up with No Obligation (4). This 3YO gelded son of Street Boss is dropping into the MCL ranks and the barn wins with .32% of those. Loses the blinkers, too, and the barn wins with .22% of those kind. Will get to the dirt for the first time. That may help. Lemon and Diem (5) was claimed last time out and the new barn operation wins with .10% on the first try after that happens. This will be the 2nd start off a layup, too, and the barn wins with .18% of those. Gets a huge change in the riders, and could be dangerous in this spot. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 4-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.

 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene