|Day Results||10 / 3-4-5|
|2020 Overall 605||605 / 212-197-239|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.04%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.72%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –383-605||63.31%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Spring-Summer: 67-113||59.29%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Spring-Summer: 36-113||31.86%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Spring-Summer:8-3-2-2||37.50% Win / 87.5% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 80-25-19-12||31.25% Win / 70.00% ITM|
(Gene and grandson Jack at Keeneland)
We start a new week, and we start handicapping anew, too.
Last week was a struggle, for some of us. We did manage to carve out 3 winners on Sunday to salvage a little cash on Sunday, but we certainly hope to do better. Starting today.
Here’s a look at the Thursday card:
1st: 2-7-1/6-3-5…Foreign Exchange (2) gets the nod in the lid-lifter. This 3YO Congrats filly hails from the barn of Coach D. Wayne Lukas — who has a sparkling 2-0-2 record in the first 9 starts this meet. This filly drops to the $20,000 claiming tag here, and she won at this same level at Oaklawn Park two starts back. Has a 2-0-1 mark at the distance and a sharp workout on May 27. Will be coming from off the pace, but look for much more than the last race — when she had no chance after a horrid break and wide trip. Skyvalue (7) broke the maiden last time out and now moves up to face winners for the first time. Barn hits with only .08% of those. Has speed and gets a nice rider to take the reins for the first time. If the rains hit today, I get more skeptical here. French Rose (1) has not faired well in either of the last two outings. But look who she was facing. Bonny South in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks and Four Graces, who will be favored in the G3 Dogwood here on Saturday. A little tough. Now, she drops to the $20,000 claiming level? Has a win over turf and dirt, both. Has some speed and has some ability, too. Could be a square price here, as well. Could be a nice claim prospect. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.
2nd: 4-1-3/6-7-8/5-2…Delp (4) is a 3YO gelded son of Include and totes the saddle for the Tom Amoss barn. This outfit is starting to heat up here. The trainer and jockey have combined to go 3-0-0 in the last 9 starts. This one was claimed two starts ago for $30,000. Ran third over the dirt at Oaklawn and now is being offered up for $20,000. Fits here and I like the last work, as well. Could be spot on here at a nice price. Urbanite (1) broke the maiden last time out by 3 lengths. Now, moves up to face winners for a barn that hits with .21% of those making the climb. Key factor in the last race may have been the addition of blinkers for the first time, too. Showed a lot more speed in the drop into the claiming ranks. Beware here. Lord Dragon (3) drops to a career low level in this one and picks up a nice rider in the switch. Will be coming very late and does have a second and a third in four previous runs here. But the trainer has been blanked in five starts this meet and this gelding has never hit the board at this distance, either. Hmm. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 3-6-7-8-5-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 9-4-5/2-8/6-3…Freshman Class (9) gets my checkmark here. This 4YO daughter of Union Rags is being offered up for $30,000, although she cost $250,000 to purchase at the 2017 KEE September Yearling Sale. She drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn hits with .34% of those kind — with 41 sample pool. Love the rider choice. And, like the return to the dirt. This one comes from a Stakes-winning dam who has produced 2 winners from the first 3 starters. Claim prospect. Flashy Biz (4) drops back into the claiming ranks after a late run in the last race at the MSW level. Spotty record. Does have 2 seconds and a third in 111 starts. Has some clunkers, too. Carefree Highway (5) drops from a $75,000 level to $30,000 here. Ran well in the last outing, too. Barn hits with .28% of those that make this kind of class drop and with .20% when switching from the turf to the dirt. Chance. I bet the 9-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 9-5 over/under the 2-8-6-3 in two smaller units.
4th: (12)-(11)-6/3-10-8/4-9-(13)-2…The first grass race scheduled is a 5.5-furlong sprint event. If either or both the 12 or 11 get in from the AE List, they go right to the top of the class order. If not, I will go with Road to Romance (6). The 2YO daughter of Quality Road cost the connections $220,000 to purchase at the 2018 KEE November Sale — as a weanling. Has been under the careful watch of Team Mark Casse since and has been tutored down at the Casse Training Center in Ocala. Trainer has only 1 win in the first 23 starts here this meet. Should warm up with this kind of stock. Sharp work here on May 29. If this one stays on the grass, she should relish it. Dam has one turf winner from 3 starters. Gets a solid grass rider in the irons. I bet the 12-11 if either or both draw in. If not, I will be the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the numbers listed.
5th: 7/3-1-8-4/2-5-6…The first Key Play of the Day (and there are several on this card) comes here with Silver Ride (7). After winning the first three starts of the meet, the barn has turned a bit cold. Has lost 5 in a row since then. But this one drops from the $32,000 level all the way to $16,000 today. Has never been offered up for this low a price tag. Distance is not the specialty for this one. In 17 starts at this distance, he has 2 wins and 10 thirds. Wow. But gets the barn’s go-to rider and the barn hits with .31% of those that drop this much in one swoop. Should be coming late and coming strong. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the numbers listed. I will box the 3-1-8-4 in one small exacta, as well, just to cover.
6th: 9/(15)-(14)-12-1/10-5/2-3-4…The second Key Play of the Day comes here with Botero (9), who is listed at 6-5 in the ML odds. This 5YO son of Medaglia d’Oro has run two good ones in a row against tougher comp. Now, the Brad Cox pupil is dropped in for $10,000 — which is the lowest price tag to date. Has lost the last two against tougher by just a neck margin in each. If he runs the same race back, he will be a tough out here. Interesting rider choice for this barn. But in 5 mounts over the last 60 days? The jockey has won with .40%. Nice number. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then key the 9 over/under the numbers listed.
7th: 10-2-9-(15)/5-3/6-8-7-1-12…This is the second turf event carded today and it will be contested at the two-turn distance of 11/16-miles. I go to the outside to find my top selection — Seat of Hope (10). This one will be making the second career start for the new barn operation, and it hits with .17% of those. Ran a good one here on May 16 — after a year layoff. If he improves at all off that effort, he should be tough in this spot with the return to the grass. Rider has teamed up with this trainer to go 2-0-1 in the last 5 starts over the past two weeks. Scabbard (2) started this year as one of my top 20 selections for the KY Derby. But we all know that 2020 has been a very strange year. The 3YO gelding has gone 0-0-0 in three starts this year after running 4th to Storm the Court in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November at Santa Anita. This one is by More Than Ready and should adapt and adopt the grass for the first time. Maybe this shakes him up. If it does? Watch out. Mantra (9) ran a good one here on May 16, too. Nipped our top selection. Returns to the grass today and that should help this one. In 11 turf runs to date, he has 2 wins and 4 seconds. I bet the 10-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 6/3-4-7/1-5-8/9…The third and final Key Play of the Day is likely to be 1-9 at PT. Seriously. Guarana (6) is a monster filly from the barn of trainer Chad Brown. She broke the maiden last April by 14 at Keeneland. In her second start, she won the G1 Acorn Stakes by 6 lengths and beat the KY Oaks winner that day. A month later, she won her second G1 event — the Coaching Club of America Stakes — over Point of Honor. Her only loss came in her last start in the G1 Cotillion Stakes. Lost to Street Band over a funky track at Parx. Love the last work. Air time. I bet the 6 to win. Key the 6 over the 3-4-7-1.
9th: 4-6-7/(14)8-(16)10/(13)-2-1-4-11…Dreamonmebaby (4) is a 3YO son of Constitution that was nominated to the Triple Crown series. Will now be offered up for $30,000 price tag. Should be a claim candidate at this level. Beaten just 2 at the $40,000 level last time out. Gets the blinkers for the first time today, and the barn hits with .18% of those. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .19% of those. Gets a hot rider, too. Adds up for me. American Humor (6) is a first time starter for a barn that wins with .25% in the Maiden Claiming ranks. Dam of this one has a winner from 2 starters. Kid Shelleen (7) will be making the debut for the Brad Cox. Dam has 4 winners from 8 starters and has produced one Stakes winner. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 4 over/under the 6-7-14-8-16-10.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene